Phil Mote directs the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (Photo: Lynn Ketchum)

It’s important to ask the right questions about data used to reach a conclusion. Are there gaps, either geographically or through time? Were robust statistical methods used to determine if a specific event was indeed unusual? Peer-reviewed research has shown that short periods of cooling can easily be embedded in longer-term warming trends; it’s simply a statistical fact in a time series with a positive trend and a variable system.

Recent cool weather notwithstanding, Oregon has undergone a substantial warming trend over the last 50 to 60 years. What are now considered exceptionally cool seasons were normal 75 to 100 years ago, and seasons now considered normal were exceptionally warm in the same period. If one arbitrarily selects the climatically insignificant period of 5 to 10 years, one can incorrectly conclude that there is no evidence of warming. But further research also shows reasons for the slight decline in global (and Oregon’s) temperatures: A combination of La Niña (when eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are 3 degrees to 5 degrees Celsius cooler than normal) and solar minimum (a low point in solar activity) temporarily overcame the gradually increasing effects of greenhouse gases.

Globally, 2011 was the warmest La Niña year ever. Research clearly points to a resumption of the warming as the recent spate of La Niñas wanes and as the solar cycle moves toward maximum. In short, rigorous research tells us so much more than the comparison of averages over arbitrary lengths of time.

The larger point that concerns me is how easily many people dismiss rigorous research in preference for subjective observation. Both are valid ways of adding to the sum of human knowledge, but sometimes the results of research can be counterintuitive and can even contradict what we see with our own eyes.

Take, for example, the patient whose doctor tells him he has a treatable form of cancer. If he feels fine, should he rely only on his subjective feelings? Would he be wise to conclude that his doctor is in “the cancer camp” and wait for clear physical evidence before doing anything?

Or what about the roofer who tells a homeowner that her roof is badly worn and could start leaking in the next storm. Would she be wise to dismiss him as part of the “leaky-roof camp” and ignore him until she actually sees the water trickling through her dining room ceiling?

Why do some of us so flippantly dismiss scientists studying the health of our only planet? Why argue against taking prudent steps now?

Some people may wish that global warming is nonsense. So do I. But I have to accept the evidence provided by thousands of honest, hard-working scientists, meticulously documented during the past 120 years, that says otherwise.

— Phil Mote is the director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

Precipitation for January 2011 over the continental United States shows up in this image based on data from the PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University. (Map: Alex Wiggins)

Alex Wiggins would like to bring that kind of visual power to climate data, long-term records of temperature, precipitation, wind speed and the other features of weather systems. The native of Gresham, Oregon, is a master’s student in computer science at Oregon State University and has been working with the Oregon Climate Service and Microsoft Research to create a new generation of visual tools for understanding climate data.

The goal is to assist the state climate service in meeting requests for information. People will be able to use nothing more than their own Web browsers to place climate data on top of Microsoft’s Bing maps and visualize differences in precipitation, temperature and other climate factors.

“Say you want to look at where there were lows for the month or highs for the month,” says Wiggins. “You can put as many layers on the map as you want. You can play through it and see how it changes over the years.” Users can compare one year against another or against long-term trends.

While maps showing climate data and the results of modeling studies have been available for years, Wiggin’s visualization tools will allow users to ask questions and to create maps that show information in a clearly understandable format.

Alex Wiggins has created new data visualization tools for the Oregon Climate Service (Photo: Nick Houtman)

Microsoft Research and OSU have a history of collaboration, which reached a milestone in December when Mark Abbott, dean of the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences (CEAOS) received a top national award from the company for his contributions to data-intensive computing.

Yan Xu, senior research program manager at Microsoft Research, says the mapping project addresses a gap “between how scientific research is done and how technology is developed. This project really engages these two communities. That’s the value I see in this kind of collaboration. Science scenarios challenge technology, and technology advances how scientists do science.”

The Oregon Climate Service (OCS) makes climate data available from a variety of sources including the PRISM Climate Group at OSU, the Western Regional Climate Center, the Natural Resources Conservation Service and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network.

April 2011 precipitation data displayed through World Wide Telescope software from Microsoft Research. (Image: Alex Wiggins)

“There’s no limit when you have a system like this. The possibilities are endless,” says Kathie Dello, deputy director of the OCS. Wiggins is working with Dello; Philip Mote, OCS director; and with Mike Bailey, professor in the School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. Mote and Dello are also affiliated with the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute.

Wiggins expects to complete his project next summer and enter a Ph.D. program in CEOAS to focus on signal processing from ocean observing systems.