04-19-06

Media Release

Events of Past Year Revealed Certainty of Climate Change

PORTLAND, Ore. – The year 2005 may be seen as the “tipping point” for the debate over global warming, one expert says – the time when a series of global events and solid studies came together to make a conclusive scientific case and motivate people from debate to action.

The scientific evidence for greenhouse warming and other major climatic changes is now overwhelming, said Jane Lubchenco, the Wayne and Gladys Valley Professor of Marine Biology at Oregon State University. Climate change is happening even faster than most scientists anticipated, and there is now a sense of urgency – a call to action – that didn’t previously exist.

Lubchenco will outline the recent dramatic events that have taken place in the past year on Friday, April 21, in a presentation to the City Club of Portland. The “Friday Forum” lecture is open to the public, begins at 12:15 p.m., and will be at the Governor Hotel, 614 S.W. 11th Ave., in Portland. General seating costs $5; more information can be obtained at www.pdxcityclub.org

“The dialogue is now shifting gears from climate science to climate action,” Lubchenco said. “There’s still a lot we need to learn about the science, but the events of the past year have ended much of the lingering debate and controversy. The most important question now is what can individuals, communities, states and nations do to reduce and prepare for climate change.”

Just recently, Lubchenco said, a series of peer reviewed studies have made several points clear. These include:

• There are demonstrated increases in both atmospheric and ocean temperatures that can be directly attributed to human activities, carbon emissions and the greenhouse effect.
• Global sea levels are rising.
• The intensity of hurricanes has increased, due to warmer tropical ocean waters.
• Snow and ice sheets are melting more rapidly.
• Dramatic changes are taking place in vegetation, species distribution and ranges.
• Changes are happening in precipitation patterns, leading to more droughts and floods.
• The acid content of the oceans is increasing.

The past year, Lubchenco said, has been significant in part because so many things came together at once – both natural disasters and scientific studies – that reveal climate change as a consistent pattern.

“It’s difficult to look at any one event, whether it’s a severe hurricane, a flood or a drought, and say definitively that it was caused by a changing climate,” Lubchenco said. “But when you have a whole series of events, you can analyze the patterns.”

Today’s models are now so sophisticated that they separate out the human-influenced changes from the natural changes in these patterns, Lubchenco said. A consistent finding from 2005 is that the anomalies are caused by human perturbation of the climate system. For example, rising ocean temperatures can only be explained by increases in heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warming the planet, she said.

And some of those changes will continue to play out for decades to come.

“What has become clear is that if society wants to avoid future disasters, it should do two things - prevent even greater disruption to the climate system and prepare for the climate changes already set in motion,” Lubchenco said. “There is urgency on both fronts, reducing emissions and preparing to adapt.”

A major three-year public awareness campaign was begun this month to help educate people on how they can help, supported by The Ad Council, Environmental Defense and the Robertson Foundation. Brochures are available on “The Low Carbon Diet” and how to “count carbs.” Details on that initiative can be found on the web at http://www.fightglobalwarming.com

Governments also have immense power to be part of the solution, Lubchenco said, and many states, including Oregon, have led the charge. As co-chair of the Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming, Lubchenco and other Oregon leaders drafted a wide range of possible actions the state could take to help address these issues – many of which have been adopted.

“Oregon has been a leader in its energy policies, emphasizing conservation, green buildings and renewable energy,” Lubchenco said. “Now it is positioned to adopt policies that will bring even greater health and economic benefit by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

The changes coming may have far reaching impacts, on everything from forestry to fisheries, sustainable agriculture, even roads or bridges designed to face more severe storms, flooding or rising sea levels. The nation’s insurance industry has been one of the early leaders in anticipating a very different future, Lubchenco said, because they may be paying the bills from the catastrophes of tomorrow.

“The bottom line is that the scientific evidence from 2005 and early 2006 is powerful and conclusive,” Lubchenco said. “If society wishes to avoid catastrophic disruption of our lives, the time for action is now. Individual citizens are powerful agents of change, but communities, businesses, the state and the federal government will need to do their part.”