You don't have to be a boomer to know it is boomer weather right now. Rufus at the WxCafe? confirms the chance for them tonight and later this week. I'm off traveling for work and won't be able to post WxCafe alerts until my return. If you want to check up on the alerts, check the WeatherCafe link on Mondays and Fridays to get your bi-weekly dose. I'll be back with lots of good pest management info. Robin
Monday August 10
Sometimes the simple breaks into complex pieces. The weather pattern prognosis for the next 7-10 days has such a simple complexity. Good to know that your morning beverage is an easy call. Go refill that mug and read on.
An upper level low positioned west of the OR coast will be the driver of our weather now through the end of next week. The main attribute of this pattern is a southern flow aloft (that will shift from S to SW to SE, depending on the day & your position) because that simple low will spin its way down off the coast of CA, then by the end of the week, retro back north before falling apart over WA on Saturday.
The complexity of this one, simple low is in the model uncertainty as to precise movement. Here's an example: if the low fills in off the coast of CA and doesn't move north, the PNW will simply heat up by Friday and be dry (solution discussed here last week). If the low hangs together and does, indeed, retro-track right back up the OR coast, then THUNDERSTORM activity - some of which could be INTENSE over eastern basins - will be the weather we endure. Particular features of the atmosphere during the movement of this low suggests a potential for a considerable amount of dry lightning, which is an obvious FIRE danger. So you see, the simple low has a complex impact on PNW weather throughout this weekend and all of next week.
Because the low remains off the coast, temperatures will trend on the warm side during the week. 80s to lower 90s, with cooler conditions in the northern tier of the PNW. Thunderstorms will pop up over the eastern basins and Cascades, some of which may drift west. The humidity will also be elevated. Highest chance for west side boomers will be later this evening & again Thu & Fri as the low moves north.
The coming weekend will end warmer than it starts, as the clouds/cooler temps, because of the low moving across WA, fade away to a much warmer Sunday.
The week of Aug 17 continues to present as warm turning cooler, with showers moving in from the north by mid-week, primarily north of Portland. Expect temperatures to head back up into the high 80s to mid-90s by Fri, Sat Aug 21,22. Turning cooler to end that weekend. A 'repeat', if you will, of a cool trough from the north breaking up the heat.
Ponder point: what appears to be happening is that the large high pressure 'blocking ridge' of the summer of 2015 is modeled to move farther west over the pacific, opening the door for the occasional 'remnants' of western pacific typhoons/storms to ride up & over the top of the ridge, back down into the PNW. Spacing between the low pressure waves appears to be approx. 3-4 days apart. Is it possible for that ridge to shift a tad north, as well, opening the door for cooler, damp, almost fall-like weather later in August? Ah, the wonder of how the simple breaks into the complex.
"A skillful politician is one who can stand up and rock the boat, then make you believe he's the only one who can save you from the storm."
Lot's of boat rocking this week!
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New Release from the Oregon Department of Agriculture. Robin
Cattle overtakes nursery as Oregon’s top ag commodity Preliminary statistics show a new ranking of production value among crops & livestock August 5, 2015… For the first time in 20 years, there’s a new leader among Oregon’s diverse agricultural commodities in terms of production value. Cattle and calves has regained the top spot with a record breaking year in 2014, overtaking greenhouse and nursery products. It was 1994 when greenhouse and nursery supplanted cattle and calves as number one. Newly released statistics from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provides a preliminary picture of last year’s crop and livestock value of production. The numbers indicate that Oregon agriculture continues to be a major economic contributor to the state. The overall estimate for total production value in 2014 is about $5.4 billion, which is roughly unchanged from the past couple of years. Some commodities have shown tremendous increases while others have declined. The successful ones rely on a formula of good production and high prices for what was sold. With Oregon producing more than 220 commodities as part of its agriculture, there will always be some winners and some losers any given year. In general, the results of 2014 show more pluses than minuses. The value of agricultural production in Oregon last year includes a top ten list that reflects the new leader, but most of the names are familiar. There is some shuffling in the rank order: (1) Cattle and calves, $922 million (2) Greenhouse and nursery products, $830 million (3) Hay, $703 million (4) Milk, $656 million (5) Grass seed, $449 million (6) Wheat, $302 million (7) Potatoes, $164 million (8) Hazelnuts, $129 million (9) Pears, $127 million (10) Wine grapes, $118 million In addition to cattle and calves swapping places with greenhouse and nursery products from the previous year’s list, wine grapes cracked the top ten while onions dropped out. All top ten commodities showed an increase in production value from 2013 with the exception of wheat and potatoes. For the first time in history, Oregon had two commodities above the $800 million mark in production value and four commodities valued at more than a half billion dollars. Onions, Christmas trees, and blueberries just missed the top ten list yet still eclipsed $100 million in production value. “It was generally a great year for Oregon’s farmers and ranchers,” says Kathryn Walker, special assistant to the director for the Oregon Department of Agriculture. “When you have so many commodities with a production value above $500 million, that’s impressive.” By far, the most dramatic rise in production value in Oregon comes from cattle country– a nearly 38 percent increase from 2013 to 2014. “That industry hasn’t been number one since the early 90s, so I’m sure it’s exciting to them to be a leader once again,” says Walker. “There have been some very strong cattle prices the last couple of years and that is reflected in the value of production for cattle and calves.” The cattle and calves category is also approaching a status enjoyed only once by an Oregon agricultural commodity– the billion dollar club. Greenhouse and nursery products reached $1.039 billion in 2007. A year later, the economic recession took its toll specifically on nursery products and grass seed. Nonetheless, greenhouse and nursery is making its way back and recorded an increase of 11 percent from 2013 to 2014. Commodities with other increases in production value in 2014 include milk (+23 percent), pears (+14 percent), hay (+11 percent), wine grapes (+10 percent), grass seed (+9 percent), and hazelnuts (+7 percent). Wheat (-22 percent) and potatoes (-3 percent) were the only commodities on the negative side of the ledger. Some commodities outside the top ten recorded large increases in production value, including sweet corn (+29 percent) and blackberries (+18 percent). Blueberries, which occasionally reaches the top ten, saw a healthy increase (+8 percent) and continues to show strong gains each year. The preliminary 2014 statistics also show there are now 34,600 farms in Oregon, which is down slightly from the previous year, and the average size of farm has inched slightly to 474 acres. Included in the numbers is a list of commodities in which Oregon is the nation’s leading producer– Christmas trees, hazelnuts, grass seed, blackberries, Boysenberries, black raspberries, storage onions, and potted florist azaleas. Once again, Oregon’s diversity of agriculture protects the overall industry. Whereas Midwest states may rely on just two or three commodities, Oregon boasts 17 that have a value of at least $50 million. It’s too early to say how this year’s numbers will shake out. Drought conditions could result in some commodities taking a drop in value of production. “We are going to have to watch to see how the weather impacts our producers and the yields of their commodities,” says Walker. “But our agriculture industry is resilient. They have faced these kinds of challenges before and typically bounce back.” When statistics for 2015 are tabulated sometime next year, expect to see another strong showing from the new number one. Cattle prices remains strong and the billion dollar mark for production value is within reach. For more information, contact Bruce Pokarney at (503) 986-4559.
How do you spell relief? R.U.F.U.S. at the WxCafe® foresees a cooler week ahead. Robin
Monday August 3
A respite from the heat is now in play. When will we return to the toaster? Fill that mug, patron. Let's look ahead.
The somewhat muggy conditions are actually pleasant because cloud cover held down temps west side yesterday. Some thunderstorms and showers did arrive, widely scattered. Maybe a few more today, but trend is for the westerly flow to bring on cooler temps for a few days. Indications are for a warm-up later in the week, with the coming weekend likely to be COOLER than Thu & Fri, both sides of the Cascades. Decent conditions for outdoor activity.
The week of Aug 6 may start out with scattered boomers and/or showers east of the Cascades, cool temps west side, with the potential for heat to begin building into the PNW as the week nears an end (think 90s, not triple digits). The 'Cool Corner' may, again, be the NW WA & Vancouver Is area.
The heat issue is iffy right now, as model solutions do, indeed, vary considerably. The WxCafe (TM) will point towards heat teasing the region yet again over the weekend of Aug 15,16 and then really kicking up into the miserable level through the early part of the 3rd week of the month, Aug 17-21. True, this is a on the outskirts of a confidence interval, but model solutions have been trending this direction for a couple of days. Getting a toasty wx in August is not unusual, what will be unusual is our frustration with the seemingly never ending heat this summer. Water use demands are high at a time the west coast needs to conserve.
"By the time a man can afford to lose a golf ball, he can't hit it that far."
Just a little more searing heat but soon some relief according to Rufus at the WxCafe®. Robin
Friday July 31
The end of another miserable heat event in the PNW will arrive next week. Until then, wilting people, plants, fire concerns. Beverage refilled yet?
The heat has been amazing, and for patrons in southern Oregon, fire concerns have been justified. Yesterday a fire - which literally took on the "form of a thunderstorm, causing numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and hundreds of in-cloud rumbles" - started early in the afternoon and grew to approx. 6,000 acres (report courtesy of BTL, NWS Medford office). Triple digit & 90+ degree heat to continue today and Saturday for much of the PNW, cooling slightly from the north as the weekend unfolds. Mid-level moisture from the south will move into the area, setting off fire risk thunderstorms and adding to the misery index because of the humidity. Some of the storms may drift over western locations; nearly all will experience 'The Muggies'.
Next week begins the comforting cool-down. Cooler air from the west will move onshore, as will the prevailing breezes. In fact, a surface low that forms near the southern Alaskan panhandle will shift into the PNW by Wed or so, ushering in mostly cloudy periods & a few showers, esp Olympia north. The weekend of Aug 8,9 should be dry, with warm, seasonal temps.
As August gets underway, model runs indicate a dry pattern, with reasonably pleasant temps early in the period and a threat for The Nines to return by Fri, Aug 14, setting up another HOT weekend, Aug 15,16. FYI: some solutions keep temperatures pleasant through that mid-month weekend. We'll see.
"Most people make the mistake of looking too far ahead for things close by."
Not looking past the ice,