The WxCafe ™ is forcasting a turn to cooler weather. Heather
Monday May 20 (Victoria Day, Canada) Earlier this month the extended-range looked so favorable: sunny, warm, dry, awesome. Well, the models have drifted away from perfect May wx to typical PNW clouds, precip, and cool. Shall we? Today will be "it" from the favorable dept -- best day of the week: mild and dry (north of Everett, the clouds are likely to arrive later today). By Tuesday, a unseasonably strong cold front will begin to impact the region. Expect breezy conditions, much colder temperatures, snow below the mountain passes, HAIL, rain. Get the picture? The system is progged to stall out over the PNW, keeping us in crummy wx all week, although it will slowly warm, with the showers more widely scattered, on Thurs & Fri. For a couple of weeks now, Memorial Weekend has been progged to be on the mostly fair, mild, dry side. While not a complete throw-away, the latest model solutions hint of a few scattered showers, esp overnight Saturday/Sunday. Increasing chance for precip late Monday, as well. Temps not in the 'let's-go-swimming' range, but still acceptable to patrons in the PNW. We have had much worse. The last week of May continues to look on the damp, cool side, with a westerly-to-northwesterly flow aloft dragging in mulitple surface disturbances for a cooler-than-average, showery pattern. Geez, there goes the May to remember. For the fruit industry, the scattered precip will hinder mid-to-late bloom pollinator activity, and tend to spread out the post-peak harvest period just a bit more than expected two weeks ago. Early June still looks to be drier, warmer than May's end. Again, dare we believe? "The mud-thrower never has clean hands." On base here in Oregon for the next two weeks, -Rufus Copyright © 2013 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
The WxCafe™ forecast includes a little of everything. Heather
Friday May 17
This month is zooming by; time travel. Nice to be home from a pleasant week in Toledo, Ohio. Yep, another late flight. Thank goodness for strong mug of java this a.m. OK, so what's up with the weather?
Breezy, northwesterly winds will continue on through the weekend, with a bit of shower action at times. Not super wet, not totally dry. Note that eastern basins are likely to see a few thunderstorms pop up, localized heavy showers. For the west side, showers increasing late Saturday, then a bit of a break before another cold cell of activity forms just off the coast and slides into the PNW Tues/Wed. Sunday & Monday should be present delightful afternoons for most of us. The mid-week downturn is modeled to have fairly cold air associated with it in the mid-upper levels, so thunderstorms probable after the cold front passes, esp for the mountains and eastern basins. The cooler pattern will tap-down pollination activity in caneberry fields, however it looks to be a brief downturn. Oh, two more coffee chat points: westerly winds will really kick-up through the Columbia River Gorge and possibility for HAIL action that could damage some tender plant tissue - both sides of the mountains. Just sayin'.
Memorial. As the first extended weekend of the summer season kicks off, expect temps to rebound and the air mass to dry down. The thunderstorm/shower activity along the eastern slopes of the Cascades will also calm down, as well. Favorable outlook for Fri, May 24 on through at least Wed, May 29. Temps in the 70s to 80s in most locations; maybe a tad warmer across southern OR. There are a few solutions that keep boomer activity going along the eastern Cascades and scattered across the eastern basins.
Latest model scenarios generate a cold cell (quite similar to the one discussed above) forming again in the May 29 - 31 period. A carbon copy? If this happens, expect rather intense shower activity and potential for hail. The cell should not be quite as cold as the former; still, the negative aspects warrante mentioning.
The Reach: Looking into early June, a favorable shift in the pacific high pressure ridge may take place, moving it closer to western CONUS (Continental US), setting up an extended warm, dry - but not too hot - pattern. Perfect for a quality NW strawberry season. Dare we believe?
From the real-school exam answer file: "What is a nitrate? It is much cheaper than a day rate."
On the caffeine rate here, -Rufus
Copyright © 2013 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
The forecast from Rufus includes cooler, more showery weather. Heather
Monday May 13
Greetings from Toledo. Brief update.
Some rather stormy wx action possible this afternoon, then a shift to more stable, showery pattern. Rapidly moving cold front will stir up a windy afternoon, esp east of the Cascades, along with the chance for hail and/or thunder on both sides of the mountains. Generally a showery pattern through the rest of the week, with decent breaks between weak surface disturbances. Seasonally normal temps, as compared to the warmer temps of late. The weekend should not be too bad, as models disagree on specifics -- maybe a few showers early, then warmer Sunday. The week of May 20 will turn damp by Wed or so, as an upper level trough sets up just west of the Oregon coast, spinning clouds & showers inland. Late week, the system should begin to shift to the east, setting off notable precip over eastern basins on into ID, MT.Memorial Day weekend continues to look dry and mild.
-Rufus
The WxCafe ™ weather forecast brings some needed rain. Heather
< Note: system may have prevented Friday's post from getting out, hence this 'repost'. If you received this twice, sorry. Not trying to flood. -Rufus > Friday May 10 There be a change in the works, so many will not have to irrigate early next week. However, the heat may return. Mug full? As another cold slice of air slams across the great lake states, Mid-west, and on into the east coast for a cool, damp weekend, the PNW will also see a change in the weather. The much discussed surface disturbance remains on target to push into our region on Sunday. Rain/showers will start over NW WA first, then swing on south through much of OR. Mother's Day will turn damp. Yes, some precip will dampen eastern basins, well into portions of ID & MT by Monday. There is a secondary front modeled to arrive Monday/Tuesday (although a few solutions downplay this score), so a relatively extended period of cooler, showery wx conditions may result north of Eugene on into NW WA & BC, keeping the PNW under a dust control program through Tues. The specialists estimate anywhere from a quarter to half inch of total precip during this downturn. Note that the high sun angle, coupled with cold air aloft, could intensity showers and dump a notable amount of rain in isolated locations. Get the drip? Mid-to-late week, it remains possible for a 3rd disturbance to swing past, adding the threat for additional showers. That remains to be confirmed. However, temps will definitely step down several degrees for the week. The weekend of May 18,19 has been forecast to be on the cooler side, damp side early, followed by potential for another warm ridge of high pressure returning by Sunday/Monday. Also, a combining upper level low may set up over eastern OR, setting off muggy conditions and thunderstorms east of the Cascades during the week of May 20; should remain dry & warm west of the Cascades. Bees will be working. Early reach: the crystal ball is a bit blurry concerning Memorial Weekend, however, conditions may remain favorable coming off a mild week noted above. Some solutions bring a few showers, clouds into the picture Friday & Saturday, then drying/warming. All a bit uncertain at this time. Overall, expect a downturn in the weather over the next week, with adequate precip for some crops (others may need to keep their irrigation schedule "on program" should the heat continue to be progged for May 19-21). Generally, temps will be warm enough - when coupled with the moisture - to warrant close attention to plant disease management, be it on roses or at-risk crops. Stop back here again Monday for the latest. "One of the quickest ways to meet new people is to pick up the wrong ball on the golf course." -Rufus Copyright © 2013 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Another pest sighting for you -
Boxwood leafminer adults have been spotted emerging from pupation in their mines. This is a key timing for control. For more information, check the link. Kudos to David Hicks for the observation and great images (one image up and more to come).