What are the costs of war?

Big - Direct Costs of war

Putting a value on the human lives lost is difficult. To the individual and family, the value of life is incalculatable. Yet many federal agencies do risk analysis using estimates for the value of a human life. For comparative purposes, we employ one of those values here. The results show that the costs in lost lives is greater than the direct costs of war. This is largely in the loss of Iraqi lives.

Force Estimated Deaths
(through 5/1/09) (a)
US4,307
Coalition176 British
over 400 deaths to nationals of other countries
US Contractors1,181
United Nations22
Journalists130
Iraqi Military5,550 (c, e)
Iraqi Civilians200,000 (d, e, f)
Current Iraq War Cost in Human Lives(b)$1.5 trillion
US in Afghanistan618
US 1st Gulf War148
US in Vietnam153,363

(a) Source: Daily coverage by The Oregonian, NPR, and BBC. See other counters. Some casualties may be underestimated.
(b) The human costs of lost lives are inestimable, but a basis for estimating the financial costs is available. Assumptions: In 2008, the Environmental Protection Agency uses a stardard value of $6.9 million for each statistical life saved by proposed regulations. A second assumption is that all human lives are equally valuable, irrespective of culture, race, age, sex, national origin, or political affiliation. You can do the math and see the additional billions in costs.
(c) Based on NRP report by Tom Gjelton, April 30, 2003. General Brooks' reported 2,000 as the estimated body count for the 3rd Infantry Task Force tour through southwestern Baghdad, April 5, 2003 (NPR). Iraqi Major Salah Abdullah Mahdi al Jabouri reported "one-third of his 4,000 brigade" killed (Gazette-Times April 19, 2003:A6).
(d) Also includes prison deaths. For latest estimate from Iraqi Body Count. See also Niko Price, AP writer "Iraq Toll," Gazette-Times and Oregonian, 06/11/2003:A1; Daniel Cooney and Omar Sinan, AP survey of morgues, Gazette-Times 5/24/2004:A1. They report 4,279 deaths through April 30, 2004 in Bagdhad's 5.6 million population.
(e)The Lancet, October 29, 2004 published a study estimating the deaths to Iraqi military and civilians at more than 100,000. The NewScientist summarizing the Lancet report says, "The most common cause of death is as a direct result of violence, mostly caused by coalition air strikes, reveals the study of almost 1000 households scattered across Iraq. And the risk of violent death just after the invasion was 58 times greater than before the war. The overall risk of death was 1.5 times more after the invasion than before. "The figure of 100,000 – estimated by extrapolating the surveyed households’ death toll to the whole population - is based on "conservative assumptions", notes Les Roberts at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, US, who led the study. "That estimate excludes Falluja, a hotspot for violence. If the data from this town is included, the study points to about 200,000 excess deaths since the outbreak of war."
(f) See United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Human Rights Report

US Military Deaths by Month

graph

Bigger - Recovering after a war

All prewar rebuilding cost estimates have been exceeded.

Biggest - Indirect costs

  • $??? trillions in damage to Middle East, world, and US economies by diverting resources to war. More trillions in lost economic opportunity.
  • American presitge is decreasing is most places around the world.
    • Jimmy Carter says (NPR, 2/25/2003), "Anti-American sentiment is at the highest point that I have ever witnessed in my life."
    • The 2006 US terrorist assessment says US citizens are more subject to terrorism
    • Loss of past friends, polarizing our support in the world.
  • Our actions end up benefitting those were are trying to fight by increasing oil prices, weakened dollar, and limited resources to apply to health, education, and social issues worldwide.
  • Inability to respond to possibly more important global crises such as Georgia, the Phillipines, Rwanda.
  • Loss of the Moral High Ground
    • Europeans question US intentions
    • "World's good will toward the US evaporated," Oregonian 2/20/2003:A4.
    • Pretending invincibility when we should be collaborating and showing leadership.
  • We bring negative consequences to neighbors and friends.
    • Potential for strike on Israel increases.
    • Protests and rioting are taking a toll on property and policing costs worldwide.
    • Brings the prospect for wider war in the Middle East.
  • Loss of historic sites and places of cultural and religious significance.

Potential Better Expenditures?

  • increasing international aid to reduce the number of people living on less than $2 per day.
  • improving education, particularly for women.
  • solving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
  • dealing with the tragic consequences of the HIV-AIDS epidemic.
  • improving the quality of heatlh care for children.
  • fixing deteriorating infrastructure.

Who Pays?

  • Future generations
  • The poor
  • Lost opportunities to improve the human contition.

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