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02-27-2017 09:50:25

Weather update

Another soggy futuring from Rufus at The Weather Café ®. Robin

Monday February 27

 

Last post of the month.  Plenty of rain and snow have blanketed the west coast during the 2nd month of Twenty Seventeen.  What will March present?  It hasn't changed much since our last morn'n beverage.

 

Cold showers today through Tue, then the air mass will warm up a bit as the upper-level winds shift to a westerly flow.  Still, as a colleague in the Seattle Nat'l Wx Service office stated today, COPIOUS SNOW in the mountains will continue.  

 

Last Friday, we broached a concern about flooding issues in NW WA starting the end of this week. The good news is, that specific threat has diminished somewhat because the 'jet' will not be so tightly targeted & 'stationary' over NW WA; Oregon and portions of CA will now get more precipitation in that time period than the earlier prog indications.  That said, the models continue to prog HEAVY RAIN (& copious snow) over a broader area of the PNW during a 2-3 day period NEXT week, not this weekend as expected earlier.  Long-time Patrons know that the overall trend of the wx patterns foreseen by the models is amazingly accurate; it's the precise timely that is lacking.  

 

The only BREAK in wet weather over OR (mainly south of Salem/Eugene) is likely this week.  Then, as noted above, plenty of steady, day-after-day rainfall well into the middle of March.  Drips.  A large COLD pool of air will remain centered over the Gulf of Alaska, setting up the extended wet cycle and ALSO keeping the PNW colder than normal.  This leads to ACHES in the bones of many (your host included).  Arthritis does, indeed, turn nasty during these cold, damp cycles.  Drips & Aches.

 

March 10-15 looks WET and quite chilly.  Depending on which solution we emphasis, snow levels may trend below 1,500 ft with plenty of hail & chance for uplift-induced thunderstorms over the PNW, with CA also getting additional precip / storm activity.  There is no extending dry period presented by the models on a consistent basis.  Ag interests will not be pleased (mental aches), should this verify.

 

A real student answer to a test question (Patrons comment that they enjoy these):

Question: State two major world religions.

A student's answer:  1) The Force in Star Wars  2) Football

 

-Rufus

 

 

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Weather update

02-24-2017 09:26:08

Weather update

Floatation devices ready? Rufus at The Weather Café ® has us in the rinse cycle for a while yet. Robin

Friday February 24

 

The current cold pattern will yield to a excessively wet cycle over WA state; mid-March looks chilly.  Don't hide the Hot Chocolate.

 

All of the snow & snow/rain mixed shower activity across much of the PNW will continue through the weekend.  Sunday will be the best chance for another surface tease of snow as the next, organized system drops in from the BC coast.  With more moisture associated with the system, the measure of snow in the foothills will be above that from yesterday.  

 

The new concern (yes, what an endless winter of wx IMPACT we are experiencing on the west coast!) will be FLOOD issues that are likely to pop into the picture by the first weekend of March.  Details: a ridge of high pressure is modeled to build into the PNW after the Sunday Snow shower front.  Monday will be relatively dry, with scattered showers diminishing.  By late Monday night into Tue, more rain will move in (not as cold as the Sunday system).  As the week progresses, the 'jet stream' winds will tighten and strengthen right over western WA, esp Puget Sound.  This translates into excessive heavy RAIN for several days in a row.  Oregon should remain south of the heavy impact zone, if you will, although some precip may clip the NW corner of OR.  Back to WA: by the end of the week, each system will direct heavier amounts of precip into the NW WA area.  It will be a FLOOD issue, if the models are correct.  By Saturday/Sunday, heavy rain will drop into OR, as well.  

 

Want a break?  Well, dream on.  More moderate-to-heavy rain will continue to strike the PNW during the week of Mar 6-10, although it will calm down a bit as the week ends.  NW WA will get hammered Tue & Wed, Mar 7,8.  Boats and Floats.  Seriously, this pattern has the potential to create serious issues for Patrons in western WA.  Be prepared, just in case.

 

The weekend of Mar 11,12 is currently progged to be quite wet.  As Sunday Mar 12 approaches, cold air behind the storm will drawn down snow levels to the lowest in the Mar 1-12 period.  Cold air may be kept in play as the middle of March unfolds, although we could enjoy desperately needed relief from the heavy rainfall. 

 

Farm activity is not going to get accomplished over the next 2 weeks.  Keep that in mind, growers.

 

"A speaker who doesn't strike oil in twenty-five minutes should stop boring."  

 

-Rufus

 

 

Copyright © 2017 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ® 

 


Weather update

02-21-2017 15:33:58

Weather update

So Rufus at The Weather Café ® harkens another chance of snow. Buck up, maties, we've another round of cold yet. Robin

Quick Update - Tuesday Febraury 21

 

Business here in St Louis has not yield enough free time yesterday for the normal Monday morning WxCafe™ update.  A break Tue afternoon does.

 

Turning colder, as we expected, mid-week, with snow down to 500-1,000 ft in most PNW locations.  Showers of snow/rain mix at valley levels, with an inch accumulation not out of the question under a heavy cloudburst.  

 

Trending chilly & drier over the weekend.  California will be in the water spotlight yet again mid-weekend into Monday.

 

A cold wet weather pattern is likely to start the week of Feb 27.  But the big news will a rain-changing-to-ALL-Snow event as the first weekend of March gets underway.  This has been showing up on the long-range charts for several days, so we must keep you alerted to the potential for one more SNOW event in the PNW this winter.  Some solutions warm us up quickly after a few inches of snow everywhere in the Fri-Sun, Mar 3-5 period; other runs keep us in the frig on into the first full week of the new month.  Either way, winter is likely to tap us on the shoulder again.



Update this Friday.



-Rufus

 

 

 Copyright © 2017 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ® 

 


Weather update

02-17-2017 12:20:13

New carnation tortrix page

I’ve posted a new carnation tortrix gallery with images and additional resources at the link. While most of the damage from this species is apparent in the late spring and summer, we have found overwintering larvae in dwarf ‘Alberta’ spruce as early as February. It might be worthwhile to monitor now for signs of larvae in areas that have a history of carnation tortrix damage. Robin

 


carnation tortrix page

02-17-2017 07:47:59

Weather update

Keep your jackets handy as Rufus at The Weather Café ® makes mention of cold and the "S" word. Robin

Friday February 17

 

Colder wx will return to the PNW.  Jackets ready?

 

Wet weekend ahead, with showers on Saturday yielding to more steady rain by Sunday afternoon as a system pushes into the region from the west.  Late Sunday night into Monday a much stronger storm will generate a decent WIND FIELD and more rain through early Tue.  Note: WIND could be rather intense at times with this system, although timing & intensity remain uncertain for all the typical reasons - depth of center pressure, track of that center, etc.  Mugs up, this storm will demand notice.  

 

Concurrently, a powerful storm today, and the windy one noted above, will have major impact on CA.  Today & Sat will be southern Cal's turn to get absolutely hammered by heavy, flooding type rainfall along with potential for thunderstorms.  Tomato operations & vacationers in Baja CA will also get slammed.  Water water everywhere for the Golden State for the next 5-6 days.

 

After our storm on Monday, conditions will calm down over the PNW and also turn notably colder.   The news-making cold system to hit CA mid-week will put us on the cold side of the 'jet', so expect low snow levels (foothills) & frost, should the sky clear in your location Thu morning.  As next week ends, we could be in for SNOW down to the surface, or so close it will still have impact.  Models have posed several scenarios that bring a moisture-laden cold front down from the coast of BC Fri into Sat, teasing out The White Stuff as mentioned when the front moves deep into CA; other solutions keep the PNW drier - still chilly though - as the coldest block of air moves south off the WA/OR coast.  Either way, cold showers, with potential for snow/rain mix at the surface possible through the weekend on into the last 2 days of February.  The WxCafe (TM) will prog that we have a real chance for another snow event as next week ends.  Be ready, just in case.

 

What about early March?  Well, we have already made note of model runs showing the threat for cold, snowy weather to start the lion's roar for March.  For every solution that brings warm SW air into the region, with plenty of normal rainfall, another solution brings down Arctic Air into the region for cold, snowy conditions.  What will be important to watch is the position of the Arctic High Pressure Dome as it drops south into the lower 48.  Seasonally, it tracks far enough to the east to have minimal-to-no impact on the PNW; however, the wx computer solutions continue to prog the unusual - for this time of year - position of the High being farther west, and impacting the PNW directly.  Long-time Patrons know that we present the possibilities and keep our mugs handy in waiting.

 

Summary:  WET, then definitely colder to end February.  Jacket weather.  Possible to have snow or snow/rain mixed at times after Wed on into early next weekend.  Then, either seasonally wet or unusually cold to start the month of March.  

 

"Skiing may be a winter activity but some think of it as a fall sport."  (Lame, yes, but that's all you get today!)

 

Heading to St Louis on Sunday.  The Monday update may be timed differently.  Thanks for your patience.

 

-Rufus

 

 

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Weather update

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