OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY

environment and natural resources

Reducing pressure on predators, prey simultaneously is best for species’ recovery

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Reducing human pressure on exploited predators and prey at the same time is the best way to help their populations recover, a new study indicates.

The findings about synchronous recovery are important because historically about half the attempts at species restoration have amounted to a sequential, one-species-at-a-time tactic – usually the prey species first, then the predator.

This study suggests that a synchronous approach almost always produces a recovery that is more rapid and more direct – faster than predator-first recovery and less prone to volatile population fluctuations than prey-first recovery. Just as crucial, synchronous is also better for the humans who earn a living harvesting the two species.

Findings of the research were published today in Nature Ecology and Evolution.

“You might think the loss of income associated with reducing harvest on both species at the same time would be greater than reducing harvest on one species after another, but our work suggests that synchronous recovery is ultimately better for recovering the ecosystem, and better from an economic perspective as well,” said Mark Novak of the Oregon State University College of Science.

Because of overharvest, declines of multiple animal populations – including at least one species that consumes other harvested species – characterize many ecosystems, Novak notes.

Examples of paired population collapses wholly or partially attributable to trophy hunting, industrial fisheries or the fur trade are lions and wildebeest; Steller sea lions and Pacific herring; and mink and muskrat.

Novak, assistant professor of integrative biology, notes that in both terrestrial and marine resources management, population restoration and the setting of harvest quotas has long been a single-species endeavor.

Even in the more holistic ecosystem-based rebuilding of food webs – the interconnected chains of who eats whom – the dominant strategy has been to release pressure at the bottom, letting prey populations return to the point where they ought to sustain the top predators more readily, Novak said.

Collaborators at the National Marine Fisheries Center, including Shannon Hennessey, now a graduate student at OSU, led the study, which points out the limitations of both of these philosophies. It also highlights the room for improvement in policy tools that synchronous recovery management could fill.

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Steve Lundeberg, 541-737-4039

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Young Steller sea lion

Steller sea lions

Scientists: Warming temperatures could trigger starvation, extinctions in deep oceans by 2100

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Researchers from 20 of the world’s leading oceanographic research centers today warned that the world’s largest habitat – the deep ocean floor – may face starvation and sweeping ecological change by the year 2100.

Warming ocean temperatures, increased acidification and the spread of low-oxygen zones will drastically alter the biodiversity of the deep ocean floor from 200 to 6,000 meters below the surface. The impact of these ecosystems to society is just becoming appreciated, yet these environments and their role in the functioning of the planet may be altered by these sweeping impacts. 

Results of the study, which was supported by the Foundation Total and other organizations, were published this week in the journal Elementa.

“Biodiversity in many of these areas is defined by the meager amount of food reaching the seafloor and over the next 80-plus years – in certain parts of the world – that amount of food will be cut in half,” said Andrew Thurber, an Oregon State University marine ecologist and co-author on the study. “We likely will see a shift in dominance to smaller organisms. Some species will thrive, some will migrate to other areas, and many will die. 

“Parts of the world will likely have more jellyfish and squid, for example, and fewer fish and cold water corals.”

The study used the projections from 31 earth system models developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to predict how the temperature, amount of oxygen, acidity (pH) and food supply to the deep-sea floor will change by the year 2100. The authors found these models predict that deep ocean temperatures in the “abyssal” seafloor (3,000 to 6,000 meters deep) will increase as much as 0.5 to 1.0 degrees (Celsius) in the North Atlantic, Southern and Arctic oceans by 2100 compared to what they are now. 

Temperatures in the “bathyal” depths (200 to 3,000 meters deep) will increase even more – parts of this deep-sea floor are predicted to see an increase of nearly 4 degrees (C) in the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans.

“While four degrees doesn’t seem like much on land, that is a massive temperature change in these environments,” Thurber said. “It is the equivalent of having summer for the first time in thousands to millions of years.” 

The over-arching lack of food will be exacerbated by warming temperatures, Thurber pointed out.

“The increase in temperature will increase the metabolism of organisms that live at the ocean floor, meaning they will require more food at a time when less is available.” 

Most of the deep sea already experiences a severe lack of food, but it is about to become a famine, according to Andrew Sweetman, a researcher at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh and lead author on the study.

“Abyssal ocean environments, which are over 3,000 meters deep, are some of the most food-deprived regions on the planet,” Sweetman said. “These habitats currently rely on less carbon per meter-squared each year than is present in a single sugar cube. Large areas of the abyss will have this tiny amount of food halved and for a habitat that covers half the Earth, the impacts of this will be enormous.” 

The impacts on the deep ocean are unlikely to remain there, the researchers say. Warming ocean temperatures are expected to increase stratification in some areas yet increase upwelling in others. This can change the amount of nutrients and oxygen in the water that is brought back to the surface from the deep sea. This low-oxygen water can affect coastal communities, including commercial fishing industries, which harvest groundfish from the deep sea globally and especially in areas like the Pacific Coast of North America, Thurber said.

“A decade ago, we even saw low-oxygen water come shallow enough to kill vast numbers of Dungeness crabs,” Thurber pointed out. “The die-off was massive.” 

Areas most likely to be affected by the decline in food are the North and South Pacific, North and South Atlantic, and North and South Indian oceans.

“The North Atlantic in particular will be affected by warmer temperatures, acidification, a lack of food and lower oxygen,” Thurber said. “Water in the region is soaking up the carbon from the atmosphere and then sending it on its path around the globe, so it likely will be the first to feel the brunt of the changes.” 

Thurber, who is a faculty member in Oregon State’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and the OSU College of Science, has previously published on the “services” or benefits provided by the deep ocean environments. The deep sea is important to many of the processes affecting the Earth’s climate, including acting as a “sink” for greenhouse gases and helping to offset growing amounts of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere.

These habitats are not only threatened by warm temperatures and increasing carbon dioxide; they increasingly are being used by fishing and explored by mining industries for extraction of mineral resources. 

“If we look back in Earth’s history, we can see that small changes to the deep ocean caused massive shifts in biodiversity,” Thurber said. “These shifts were driven by those same impacts that our model predict are coming in the near future. We think of the deep ocean as incredibly stable and too vast to impact, but it doesn’t take much of a deviation to create a radically altered environment.

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Andrew Thurber, 541-737-4500, athurber@coas.oregonstate.edu; Andrew Sweetman, +44 (0) 131 451 3993, a.sweetman@hw.ac.uk

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Sea pig (Image Courtesy of Ocean Networks Canada)

SeaPig

Methane seep (Image by Andrew Thurber, OSU)

CRSeep

New hydronium-ion battery presents opportunity for more sustainable energy storage

CORVALLIS, Ore. – A new type of battery developed by scientists at Oregon State University shows promise for sustainable, high-power energy storage.

It’s the world’s first battery to use only hydronium ions as the charge carrier.

The new battery provides an additional option for researchers, particularly in the area of stationary storage.

Stationary storage refers to batteries in a permanent location that store grid power – including power generated from alternative energy sources such as wind turbines or solar cells – for use on a standby or emergency basis.

Hydronium, also known as H3O+, is a positively charged ion produced when a proton is added to a water molecule. Researchers in the OSU College of Science have demonstrated that hydronium ions can be reversibly stored in an electrode material consisting of perylenetetracarboxylic dianhydridem, or PTCDA.

This material is an organic, crystalline, molecular solid. The battery, created in the Department of Chemistry at Oregon State, uses dilute sulfuric acid as the electrolyte.

Graduate student Xingfeng Wang was the first author on the study, which has been published in the journal Angewandte Chemie International Edition, a publication of the German Chemical Society.

“This may provide a paradigm-shifting opportunity for more sustainable batteries,” said Xiulei Ji, assistant professor of chemistry at OSU and the corresponding author on the research. “It doesn’t use lithium or sodium or potassium to carry the charge, and just uses acid as the electrolyte. There’s a huge natural abundance of acid so it’s highly renewable and sustainable.”

Ji points out that until now, cations – ions with a positive charge – that have been used in batteries have been alkali metal, alkaline earth metals or aluminum.

“No nonmetal cations were being considered seriously for batteries,” he said.

The study observed a big dilation of the PTCDA lattice structure during intercalation – the process of its receiving ions between the layers of its structure. That meant the electrode was being charged, and the PTCDA structure expanded, by hydronium ions, rather than extremely tiny protons, which are already used in some batteries.

“Organic solids are not typically contemplated as crystalline electrode materials, but many are very crystalline, arranged in a very ordered structure,” Ji said. “This PTCDA material has a lot of internal space between its molecule constituents so it provides an opportunity for storing big ions and good capacity.”

The hydronium ions also migrate through the electrode structure with comparatively low “friction,” which translates to high power.

“It’s not going to power electric cars,” Ji said. “But it does provide an opportunity for battery researchers to go in a new direction as they look for new alternatives for energy storage, particularly for stationary grid storage.”

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hydronium-ion battery

Simulated PTCDA unit cell

Marine ecologist offers suggestions for achieving a strong, lasting ‘blue economy’

BOSTON – Incentive-based solutions offer significant hope for addressing the myriad environmental challenges facing the world’s oceans – that’s the central message a leading marine ecologist delivered today in during a presentation at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. 

Jane Lubchenco, a distinguished professor in the Oregon State University College of Science, shared lessons from around the world about ways “to use the ocean without using it up” as nations look to the ocean for new economic opportunities, food security or poverty alleviation.

Elizabeth Cerny-Chipman, a former postdoctoral scholar under Lubchenco who’s now a Knauss Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, co-authored the presentation, titled “Getting Incentives Right for Sustained Blue Growth: Science and Opportunities.”

In her presentation, Lubchenco pointed out that achieving the long-term potential of blue growth will require aligning short- and long-term economic incentives to achieve a diverse mix of benefits. Blue growth refers to long-term strategies for supporting sustainable growth in the marine and maritime sectors as a whole.

“If we harness human ingenuity and recognize that a healthy ocean is essential for long-term prosperity, we can tackle the enormous threats facing the ocean,” Lubchenco says, “and we can make a transition from vicious cycles to virtuous cycles.”

Lubchenco and her collaborators note that the world’s oceans are the main source of protein production for 3 billion people; are directly or indirectly responsible for the employment of more than 200 million people; and contribute $270 billion to the planet’s gross domestic product.

“The right incentives can drive behavior that aligns with both desired environmental outcomes and desirable social outcomes,” Lubchenco says.

The first step in building increased support for truly sustainable blue growth, she says, is highlighting its potential. That means working with decision-makers to promote win-win solutions with clear short-term environmental and economic benefits. Governments, industry and communities all have important roles to play, Lubchenco notes.

“Another key step is transforming the social norms that drive the behavior of the different actors, particularly in industry,” Lubchenco says. “Finally, it will be critical to take a cross-sector approach.

“Some nations, like the Seychelles, Belize and South Africa, are doing integrated, smart planning to deconflict use by different sectors while also growing their economies in ways that value the health of the ocean, which is essential to jobs and food security. They are figuring out how to be smarter about ocean uses, not just to use the ocean more intensively.”

Prior to her presentation, Lubchenco gave a related press briefing on how to create the right incentives for sustainable uses of the ocean.

In November 2016, Lubchenco, Cerny-Chipman, OSU graduate student Jessica Reimer and Simon Levin, the distinguished university professor in ecology and evolutionary biology at Princeton University, co-authored a paper on a related topic for the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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Catch share

"Catch share" fisheries program

2015-16 weather event took toll on California beaches; not so much for Oregon, Washington

CORVALLIS, Ore. – The 2015-16 El Niño was one of the strongest climate events in recent history with extraordinary winter wave energy, a new study shows, though its impact on beaches was greater in California than in Oregon and Washington.

The reason, researchers say, is that the Pacific Northwest had experienced comparatively mild wave conditions in the years prior to the onset of the El Niño, while California was experiencing a severe drought and “sediment starvation.”

Results of the study are being published this week in Nature Communications.

“Rivers still supply the primary source of sand to California beaches, despite long-term reductions due to extensive dam construction,” said Patrick Barnard, a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and lead author on the study. “But as California was in the midst of a major drought, the resulting lower river flows equated to even less sand being carried to the coast to help sustain beaches.

“Therefore, many of the beaches in California were in a depleted state prior to the El Niño winters, and thereby were subjected to extreme and unprecedented landward erosion due to the highly energetic winter storm season of 2015-16.”

The West Coast, on average, experienced a “shoreline retreat” – or degree of beach erosion – that was 76 percent above normal and 27 percent higher than any other winter on record, eclipsing the El Niño events of 2009-10 and 1997-98. Coastal erosion was greatest in California, where 11 of the 18 beaches surveyed experienced historical levels of erosion.

Peter Ruggiero, an Oregon State University coastal hazards expert and co-author on the study, said Oregon and Washington were not affected to the same extent.

“You would have thought that there would be massive damage associated with erosion in Oregon and Washington with the strength of this El Niño,” said Ruggiero, a professor in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. “But the previous three years had mild winters and therefore the sand buildup was much higher than in California. It helped the Northwest offset the potential erosion from the El Niño.”

Oregon and Washington also have broader beaches than in California, Ruggiero pointed out, which also eases the erosion of sand dunes and impacts to development.

The 2015-16 El Niño, in some ways, was stronger than the 1982-83 event, which caused an estimated $11.5 billion in damages, the researchers say in the study. Only a portion of the damage was directly related to coastal erosion, with damage to houses and roads, they note. Most of the impact was from related storms, flooding and other damage that occurred inland.

The Nature Communications study is important, the authors say, because it is one of the first attempts to document the oceanographic “forcing” directly related to beach impacts created by El Niño. The study documents the amount of power created by winter storm waves, using height and “period” – or the length of time between waves. It is the level of forcing, along with relative beach health, that dictates the amount of erosion that occurs and the associated impacts from that erosion.

“During an El Niño, the nearshore experiences higher water levels because of the storms and the fact that the water is warmer and expands,” Ruggiero said. “In Oregon, the water was about 15-17 centimeters (roughly 6-7 inches) higher than average, which led to higher storm tides.”

Although Northwest beaches were buffered from catastrophic damage, Ruggiero said, they did experience significant retreat. And it may take a while for the beaches to rebuild.

“We’re not completely recovered yet, and it may take years for some beaches to build back up,” he said. “After the 1997-98 El Niño, it took some beaches a decade to recover.”

Ruggiero, his students and colleagues have been monitoring Northwest beaches since 1997, and in 2015, they received a National Science Foundation rapid response grant to study the impact of El Niño on beaches. Ruggiero also receives support from the Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems (NANOOS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for additional monitoring.

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Peter Ruggiero, 541-737-1239, pruggier@coas.oregonstate.edu; Patrick Barnard, 831-460-7556, pbarnard@usgs.gov

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South Beach, Oregon
Oregon's South Beach

 

(Left: Crescent Beach in Callifornia. Photos by Nick Cohn, Oregon State University. https://flic.kr/p/RwDLsb)

Leading marine researcher says scientists must speak, reach out and integrate into society

CORVALLIS, Ore. – A leading global marine ecologist today called on scientists to increasingly engage the public by demonstrating the value of their research.

Jane Lubchenco, a distinguished university professor in the Oregon State University College of Science and advisor in marine studies for the university, urged this action during a time in which she said scientific facts are being called into question.

She made the points in a commentary titled “Environmental Science in a Post-Truth World” published today in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, the journal of the Ecological Society of America.

“Access to information, and critical thinking, are essential for an informed democracy,” Lubchenco says. “A post-truth world, a U.S. cabinet full of climate deniers, suppression of science and scientists all threaten – seriously threaten – our democracy. Resistance is appropriate, but now, more than ever, scientists also need to engage meaningfully with society to address intertwined environmental and societal problems.”

Lubchenco, an internationally recognized expert on marine ecology, environmental science and climate change, is urging researchers to act boldly and creatively to counteract what she called a “pervasive” dismissal of facts exemplified by President Trump’s labeling of climate change as a hoax.

She outlines three parallel approaches for scientists to “rise to the occasion, find solutions and help create a better world”:

1)    Demonstrate the merits of science by making it accessible, which includes eschewing jargon in favor of plain language and acting in such a way that shows scientists are warm, caring human beings;

2)    Provide hope by highlighting successes, creating even more successes, and figuring out how to bring them to a meaningful scale;

3)    Modify academic reward structures to incentivize public engagement as a core responsibility.

Lubchenco, a former administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2009-13) and the first U.S. Science Envoy for the Ocean (2014-16), makes those points and others in her invited editorial.

She says facts are losing ground to appeals to emotion and personal belief in the shaping of public opinion. Lubchenco sounds a clarion call for the scientific community to do everything in its power to stand up for science and also to make research findings understandable, credible, relevant and accessible.

That includes, Lubchenco says, “getting off our lofty perches and being more integrated into society.”

“Fortunately, many politicians and other citizens still believe that decisions based on science are better decisions than those not based on science,” says Lubchenco, past president of the Ecological Society of America, the nation’s largest professional society of ecologists.

The challenges of the post-truth era demand that scientists serve in a way that responds to needs through interactions with citizens based on humility, transparency and respect, she says.

“Now’s the time for all scientists to take a quantum leap into greater relevance by helping people to understand how important our work really is,” Lubchenco says. “For example, the world has finally begun to make tangible progress in addressing climate change. We can’t let a post-truth mentality derail that or the other things we do to improve people’s lives.”

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Jane Lubchenco 1

Jane Lubchenco

Third Oregon climate assessment report shows state still warming, despite frigid winter

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Don’t let this winter fool you. Oregon’s climate continues to warm; there are impacts on the state’s physical, biological and human-managed systems; and more studies are pointing to greenhouse gas emissions as the reason for these climate trends and events.

That is the conclusion of the third Oregon Climate Assessment Report, a synthesis of peer-reviewed scientific studies over the past three years. The legislatively mandated report was produced by the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University and is being presented this month to key Oregon political leaders.

“Oregonians shouldn’t be swayed by this winter, which is colder than any of the ones we’ve had since 1990,” noted Philip Mote, director of the OSU center and a co-author on the report. “Overall, temperatures are still getting warmer – in Oregon, throughout the United States, and globally – and the impacts are very real.

“For Oregonians, it means warmer temperatures, lower snowpack and less water during the summer. And more and more studies are confirming greenhouse gas emissions as the cause.”

Kathie Dello, associate director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, points out that although December of 2016 was the 11th coldest December on record in Oregon in 122 years of monitoring, the year was still among the top 10 warmest years on record for the state.

The climate assessment report, led by Meghan Dalton, a research assistant with the institute in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at OSU, looked at more than 300 studies published from 2013-16 by researchers at universities, state and federal agencies, and elsewhere. Dalton led a team of researchers who synthesized the literature and developed the report.

“The year 2015 has been described as foreshadowing what we can expect as normal conditions by the mid-21st century,” Dalton said. “There were warmer temperatures that led to drought, low snowpack, and greater wildfire risk, with less water in the summer. That appears to be our future.”

Snowpack in the past three years has varied greatly, according to Dello.

“In 2015, we basically had no snow to speak of,” Dello said. “In 2016, we had a lot of snow, but most of it got wiped out by warm temperatures in late winter and early spring. So far this year, we have had a lot of snow, but warmer temperatures are moving in, and we still have a lot of winter left. We’re cautiously optimistic. Large year-to-year changes like that are still expected, even in a warming climate.”

The report notes that a warming climate and earlier spring may have a few beneficial results. Farmers, for example, may benefit from a longer growing season, though water could be an issue for some crops.

The report analyzes potential impacts of climate change for Oregon’s many regions. Among the findings:

  • The Oregon Coast: Sea level rise will increase the risk of erosion and flooding and higher estuary temperatures will challenge migrating salmon and steelhead. One study estimated that warming of Yaquina Bay by 1.3 to 2.9 degrees (F) would result in 40 additional days of temperatures not meeting the criteria for protecting salmonids.
  • The Willamette Valley: Heat waves are expected to become longer, more common and more intense; operating rules for reservoirs may have to change to balance flood risk and summer water supply; air quality will decline, and wildfire risk will increase. A study of fire activity concluded that there will be a three-fold to nine-fold increase in the amount of area burned in the basin by the year 2100.
  • The Cascade Mountains: More precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, with elevations between 3,000 feet and 6,000 feet being the most sensitive. In addition to potential impacts on ski resorts, there likely will be a change in when water is available. Cascades forests will probably be subject to more wildfire, drought, insect damage and disease, and some studies suggest that woodlands will shift from predominantly conifer to mixed conifer forests. The risk of increased incidence of respiratory illness from wildfire smoke is a top public health risk in Jackson County.
  • Eastern Oregon: Water will be a huge issue in the east with snowpack decline, and the same forest issues face the Blue Mountains as the Cascades. Increased wildfire risk may create more days of heavy smoke affecting public health, and fires will threaten the forests. Salmon in the John Day basin and other river systems will be challenged with warmer temperatures, and rangeland and sagebrush habitat is threatened by non-native weeds and grasses.

“A lot of the studies we cited focus on the physical aspects of warming, from snowpack to wildfire, but there are a lot of people who will be affected,” Dello said. “We can’t forget that Oregonians, their families, their jobs and their resources are at risk. There is still time to do something, but time is running short.”

A copy of the report is available at http://occri.net/

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Kathie Dello, 541-737-8927, kdello@coas.oregonstate.edu; Phil Mote, 541-913-2274, pmote@coas.oregonstate.edu

Off-grid power in remote areas will require special business model to succeed

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Low-cost, off-grid solar energy could provide significant economic benefit to people living in some remote areas, but a new study suggests they generally lack the access to financial resources, commercial institutions and markets needed to bring solar electricity to their communities.

Around the world, more than 1.2 billion people lack access to basic electricity service. The majority of those people are living in developing nations, in rural or isolated areas with high rates of poverty. Steep costs and remote terrain often make it impractical or even impossible to extend the electric grid. 

Developing a successful business model that could deliver off-grid power to this market will require addressing challenges unique to the population, an Oregon State University researcher concluded in a study published recently in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

“Surviving and growing in this market is very different than in a typical commercial enterprise,” said Inara Scott, an assistant professor in the College of Business. “There are a lot of people working on off-grid solar products on the small scale, but the problem becomes how can they scale the programs up and make them profitable?” 

When rural, isolated communities do gain access to solar power, the impact on residents can be profound, Scott said. Children are more likely to go to and complete schooling, because they have light to study by. Kerosene lamps, which create a lot of indoor air pollution, are no longer needed, improving people’s health. And work hours are increased, giving people more time to earn money or build home-based businesses.

“Providing electricity starts an incredible cycle of improvement for communities without reliance on charities or government aid,” she said. “There are also environmental benefits to encouraging sustainable development using renewable resources.” 

The market for small solar lighting and charging units has grown dramatically in the last few years, and solar home systems offer cleaner, safer and cheaper lighting over time than kerosene, the primary alternative for lighting in developing nations. But even a small cost can be out of reach for people whose annual incomes are often less than $3,000 per year, Scott said.

She examined successful business models for serving these populations, known as “base of the pyramid” markets, and successful renewable energy enterprises, looking for intersections that might aid businesses looking to market solar energy to base-of-pyramid markets. 

Scott found that a successful enterprise would include four primary components, and she developed a framework around them. Her recommendations:

  • Community interaction: Work with local communities to understand local norms, culture, social issues and economic systems that might influence the effort.
  • Partnerships: Join forces with other companies, government organizations, non-profit groups or non-governmental organizations to share ideas and resources and gain support.
  • Local capacity building: People in the community may lack product knowledge and have little experience with technology, while the community may not have typical distribution channels. Consider the potential customers as both producers and consumers, training local entrepreneurs as distributors, marketers and equipment installation/repair technicians.
  • Barriers unique to the off-grid market: Address issues such as financing of upfront costs, which may be prohibitive to consumers; educate people on the products and their benefits; build trust in quality and reliability; and develop multiple strong distribution networks.

“You’re not going to be successful just trying to sell a product,” she said. “This is really a social enterprise, with the goal of trying to bring people out of poverty while also emphasizing sustainable development.” 

There are a lot of socially-minded enterprises with good intentions that would like to work in these rural, remote and high-poverty areas, Scott noted. Her framework could serve as a checklist of sorts for organizations looking to put their ideas into action, she said.

“It’s a way to pause for a minute and ask yourself if you have all the right pieces in place to be successful,” she said.

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Inara Scott, 541-737-4102, Inara.Scott@oregonstate.edu

New study: Weakening of North Atlantic current can be prevented by reducing carbon emissions

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Continued melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet could have a significant impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a system of surface and deep ocean currents – including the Gulf Stream – in the Atlantic Ocean that keeps upper North America and Europe temperate.

A new international study incorporating a comprehensive assessment of Greenland Ice Sheet melting suggests the freshwater influx could weaken the AMOC over the next three centuries, though the impact could be offset if human-caused carbon emissions decline and global temperatures stabilize.

However, if carbon emissions continue unabated, there is a 44 percent likelihood of a collapse of the system by the year 2300, the researchers say.

The findings are being published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“Previous studies and assessment reports, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have not considered the impacts on the AMOC from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, or they have looked at it simplistically,” said Andreas Schmittner, an Oregon State University climate scientist and co-author on the study.

“Our study, using eight state-of-the-science global climate models, incorporates a realistic assessment of the ice sheet melting and shows a definite weakening of the AMOC system, but one that can be partially mitigated by a decline in carbon emissions.”

The study also suggests that the freshwater influx from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will have less of an impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation than will overall global warming, rising sea surface temperatures, and intensification of the water cycle leading to more precipitation and evaporation.

“The good news is that we can still do something to lessen the impact of AMOC weakening and prevent an unlikely, but still possible collapse of the system,” said lead author Pepijn Bakker, a former post-doctoral researcher at Oregon State University now with the MARUM Center for Marine Environmental Studies at the University of Bremen in Germany.

“Our models predict that the ice sheet may not melt as rapidly as another recent study has suggested, but everything comes down to what will we in the United States, and people in other countries, do to lessen our carbon emissions.”

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation brings warm waters up from the tropics and transports cooler water to the south. A weakening of the system could mean that the North Atlantic would not warm as rapidly or thoroughly as it does now, affecting regional climate in North America and northern Europe.

The AMOC also is important for preserving ocean ecosystems, affecting nutrient transport.

“A weakening of the AMOC system would probably lead to more stratification of ocean waters and less biological productivity,” Schmittner said. “It may create more sea ice in the North Atlantic, which could be beneficial in some ways. At the same time, however, it would likely reduce the transport of cooler water to the south and shift rainfall patterns near the equator.”

The study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and several other agencies.

 

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Andreas Schmittner, 541-737-9952, aschmittner@coas.oregonstate.edu;

Pepijn Bakker, 004942121865435, pbakker@marum.de

Study finds less fragmentation in muzzleloading and black powder cartridge rifles

CORVALLIS, Ore. – A new study found that traditional bullets for muzzleloading rifles and black powder rifle cartridges fragment less upon impact and may leave far fewer lead fragments in game than a modern high-velocity rifle bullet.

The findings suggest that hunters using those styles of guns may have a reduced risk of secondary lead poisoning from consuming game meat, and that there may be a reduced risk to scavenging animals as well, compared to ammunition for modern rifles that also contain lead. 

Results of the study, by researchers in the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife at Oregon State University, have been published in the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management.

Bullet fragmentation has been well-described in many modern, high-velocity rifles, but not for black-powder cartridge rifles or muzzleloading firearms, said Clinton Epps, a wildlife ecologist at Oregon State and co-author on the study. 

“There is a lot more complexity to the lead versus non-lead ammunition discussion than many people realize and the black powder/muzzleloader niche of hunters needs to be included in the conversation,” Epps said.

To study the fragmentation, the researchers evaluated a traditional .54 caliber round ball and a modern-designed .54 caliber conical bullet for muzzleloaders and two types of .45-70 caliber black powder rifle cartridges, and compared them with a modern, lead-core high-velocity bullet (Remington Core-Lokt) for a .30-06. 

They found that the modern .30-06 bullets retained a mean 57.5 percent of their original mass, with the remaining 42.5 percent fragmenting. Mean mass retention for muzzleloader and black powder cartridge bullets ranged from 87.8 percent to 99.7 percent.

“We tested penetration and fragmentation for each bullet type in both water and ballistics gel,” said Dana Sanchez, an OSU wildlife Extension specialist and lead author on the article. “Obviously, these kinds of artificial tests cannot replicate conditions in the field, but the striking differences in fragmentation suggests follow-up tests on game animals harvested in actual hunting situations may be warranted.” 

Muzzleloaders use black powder, typically made from charcoal, potassium nitrate and sulfur, and loaded from the muzzle using loose components rather than self-contained cartridges. Traditional hunting bullets for muzzleloaders are round balls made of pure lead and wrapped in a cloth patch to engage the rifling. Because of their low velocity and low potential for expansion, most states require muzzleloaders to have larger (greater than .45) calibers than modern high-velocity rifles.

“The speed of a bullet is a key factor in fragmentation, although there are other variables,” said Epps, who is a rifle builder, ballistics specialist and a hunter. “Black powder cartridges and round balls don’t go as fast, so they have to use a bigger bullet, which tends not to break apart as much.” 

Muzzleloader hunting is popular in many states, especially in the Midwest and the South, where special seasons allow hunters to use this method in addition to traditional rifle and archery hunts. Oregon has special muzzleloader tags for deer, elk and pronghorn antelope. Hunting with muzzleloaders and black powder rifles remains a comparatively small niche among hunters and the researchers emphasize that their study was solely intended to provide information on fragmentation that had been missing.

Oregon allows use of both lead and non-lead ammunition in big game hunting. And while non-lead ammunition choices for modern firearms are increasingly more available, Epps said, “non-lead options for muzzleloaders and other older-style firearms are still limited and may not function well in all rifles.” 

David Taylor, a graduate student in OSU’s Department of Integrative Biology, also was an author on the study and conducted the field work as part of an undergraduate project funded in part by the Undergraduate Research, Innovation, Scholarship and Creativity program at Oregon State.

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Clint Epps, 541-737-2478, Clinton.epps@oregonstate.edu; Dana Sanchez, 541-737-6003, dana.sanchez@oregonstate.edu