environment and natural resources

Campana to direct OSU Water and Watersheds program

CORVALLIS, Ore. - Michael E. Campana, a hydrogeologist and international expert on a range of complex water management issues, has been named the director of the Institute for Water and Watersheds at Oregon State University.

Campana is currently the director of the Water Resources Program at the University of New Mexico, and will begin his position at OSU next spring. He will succeed John Bolte, interim director of this OSU institute that involves the work of more than 80 faculty members in six colleges.

Campana, who received a doctorate in hydrology from the University of Arizona, has done extensive research on water resources in developing countries, transboundary water resource issues, water allocation and availability, and other areas. He is also founder and president of a charitable foundation that funds and undertakes water, health and sanitation projects in developing nations.

"Oregon is facing a variety of water and environmental problems," Campana said. "OSU's water expertise must be brought to bear in solving these problems, and the Institute for Water and Watersheds needs to reach a point where it is the first organization Oregonians think of when water issues arise."

Campana said he hopes to focus the institute's efforts on large, multidisciplinary, long-term projects, and significantly increase external funding for water research activities at the university, which is now about $11 million a year. He also hopes to boost educational and outreach programs, aid the creation of science-based water policy, bring more leading national experts to Oregon for lectures and other work, and develop more student scholarships for OSU water programs.

Much of his recent work has been in foreign countries in Central America, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, Campana said, and he plans to increase OSU's international visibility in projects such as this. Campana has served on a number of federal research committees, is the past chair of the 10,000-member Association of Ground Water Scientists and Engineers, and has participated in many other national and international water research and management initiatives.

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Michael Campana, 505-277-5249

Multimedia Downloads

Michael Campana

"Bottom-up" forestry success stories outlined in video

CORVALLIS, Ore. - Improved communications and relationship building at the local level may offer at least a partial solution to the complex fire management and fuel buildup issues in western forests, according to experts at Oregon State University. Success stories in this arena offer lessons for others.

To help bring these lessons and techniques to a much broader audience, forest social scientists at OSU have produced a free training video and brochure to aid land managers, interest groups and the public in creating more effective citizen-agency partnerships - an attempt to replace traditional conflicts with communication and cooperation.

"It's been clear for a while now that some of the problems that always seem to end up in court at a state or national level can actually have solutions at a local level," said Bruce Shindler, a professor in the OSU Department of Forest Resources. "And these solutions seem to have a lot more to do with trust, personal relationships and communication than they do with forest science or ecology. So what we're trying to do is identify what has worked and help more people use these approaches."

Toward that goal, Shindler and graduate student Ryan Gordon created a 25-minute DVD, "Communication Strategies for Fire Management," and a written supplement, "A Practical Guide to Citizen-Agency Partnerships." Both are free on request, via e-mail at bruce.shindler@oregonstate.edu

The underlying problems are huge, the scientists say.

"Almost everyone in the West is aware of the critical situations facing many of our forests, which have trees at high density, decades of fire suppression, problems with disease, insect infestations and catastrophic wildfire," Shindler said. "And this is not just a rural or natural resource issue. The National Fire Plan indicates there are 11,000 communities in the West facing serious risks from wildfire."

In recent years, forest researchers and ecologists have developed a fairly broad range of tools to help address these problems - everything from controlled use of fire to thinning, selective herbicides, understory mowing and other approaches. But fuel reduction and land management strategies have often failed when they lack a buy-in from local communities, residents and interest groups, Shindler said.

In studies in eight western states, Shindler has examined how people work together on natural resource issues, what the general public knows, how they feel about agency actions and competency, and many other topics. Mistrust of government agencies is often high, and the recent past has been marked more by failed initiatives and courtroom combat than active programs to restore forest health.

"The scientific knowledge base about fuel reduction and land management has improved dramatically and we're still learning more all the time," Shindler said. "But the problem is not that simple. We find success when the local community is involved in fire plans from the beginning, feels they are part of the solution, where relationships are built, and people understand the complexity of the issues."

Three success stories where that has actually occurred are outlined in the new OSU video, from case studies on the Sisters Ranger District in the Central Oregon Cascade Range; the "Seven Basins" area near Rogue River in Southern Oregon; and at Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park.

The advances made near Sisters, Ore., are particularly interesting. A local interest group called Friends of the Metolius has worked with Forest Service officials in intensive public meetings and outreach efforts. Local residents even contributed about $35,000 to set up demonstration sites, where people can see the results of prescribed fire, thinning, mowing and other forest treatments. Local leaders helped organize tours after a recent fire in the nearby Cascade Range. A bus driver volunteered her time to help take dozens of affected residents into the burned areas and agency resource specialists led discussions about the effects of the fire. And a 14,000-acre land management plan with many progressive features has been largely embraced by everyone from agency officials to community leaders and environmental interest groups.

In Southern Oregon, the OSU Extension Service also became involved with local citizens, and the results again look promising - small groups of involved people, out in the woods, discussing the issues and becoming part of the solution.

These "bottom-up" approaches, Shindler said, are almost the opposite of top-down leadership by high government or agency officials. The process is grass roots, and it seems to work.

"I knew it was going to take a lot of personal commitment on my part to build relationships and trust," said Bill Anthony, district ranger on the Sisters Ranger District. "That only comes from spending time with people, interacting with them, sitting down in the middle of them."

When officials realize the problems are as much about trust and relationships as they are about science and land management techniques, the door is often open to progress, Shindler said.

"It's not always easy," he said. "These are fire managers, not public relations professionals. But that's what our new video and support materials are about, to help show more people what has worked elsewhere and might also work in their communities. We hope more people can take advantage of it."

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Bruce Shindler, 541-737-3299

OSU Extension offers well water, septic system workshops

CORVALLIS - The Oregon State University Extension Service is offering three sessions of a free class this October to rural residents interested in learning how to maintain their drinking water wells and septic systems.

The class, called "Rural Living Basics," will also provide information on protecting community groundwater.

The sessions will be offered in Linn, Benton and Lane counties and are free of charge, though interested persons should register in advance (information provided below). Instructors are Gail Andrews and Jacqueline Fern of the OSU Extension Service.

A free nitrate screening of well water is offered as part of the class. For the screening, bring a half cup of untreated well water in a clean container a few minutes before the class begins. Results will be available by the end of the class.

"It is especially important for households with pregnant women or newborns to test for nitrates because of a rare type of blue-baby syndrome," Andrews said. "All residents with private wells should be aware of their nitrate level."

The "Rural Living Basics" class is sponsored by the Southern Willamette Valley Groundwater Management Area project team, a multi-agency partnership working to address local nitrate contamination issues. Project information is available at http://groundwater.oregonstate.edu/Willamette. Information on the OSU Well Water Program is available at well.water@oregonstate.edu, or by calling 541-737-6295. Class sessions are scheduled for:

Albany: Oct. 27, from 11 a.m. to 1:30 p.m., at the Linn County/OSU Extension Downing Room, 4th Street and Lyons. To register, call the Linn County Extension office at 541-967-3871, or e-mail Laurie.Gibson@oregonstate.edu

Corvallis: Oct. 25, from 6:30 to 9 p.m., at the Corvallis-Benton County Public Library, 6th Street and Monroe. To register, call the OSU/Benton County Extension Office at 541-766-6750, or e-mail marie.madison@oregonstate.edu

Eugene: Oct. 19, from 11 a.m. to 1:30 p.m., at the OSU/Lane County Extension Office, 950 W. 13th Ave. To register, call the office at 541-682-4243, or 1-800-872-8980, or send an e-mail to LaneCounty.Extension@oregonstate.edu

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Gail Andrews, 541-737-6294

Array of sensors watching the forest breathe

BLUE RIVER, Ore. - A sophisticated array of electronic sensors in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest is giving ecologists at Oregon State University a view of the forest ecosystem they've never had before: They are literally watching the forest breathe, the plants interact with and feed the soil microbes and rivers of air pour up and down slopes in ways never before understood.

The studies relate to a concept that explorers such as Columbus and Magellan demonstrated 500 years ago - the Earth is not flat. Neither are forests in mountainous terrain, but many existing concepts and models of forest processes have been based on the way these systems function on fairly flat land.

Now, with years of work at one of the nation's premier outdoor ecological laboratories in the central Oregon Cascade Range, a new understanding is emerging of how the forest watersheds and "airsheds" interact, creating complex micro-climates and hydrological cycles in the steep, hilly terrain.

The studies should be further amplified in coming years with a new $1.1-million grant from the National Science Foundation that will help place a new generation of battery-free, interactive sensors over a much larger area to further enhance the data stream coming from the forest into OSU laboratories.

"Topography has an enormous impact on forest ecology. It creates all kinds of different interactions compared to flat land," said Barbara Bond, a professor of forest tree physiology in the OSU Department of Forest Science. "You get different temperature gradients, micro-climate, humidity, air and water movement, carbon dioxide concentrations and sometimes protective buffers."

But historically, Bond said, flat terrain has been an easier, less costly environment in which to do experiments, and much of the science about forest processes is based on data from such areas. Most research has also been done by people from individual disciplines, looking at tiny pieces of the puzzle.

"What we need to do now is look at where we really grow most of our trees, which is in mountainous terrain," Bond said. "And we need to bring together the ecosystem scientists, the atmospheric experts, the engineers and soil scientists, and try to put all the pieces back together to really understand how the whole system works."

The current research at the H.J. Andrews Forest is doing that, Bond said, and already yielding surprising results. Among the findings:

  • The night drainage of cold air down slopes is fast, deep and well developed, like a river of air careening down the landscape;
  • These large air flows carry with them respired carbon dioxide from plants and trees, which provides a signal based on carbon isotopes that is related to plant stress, and could be used to monitor plant stress over large areas;
  • Fluxes of carbon move back and forth between trees and soils on a constant basis, as the soil provides water and nutrients to the plants, and the plants in turn feed the soil microbes.

    "What we've learned about the interactive relationship between plants and microbes has been one of the most fascinating results," Bond said. "This is a two-way street, with water and nutrients going up, and sugars coming down from the leaves into the soil to feed the microbes there. The plants are like the farmers of the below-ground microbial community."

    This process is also fast. During daylight there's a flush of new carbon moving from the atmosphere into the tree that appears to work its way into the soil within literally a few hours. And measurement and monitoring of this process, researchers believe, may ultimately provide a picture of tree stress - such as during periods of drought or climate change.

    "We believe that a comprehensive understanding of a forest airshed will give us a range of information about the health and physiological status of the forest, much like a doctor can tell a lot about your health from a blood sample," Bond said. "Related to the issue of climate change, we may be able to see trees under stress much earlier, well before they begin to show visible symptoms or problems."

    In the field work on this project, scientists take gas samples from soil depths at different times of day, including the middle of the night. Study plots are also located adjacent to other sites where such issues as tree growth, stream flow and stream chemistry are being analyzed, to ultimately provide a very comprehensive view of forest ecology.

    The studies may also raise questions about other important topics related to climate change, such as carbon sequestration. Growth of forests has often been viewed as a mechanism to remove or "sequester" carbon from the atmosphere and help offset the increases provided by human activity, including the use of fossil fuels.

    "However, results from this and other studies are suggesting that a lot of carbon does not go to plant or tree growth at all, but rather is just being pumped through the roots into the soil, where a lot of it is quickly respired back into the atmosphere," Bond said. "This means that carbon sequestration may not be tightly linked to the photosynthetic rate of plants. It may not be that simple."

    Elizabeth Sulzman, an assistant professor of soil science at OSU working on this project, said there's a remarkable variation in soil activity in forests that must be considered before researchers will fully understand the big picture.

    "Soil can be so different from one spot to another, just a foot or two away," Sulzman said. "It has a lot to do with distance from plant roots and the sugars or exudates they provide. The link between soil, plant and atmosphere still has a lot of questions we have to answer."

  • Story By: 

    Barbara Bond, 541-737-6110

    Documentary DVD examines Columbia River history

    CORVALLIS - A new documentary DVD from the Oregon Sea Grant program headquartered at Oregon State University examines a turning point in the history of the Pacific Northwest.

    For millennia Celilo Falls was a great Native American fishery on the mid-Columbia River, and it drew native peoples from throughout the West to trade for salmon. But in 1957 the federal government began operation of a giant hydroelectric dam at The Dalles that wiped out Celilo Falls and ended the fishery there.

    The documentary, "Celilo Falls and the Remaking of the Columbia River," provides a glimpse of life at Celilo as it once was and considers the cultural, social, and political forces that brought about its end, signaling a new era in the relationship between people and nature.

    The Native American experience at Celilo is conveyed through previously unpublished color film footage of the fishery and many historic photographs, while the history of the development of the Columbia for industry and commerce is presented through archival film footage from the Bonneville Power Administration, the Oregon Historical Society, and other sources.

    The documentary was written, edited and produced by Joseph Cone, assistant director of Oregon Sea Grant. He is the author of "A Common Fate: Endangered Salmon and the People of the Pacific Northwest" and co-editor of "The Northwest Salmon Crisis: A Documentary History."

    The 31-minute documentary is available from Oregon Sea Grant, 322 Kerr Administration, OSU, Corvallis OR 97331-2131. To preserve as much as possible the original quality of the historic film and photographic images, the program is available only on DVD. Price per DVD is $19.95 plus shipping ($2 first copy; $1 each additional copy).


    Joseph Cone, 541-737-0756


    CORVALLIS - A group of experts from four western states and British Columbia are going to spend the next year producing what they say will be one of the most blunt, honest evaluations ever done on the status of wild salmon in the Pacific Northwest and what it would actually take to save them.

    These salmon and policy experts will collaborate on two symposiums and a published book with their conclusions, which may represent a wide diversity of opinion and suggested changes - some of which could be extreme.

    The initiative, called the Salmon 2100 Project, is being organized by the Center for Water and Environmental Sustainability at Oregon State University, and the EPA laboratory in Corvallis, Ore.

    "We don't really expect to end up with a single solution everyone will agree on, there may be a suite of options for the public and policy makers to sort through," said Robert Lackey, a senior fisheries biologist at the EPA and courtesy professor of fisheries and wildlife at OSU. "But we're going to find out what the leading experts in this field really believe has to be done if we are serious about saving wild salmon."

    "Their statements will be what they believe personally, based on many years of experience, and will not be a reflection of a government, group or agency policy," Lackey said. "We expect some of the proposed solutions will be pretty drastic."

    According to Lackey and Denise Lach, co-director of OSU's Center for Water and Environmental Sustainability, many leading experts have grave doubts whether the vast amount of resources and funds that have been poured into salmon protection and restoration have worked.

    "Many of the people who are participating in our project are interested precisely because they have spent their careers working on salmon recovery projects that ultimately did not succeed," said Lach. "We've spent billions of dollars, caused a lot of social disruption, but to what purpose? And if the truth is that wild salmon are going to largely disappear in this region, are we being honest with the public?"

    The problems leading to the decline of wild salmon runs are well catalogued, Lackey and Lach said. They include water pollution, loss of habitat, over-fishing, dam construction and operation, water use for irrigation and other purposes, competition with hatchery-produced salmon, predation by other species, diseases and parasites, and climatic and oceanic shifts.

    And the greatest future threat, in addition to all of that, may be huge population growth that compounds any or all of these other problems.

    Much less clear, they say, is what - if anything - can realistically reverse this process and preserve wild salmon runs beyond 2100.

    "People often say they want to preserve wild salmon, so we want to lay out for the public and policy makers what it will actually take to do that, in the opinion of some of the leading experts," Lackey said. "The forces at work are getting more difficult all the time, the pressures of population, commerce, energy demands, water scarcity. The real solutions may call for huge, huge changes, and we may need to do more than just talk while we ignore fundamental trends."

    "And it may be that society will decide, once people really understand the facts, that salmon are not worth that much trouble and expense," Lackey said. "Saving salmon is not just about a fishery, it's about our social values, our goals and competing public priorities. But the first step is an honest, blunt assessment so we can make informed choices."

    The 28 participants in this project include science and policy experts with a background in academia, regulatory agencies, Indian tribes, environmental groups, industry and others. Several are retired, and none will be speaking on behalf of the agency or organization they work for, now or in the past.

    The challenge put to the group, Lackey and Lach said, is to identify and describe specific, practical policy options that, if adopted, would successfully sustain significant numbers of wild salmon through this century.

    Two symposiums will be held to present preliminary conclusions in February and September, 2005, and a book on the conclusions of participants will be published by January, 2006, officials say.

    All of the participants in the project are donating their time and publications for free. The book that results from the project will be published by the American Fisheries Society.

    Story By: 

    Robert Lackey, 541-754-4607


    CORVALLIS - Environmental philosophers, Christian, Buddhist and Islamic scholars, a noted astronomer and a Pulitzer Prize-winning Native American author will join forces at Oregon State University Oct. 28-30 for a special symposium examining the relationship between nature and different conceptions of sacredness.

    Called "Nature and the Sacred: A Fierce Green Fire," the symposium will be held at LaSells Stewart Center in Corvallis. Cost is $90. Registration information and the entire schedule of the symposium is available at http://oregonstate.edu/cla/natureandsacred.

    "The symposium is going to be a creative conversation about the relation of nature to the sacred and what that means in our lives," said Charles Goodrich, an instructor with the Spring Creek Project at OSU. "The diversity of our speakers is exceptional. Experiencing their wisdom and their insights will be inspiring."

    Leading off the symposium will be a lecture Thursday at 7 p.m. by N. Scott Momaday, one of the country's leading Native American scholars and authors, and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for his novel, "House Made of Dawn."

    Presenters on Friday and Saturday include:

    • Marcus Borg, the Hundere Chair in Religion and Culture at OSU and one of the nation's foremost biblical and historical Jesus scholars;


    • Joanna Macy, a leading peace activist and Buddhist scholar who wrote "Despair and Personal Power in the Nuclear Age";


    • Kathleen Dean Moore, a distinguished professor of philosophy at OSU, an award-winning author and director of the Spring Creek Project for Ideas, Nature and the Written Word;


    • Seyyid Hossein Nasr, a professor of Islam studies at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and one of the world's foremost scholars of Islam;


    • Chet Raymo, an astronomer and professor of physics at Stonehill College in Massachusetts, and a science columnist for the Boston Globe.

    On Friday evening, Raymo will read from his works on astronomy in tandem with a performance by the Corvallis-OSU Symphony. The concert, says Goodrich, will be a "feast for the ears, the mind, the eyes, the heart."

    "Imagine Haydn's 'Oratorio' along with readings in celebration of creation by astronomer Chet Raymo and images from the Hubble telescope of explosions at the beginning of time," Goodrich said. "Then, for the grand finale, the world premier of 'In the Beginning,' (OSU professor) Michael Coolen's piece for orchestra, choir and universe - it will be an exceptional evening of science, music and poetry."

    The symposium will conclude on Saturday with a celebration of action on behalf of nature, Goodrich said. Saturday's program, "Catching Fire: Vision into Action," is free and open to the public. It will include readings by writers Susan Zwinger, John Daniel, Robin Kimmerer and others; a performance and workshop by African drumming group Common Pulse; a nature writing workshop; musical performances and poetry readings; mask making; and information tables and displays.

    Story By: 

    Charles Goodrich, 541-737-6198

    Salmon experts: Current policies don't work; ideas unveiled

    CORVALLIS, Ore. - Current efforts to save wild salmon in the Pacific Northwest and California almost certainly will fail. This appears to be the grim conclusion of 30 salmon scientists, policy analysts and wild salmon advocates participating in a year-long initiative to create policy options that would sustain wild runs of salmon in the West.

    While agreeing that a new approach is needed, participants differ widely on what it will take to save wild salmon. Many of the suggested remedies - from reducing the population of the Northwest to removing major dams from rivers to advocating significant lifestyle changes - would likely be politically or culturally unpalatable. Yet their proponents say success would require that level of commitment.

    Many of the prescriptions for sustaining wild salmon runs will get an opportunity to be presented and defended at a special symposium Sept. 15 in Anchorage, Alaska, on the final day of the annual meeting of the American Fisheries Society. About 2,000 fisheries scientists, managers, and other professionals are expected to attend the meeting.

    The Salmon 2100 Project was organized by the Center for Water and Environmental Sustainability at Oregon State University, and the federal Environmental Protection Agency Research Laboratory in Corvallis.

    "We're not asking the question about whether we should be saving wild salmon runs," said Robert T. Lackey, a senior fisheries biologist at EPA and a courtesy professor in the OSU Department of Fisheries and Wildlife. "That question is a value judgment that people ultimately will decide. Our goal was to have 30 people, from different backgrounds and perspectives, answer the question: What specific policies must be implemented in order to have a high probability of sustaining significant runs of wild salmon through 2100 in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho and southern British Columbia?"

    Lackey said that all participants believe there are policies that could safeguard wild salmon runs. Many of those recommendations, however, are contradictory, would require changes in the Endangered Species Act and other laws or would be unlikely to achieve public acceptance, he said.

    OSU sociologist Denise Lach, also a project leader, said it was intriguing to note what policies were not suggested by the participants.

    "No one suggested population control, abrogating Native American treaties, or shifting from hydropower to nuclear, coal or other types of fuel," she said. "And no one advocated stopping the harvest of salmon, which are the only endangered species that we actually still hunt."

    The policy suggestions tend to fall into four general categories, the project leaders say.

    One group of analysts believes the way to preserve runs is through science and engineering, and suggests a variety of actions ranging from using hatcheries to genetically modify fish to the creation of artificial streams and spawning channels that would bypass dams and areas of poor habitat. One prescriptive suggestion was to focus fiscal resources on fertilizing or otherwise improving the oceans environment rather than trying to improve habitat on land.

    A number of proposals were regulatory in nature. Suggestions included reforming bureaucracies, creating a "salmon czar," establishing a Homeland Security-type of agency to oversee salmon protection and recovery, and implementing much stronger regulations aimed at improving and protecting habitat.

    A third group of policy suggestions fit into what Lackey called a "triage approach," placing resources and regulatory approaches in specific areas that were more likely to be successful, and ignoring the huge political and societal obstacles associated with other major initiatives.

    "There was a school of thought among the 'triage group' that sustaining wild salmon runs in the Columbia River and the Sacramento River would require removing the dams, and that simply was not going to happen in the view of these proponents," Lackey said. "If the dams are needed for generating power and providing water for irrigation and flood control, salmon are not going to be a priority, they say, so we'd be better off focusing our resources elsewhere, such as coastal streams."

    Within that triage group, though, were others who suggested the United States and southern British Columbia adopt a "Yellowstone approach" to managing wild salmon runs, Lackey pointed out. In those proposals, salmon would be akin to the buffalo at Yellowstone, with certain watersheds set aside for protection. Such an approach would require a change in the Endangered Species Act.

    The fourth group of policy suggestions involved a series of smaller actions, Lackey said.

    "The general feeling of these people is that we've been getting into this problem since 1850, and it's been death by a thousand cuts," Lackey said. "So to make things right, we need to make improvements by a thousand smaller measures - fixing a bit of habitat here, improving a dam there."

    The leaders of the Salmon 2100 Project - Lackey, Lach and Sally Duncan, a research associate with OSU's Department of Sociology - say they don't favor any single proposal or set of proposals. Their goal was to get the most creative thinking out of a wide range of people with different backgrounds.

    "We don't have a dog in this fight," Lach said. "The participants represent the range of policy perspectives and they definitely don't agree amongst themselves - except on the point that current recovery efforts are not likely to be successful."

    The American Fisheries Society will publish a book including all of the proposals this January. And in keeping with the spirit of the project, it will include no recommendations or consensus.

    The participants will be identified as individuals, not as being affiliated with agencies or groups.

    Lackey, Lach and Duncan initially conducted a careful analysis of the long-term future of wild salmon in the region and concluded that four "core policy drivers" will affect any attempt at creating new policies aimed at sustaining wild salmon runs. These four factors include priorities for commerce, increasing scarcity of natural resources, regional human population increases, and individual choices.

    They note that the drive for economic efficiency and low-cost production - which they call the rules of commerce - works against increasing the number of wild salmon. If the supply of wild salmon becomes too small or too expensive, "we'll buy them from Chile, Scotland, or British Columbia, which is where most salmon come from now," Lackey said.

    The key natural resource for wild salmon is water, and demands on it are increasing. Land use demands also are on the rise, degrading habitat. Both are affected by the third policy driver, which is population growth.

    "This region is historically under populated, as demographers like to say," Lach said. "It is 'fill-in' country, and solid estimates are that we should expect four to five times the people here by 2100 that we have now. None of the policy suggestions are taking that into account. None. To a person, [project participants] say if that model is true, what's the use?"

    The final deciding factor in creating new policies will be individual and collective choice, Duncan said. Saving wild salmon sounds noble, she points out. Changing behavior is more difficult.

    "If you live in a house, send your kids to school, drive a car, and even go down to a fast-food joint for French fries, in a real sense, you are damaging salmon habitat," Duncan said. "Do we want comparatively cheap electricity or wild salmon? Are we willing to pass legislation that will take our private property and turn it into salmon habitat?

    "Ultimately, it is possible that sustaining wild salmon may not be enough of a priority for people to choose it over their current lifestyles," she added. "It would be far less disruptive socially to decide simply that hatchery fish provide an acceptable alternative."

    Story By: 

    Robert T. Lackey, 541-7554-4607

    Forecast: Analog year could mean extreme weather events

    CORVALLIS - Climate forecasters predict the future by examining recent sea surface temperatures, regional climate patterns, and even Atlantic Ocean hurricanes - and this year these indicators show a close similarity to conditions prior to the winter of 1995-96.

    If such a pattern holds true, says George Taylor, this winter in Oregon could be a doozy.

    Taylor is a faculty member at Oregon State University who serves as the state climatologist. He said the 1995-96 fall and winter will long be remembered for a powerful wind storm in December, two ice storms, and the massive "100-year flood" in February, which closed schools, isolated communities, and caused millions of dollars of damage.

    "It was a wild year," Taylor said. "And because there is a strong correlation between conditions during the first several months of this year and early in 1995, it would appear the chances for an extreme event this winter are quite high."

    Every year Taylor makes a prediction for fall and winter weather based on a number of factors, culminating in selecting "analog years" that most closely resemble current conditions. He takes into account long-term wet and dry cycles (known as the multi-decadal phase), El Nino and La Nina episodes, sea level pressures, temperatures, wind speeds, solar cycles and even hurricanes, which have a surprisingly strong correlation to Northwest climate.

    "Based on a composite of analyses, we are usually able to identify four or five analog years that had similar conditions during the first several months of the year, which helps us predict what the weather may be like in the fall and winter," Taylor said. "The 1995-96 year was weighted twice as strong as any other year.

    "That doesn't mean the outcomes will be similar," he warned. "Let's just say things are leaning in the direction of extreme events and that an active year seems likely."

    Taylor said the trend this fall and winter appears to be warmer and wetter than normal, throughout the state:

  • Oregon Coast: Temperatures will be above normal October-December and January-March; precipitation will be near normal October-December and above-normal January-March.
  • Willamette Valley: Temperatures will be above normal October-December and January-March; precipitation will be slightly above-normal October-December and above-normal for January-March.
  • Southwest Interior: Temperatures will be above normal October-December and January-March; precipitation will be slightly above-normal October-December and above-normal for January-March.
  • Northeast Oregon: Temperatures will be above normal October-December and January-March; precipitation will be slightly above-normal October-December and above-normal for January-March.
  • Southeast Oregon: Temperatures will be above normal October-December and January-March; precipitation will be slightly above-normal October-December and above-normal for January-March.

    Other analog years for 2005-06, and their extreme events, include 1952-53 (flooding and wind storms); 1973-74 (flooding); and 1969-70 (ice storms).

    Last year Taylor predicted a wet, early fall despite a summer drought and was right on the mark. He also correctly predicted a wet spring. But, he added, "we experienced a very dry mid-winter last year, and that is something we never anticipated."

    Taylor said every year his most frequent request is to predict whether it will snow in the low elevations. Every year, he disappoints his followers.

    "Snow is just so hard to predict," he said, ruefully. "The only thing we can say is that there's a better chance of snow after Jan. 1."

    In his annual forecast, which is available online at http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/index.html, Taylor gives ample room to his "competitors." The Country Farmers Almanac, for example, predicts snow flurries as early as December and "true winter weather" in February with severe snowstorms. Harris Almanac offers a forecast that is generally cooler and slightly drier than Taylor predicts. And the Old Farmers Almanac predicts a comparatively warm and wet winter - somewhat in line with Taylor.

    "Now we just wait and see what happens," Taylor said.

  • Story By: 

    George Taylor, 541-737-5694

    OSU Extension publishes new book on Oregon's eastside forests

    CORVALLIS - The Oregon State University Extension Service has published a new book, "Ecology and Management of Eastern Oregon Forests: A Comprehensive Manual for Forest Managers."

    The forests of eastern Oregon are diverse, as well as complex and the objectives of forest managers and owners are many. In modern times, these forests are in need of management, explained Stephen Fitzgerald, OSU Extension specialist and co-author of this 208-page illustrated book.

    "Lack of timely management action, early harvesting practices and fire suppression policies over thousands of acres and many decades has significantly reduced the value of many eastern Oregon forests, and increased their risk to fire, insects and disease," said Fitzgerald.

    Eastern Oregon has many types of forests, ranging from ponderosa pine to lodgepole pine to mixtures of pines and firs. Each provides multiple values to Oregon including clean water, recreation, wildlife habitat and a source for lumber.

    Active management can restore forest potentials and many of these values, according to Fitzgerald and OSU Extension forester Paul Oester, two of the authors of the new "Ecology and Management" book, also known as Manual 12.

    Other authors include William Emmingham, an emeritus OSU Extension silviculturist; Greg Filip, former OSU Extension forest pathologist; and W. Daniel Edge, OSU Extension fisheries and wildlife specialist.

    "The book is really a 'how to' manual that is well illustrated with color figures, tables and photos," said Fitzgerald. "Plus it contains thinning guidelines that help landowners decide how much to thin their particular forest."

    With nine chapters, the book explains forest ecology, silviculture, and management of ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, and mixed conifer forests. Other chapters cover insects and disease, reforestation methods, managing for range values and managing for wildlife.

    "If you are interested in solving this puzzle of complexity and successfully managing your east-side forestland, this manual is for you," he said.

    To preview a portion of book or download an order form off the web, go to: http://eesc.orst.edu/agcomwebfile/edmat/Manual12.pdf. The book costs $25 plus $5 shipping and handling. Or call 1-800-561-6719 to order.



    Stephen Fitzgerald, 541-548-6088

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