Missing the bluster now that the debates are over? Rufus at the WxCafé® sets up more opportunity for bluster in our future. Robin
Friday October 21
Dry weather is on the horizon, but we have to get out of park first. What in the world? Fill up and sip on.
Rather foggy and drippy, esp south of Salem today, with added showers over much of the PNW Saturday. The next stronger series of wet systems are due to begin by late Sat night or early Sunday morning. Just plain WET to start the last week of a truly water-logged 2016 October. An upper level low, and accompanying surface low will "park" just west of the PNW coastline next week, so expect the winds to be gusty along the coast and plenty of rain everywhere under a relatively warm flow aloft.
California will begin to get into the WET CYCLE by Tue, as the rain field moves south into the Golden State as the week progresses. That means the PNW finally garners a 36-48 hr break in the wetness. Take it!! All indications are for another round of blustery HEAVY RAINS starting the last couple days of October, on through Halloween and not ending until approx Thu night November 3.
Model outlook varies for the Nov 4-8 period. The trend has been favoring a dry ridge building over the west, with strong "Santa Ana" type N to NE winds over CA. This would yield the longest dry stretch (3-5 days) for the PNW we have seen in quite some time. Dare we believe?
Lots of cold storm action will be developing over the far western Pacific, which may portend a lot of stormy, mountain snow weather for the PNW around mid-November. Way back in August, we pondered the impact of cold atmospheric conditions over an oddly named Chukchi Sea & the Bering Sea on a rainy start to fall. Now, we sip through our morning beverage and find the impact to have merit many weeks later. Yes, a simplistic perspective for wx geeks, but enough of a ponder point to merit discussion around the counter at the ole' WxCafe.
Bottom line: plenty of rain coming to add to the already super wet October. We all hope for model accuracy in the extended-range, because by Nov 3, we will be desperate for dry, DRY, D R Y.
"The further a society strays from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it." -George Orwell
Next update Sunday evening because your host has an early flight to The Big Easy on Monday. Back in Oregon Nov 4.
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Rufus at the WxCafé ® cautions to beware the Ides of October. Be safe everyone! Robin
Friday October 14
Just back in Oregon from Ohio. Thanks for patience on the delayed posting.
Two weeks ago we first mentioned "the biggest wind event" for Oct 15. Now, everyone's attention is focused on the potential WIND PRODUCER that some in the Nat'l Wx Service Portland office have coined as "The Ides of October Storm".
Rather than deal with excessive details, the key aspect of tomorrow's storm will be just how close to the coast (or "inside the 130", in wx geek speak) the surface low tracks once it makes the turn to the NE. NOTE: there have been a few solutions that indicate a secondary surface low forming to the NW of the center of the Ides storm (actually, much like what happened to our big storm last evening), and that impact would be to draw away some of the tight energy from our critical storm. Let's hope that we do catch this break! No one wants power loss, property damage, or fatalities.
Anyway, the latest runs do track the center of the storm inside the 130 and show landfall around the central WA coast with a pressure of 978-980 mb. That would definitely give a monster wind slap to patrons to the south of that center (think Willamette Valley, Portland, SW WA); expect many of us to be under high wind warnings a la the Nat'l Wx Service by Saturday morning. The strongest gusts are likely Saturday afternoon into the evening for OR; tad later for western WA patrons. FYI: a couple days ago, the center pressure was progged in the lower 960s - before that second low started showing up on the charts - hence the high concern for property, etc. This could still happen, as nature does its own thing, but that secondary low may safe us.
For patrons north of Chehalis, on up to Bellingham area, if the center tracks farther north, you will become more in play for the strongest gusts. You all got slapped fairly strongly last night, but this time the ground will be even more water-logged, so toppled trees may become common.
Inland gusts of >60-70 mph may not be out of the picture, so please have your car parked where a tree or large limb doesn't fall on it, charge up those cell phones, double check anything outside by the house that could become air borne and strike a building/vehicle. No, The WxCafe (TM) is NOT trying to nanny you, just poking around in the Reminder Cupboard.
HEAVY RAIN will accompany the next storm, as everyone has heard. As noted, the secondary low that is progged to form will extended the windy conditions (although not as strong) into Sunday, with added rainfall. That low is modeled to dip to about 984-988 mb by the time it rolls over NW WA - much like the event happening Friday afternoon as this is being written.
Next week promises to be much calmer, seasonal. The third, tightly packed storm we expected on Mon/Tue has now all but dropped off the map, but showers remain in play on Monday. If you are looking for dry conditions, OR area could turn dry late Tue into Thu, but showers remain on the chart for NW WA as fronts continue to train across Vancouver Is. RAIN returns to much of western OR and continues over western WA on Friday Oct 21. The weekend of Oct 22,23 will start out with showers and then a COLDER AIR MASS will drop in from the NW, so mountain snow will begin in earnest all day Sunday and Monday. Chilly rain everywhere else. Yep, Classic October weather.
It could clear out by Tuesday morning, Oct 25 for a chance of a light frost, if fog is not in your area. Frost on the pumpkin. Mostly dry Tue & Wed the 25th-26th.
Now the sorry part: we may be right back into the powerful winds, heavy rain storm pattern to end the month of Spooks. Seriously, hints are there for another back-to-back series of strong pacific storms starting late Wed or Thu Oct 26,27 on into the following weekend. Stay tuned, patron.
Rufus at the WxCafé ® has sent out a Special Statement regarding for dangerous wind and flood potential with the upcoming storms. Robin
Wednesday October 12
DANGEROUS WIND POTENTIAL
Three powerful WIND and heavy rain storms are scheduled to strike the PNW in the next few days. BE PREPARED, patron! The Nat'l Wx Service will be providing updates as the series of storms approach our region of the country. Here is the latest as of this morning.
Storm 1: Timed for approx tomorrow morning, Thu Oct 13, this system will move up just west of the Oregon coast inside the 130W longitude line. Barometric center is progged in the range of 976-980 mb as it spins north and passes over Vancouver Is. The barometric difference between Crescent City CA and Vancouver Island could be 24 mb. Strong wind producer, esp along the coast. Gusts >40 mph are probable inland, west of Cascades, esp Willamette Valley. Heavy rain. A secondary low may form right behind the first on Thu night, generating another wind field, although not as strong. Heavy rain from this front will slam into CA from Sacramento north.
Storm 2: The Ghost of SANDGA, the western pacific typhoon. This is the big one of the 3. Baro center modeled to deepen to 956-960 mb as it approaches the coast of NW WA and going onshore over Vancouver Is. (Columbus Day storm, Oct 12, 1992 was 960 mb.) The barometric difference between Crescent City CA and Vancouver Island with Storm 2 could be >32 mb. KEY is the storm track, as WINDS will be hurricane force along the coast with definite possibility for gusts >55-65 mph inland. The 'saving grace' for Storm 2 is - as of today - that the center will track a bit farther west of Storm 1 before turning north, this can keep the strongest winds from striking inland. It would only take a path difference of 50- 75 miles closer to the OR coast to turn Storm 2 into a super storm. BE PREPARED for power outages that could last more than a day in some locations. HEAVY RAIN, esp south of Eugene into northern CA. Saturated soils and foliage on trees will compound the wind impact.
Storm 3: While smaller in scale, the third system is modeled to have a track right across the mouth of the Columbia and on over Yakima. With a center pressure progged at 984-988 mb, and a track directly onshore near Astoria, this WIND PUPPY could actually produce powerful winds in the Willamette Valley of the 3. Barometric difference from Ashland to Chehalis could be >24 mb in a very 'small space', relative to the previous two storms. Point being: another dangerous wind situation is possible early Tue Oct 18. More rain, too, of course.
Again, the purpose of this Special Statement is to wake everyone up to a major 'triple play' wind situation across much of the PNW, as well as FLOODING issues. Don't hesitate to get ready. Your host is attending meetings in Ohio, so will not have another chance to update here until return to Oregon late Fri afternoon (that will be a bumpy landing).
Rufus at the WxCafé ® promises plenty of bluster to finish off the week. Robin
Sunday October 9
Early travel to Ohio on Monday, so here's the latest update on the rough weather that is on the way for the PNW.
The cold front from the north that brought the blah weather today will have swung east by the time many of you read this update. Cold air behind the front in the far eastern quadrant of WA will tease temps down into the 30s overnight early this week, while the rest of the region enjoys 3 days of dry, patchy fog-in-the-morning conditions. By late Wed, expect clouds to move in rapidly from the west as the series of potent storms begins.
Steady rain should blanket western WA, OR, northern CA and BC by sunrise Thu Oct 13. Then, HEAVY RAIN moves in later overnight Thu along with increasing SW winds. Storm warnings likely to be hoisted by the Nat'l Wx Service along the OR coast, with a 972 mb center low moving closer & closer to the coast on Friday. Even though the center will 'fill in' barometrically speaking to approx 984 mb as it tracks onshore north of Astoria overnight Fri, the WIND FIELD will be the strongest of the fall season. Buckle down anything around your property or business that will blow around. We hope the hoop/tunnel patrons heeded our early message several days ago. This will be the first big wind. Another, potentially stronger system will promptly follow the Fri night storm.
What is currently Tropical Storm SONGDA east of Japan will rapidly race across the Pacific and arrive with its 'remnant' costume on late Saturday night, Oct 15. The models estimate a center pressure of 968 mb moving just west of N Vancouver Island early Sunday morning. While farther north than many of our most powerful wind producing storms (the Columbus Day storm, Oct 12, 1962 was 960 mb when it came onshore in NW WA), the remnants of SONGDA will kick up quite a bluster for many in OR, WA & Vancouver Is.
HEAVY RAIN will be another aspect of the systems coming soon. The earlier stages of the event will focus the heavy rainfall rather broadly, but with the SONGDA storm, northern CA and southern OR will get hammered. The rain field will move northward again by Tue Oct 18, as another pair of very wet fronts slam into western WA Tue, Wed & Thu. Yeah, a mess. Be prepared for localized flooding. Power outages are also highly probable.
Fri Oct 21 could turn dry for OR, while still more rain will fall over the northwest corner of WA & Vancouver Is.; an even heavier rain event is modeled to hit the same locations Sat & early Sun, Oct 22,23. Will it ever end?
Sunday afternoon and Monday Oct 24 may turn out dry for just about everyone in the PNW. We sure hope so, because more wind and rain is progged for early Tue. Vancouver Is. may get a major WIND SLAP from this last storm in the series (forecast pressure difference of 22 mb over the island). Hold on!
Bottom line: prepare for The Drenching. The Storms They Are A Coming.
We are starting up our 16th season of OktoberPest workshops and I think several will be relevant for grower stakeholders wanting to reduce pesticide impacts. The first, this Thursday morning, Oct. 6., we are offering our OktoberPest – Going Soft: Designing Target-Focused IPM Programs workshop. Come meet our new OSU faculty member working with pollinators, Dr. Andony Melathopoulos, who will speak about pollinator protection and how to reduce bee poisonings. We will have Mary Halblieb from the Integrated Plant Protection Center at OSU and Karen Lewotsky from the Oregon Environmental Council talk about the tactics and results that have been part of the Pesticide Stewardship Program in nurseries. Sam Doane from J. Frank Schmidt & Son Co. will share how they have adopted practices to mitigate impact of pesticides and reduce pesticide use. I think it will be a very informative and hopefully inspiring, workshop for those using pesticides in our nursery systems.
OktoberPest workshops are designed to provide a great learning environment to learn practical, useful information that can be readily adopted. One of the best deals around for pest management information, our registration cost is only $25 and the workshop will have 3 pesticide license recertification credit hours available. The agenda is at the link below.