Big - Direct Costs of war

• The Bush Administration predicted $50 billion as the cost of deposing Saddam Hussein. Iraq, Afghanistan, and other anti-terrorism expenses since 9/11/2001 have reached over $1 tillion. If you spent $1 million per day, it would take 2,939 years and 9 months to spend a trillion dollars. The "real" cost may be on the order of $5 trillion according to Nobel Prize economist, Joseph Stiglitz. Click for the National Priorities Porject talley of the Iraq War's costs.
• Below are figures showing some of the human costs of the "war against terrorism"(b).

US Military Iraq and Afghanistan Deaths by Month

The table below gives the count of total casualties.

Putting a value on the human lives lost is difficult. To the individual and family, the value of life is incalculatable. Yet many federal agencies do risk analysis using estimates for the value of a human life. For comparative purposes, we employ one of those values here. The results show that the costs in lost lives is greater than the direct costs of war. This is largely in the loss of civilian lives.

Force	Estimated Deaths (through 10/1/09) (a)
US Iraq	4,349
US Afghanistan	869
Coalition Iraq	179 UK 139 other nations
Coalition Afghanistan	220 UK 131 Canada 226 other nations
Contractors Iraq	462
Journalists	130
Iraqi Military	5,550 (c, e)
Iraqi Civilians	200,000 (d, e, f)
Current War Cost in Human Lives(b)	$1.5 trillion
US 1st Gulf War	148
US in Vietnam	153,363

(a) Source: Daily coverage by The Oregonian, NPR, and BBC. See other counters. Some casualties may be underestimated.
(b) The human costs of lost lives are inestimable, but a basis for estimating the financial costs is available. Assumptions: In 2008, the Environmental Protection Agency uses a stardard value of $6.9 million for each statistical life saved by proposed regulations. A second assumption is that all human lives are equally valuable, irrespective of culture, race, age, sex, national origin, or political affiliation. You can do the math and see the additional billions in costs.
(c) Based on NRP report by Tom Gjelton, April 30, 2003. General Brooks' reported 2,000 as the estimated body count for the 3rd Infantry Task Force tour through southwestern Baghdad, April 5, 2003 (NPR). Iraqi Major Salah Abdullah Mahdi al Jabouri reported "one-third of his 4,000 brigade" killed (Gazette-Times April 19, 2003:A6).
(d) Also includes prison deaths. For latest estimate from Iraqi Body Count. See also Niko Price, AP writer "Iraq Toll," Gazette-Times and Oregonian, 06/11/2003:A1; Daniel Cooney and Omar Sinan, AP survey of morgues, Gazette-Times 5/24/2004:A1. They report 4,279 deaths through April 30, 2004 in Bagdhad's 5.6 million population.
(e)The Lancet, October 29, 2004 published a study estimating the deaths to Iraqi military and civilians at more than 100,000. The NewScientist summarizing the Lancet report says, "The most common cause of death is as a direct result of violence, mostly caused by coalition air strikes, reveals the study of almost 1000 households scattered across Iraq. And the risk of violent death just after the invasion was 58 times greater than before the war. The overall risk of death was 1.5 times more after the invasion than before. "The figure of 100,000 – estimated by extrapolating the surveyed households’ death toll to the whole population - is based on "conservative assumptions", notes Les Roberts at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, US, who led the study. "That estimate excludes Falluja, a hotspot for violence. If the data from this town is included, the study points to about 200,000 excess deaths since the outbreak of war."
(f) See United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Human Rights Report Troop levels in Iraq current and projected through July 2010 (NPR 7/2/09).

Bigger - Recovering after a war

• Rebuilding costs range from $100-600 billion (Corvallis Gazette-Times 8/12/2003:A1). The Bush administration asked Congress for $87 billion for FY04, which makes Iraq about one seventh of the 2004 US budget deficit. What is the cause of the other six-sevenths?
• The World Bank estimated $56 billion is needed over the next 4 years. The US has pledged $20 billion and the rest of the world $13 in loans and grants. Yet to be determined is whether $125 billion in debt from the previous Iraqi government will be forgiven or not.
• Center for Strategic and Interntional Studies (Oregonian 4/4/03:B7) cost estimates for rebuilding after the war range from $25-400. The Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe cost $120 billion in current dollars. Iraqi oil revenues are slated to pay a large share, but 72 percent of oil revenues is committed to food, medicine, and humanitarian aid.
• Bathsheba Crocker of the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project (Fresh Air 4/9/2003) cautions about use of oil revenues. She says
  • Iraq earns $16 billion per year.
  • 70% of that goes to the UN Oil for Food Program.
  • reparations for the Gulf War are also paid out of oil revenues.
  • Iraq has bilateral debt to be paid.
  • Crocker estimates 3% of the oil revenues is left for other needs.
  Crocker affirms the $20-25 billion first year reconstruction costs. The total cost is estimated at $100 billion. In addition, to bring the Iraq oil industry to full capacity would cost $10 billion. The Bush administration requested $2.5 billion in the Iraq war budget request.
• The Council of Foreign Relations estimates $20 billion per year for rebuilding and restructuring (Oregonian 3/12/2003:A4).
• $25 billion is $1000 per person living in Iraq.

Biggest - Indirect costs

• $??? trillions in damage to Middle East, world, and US economies by diverting resources to war. More trillions in lost economic opportunity.
• American presitge is decreasing is most places around the world.
  • Jimmy Carter says (NPR, 2/25/2003), "Anti-American sentiment is at the highest point that I have ever witnessed in my life."
  • The 2006 US terrorist assessment says US citizens are more subject to terrorism
  • Loss of past friends, polarizing our support in the world.
• Our actions end up benefitting those were are trying to fight by increasing oil prices, weakened dollar, and limited resources to apply to health, education, and social issues worldwide.
• Inability to respond to possibly more important global crises such as Georgia, the Phillipines, Rwanda.
• Loss of the Moral High Ground
  • Europeans question US intentions
  • "World's good will toward the US evaporated," Oregonian 2/20/2003:A4.
  • Pretending invincibility when we should be collaborating and showing leadership.
• We bring negative consequences to neighbors and friends.
  • Potential for strike on Israel increases.
  • Protests and rioting are taking a toll on property and policing costs worldwide.
  • Brings the prospect for wider war in the Middle East.
• Loss of historic sites and places of cultural and religious significance.

Potential Better Expenditures?

• increasing international aid to reduce the number of people living on less than $2 per day.
• improving education, particularly for women.
• solving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
• dealing with the tragic consequences of the HIV-AIDS epidemic.
• improving the quality of heatlh care for children.
• fixing deteriorating infrastructure.

Who Pays?

• Future generations
• The poor
• Lost opportunities to improve the human contition.

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