More drizzle in the future according to Rufusat The Weather Café ®
Monday April 24No decent stretch of rain relief is possible this week, or the next for that matter. These long-range outlooks are becoming hard to write: No Hope, no Change. Well, at least we get to select our fav morning beverage. Got yours picked out?On / off rain & showers through early Thu this week. Any break will be measured in hours, not days. We do have the potential for almost a 2 day break coming in the Thu afternoon 'til Sat afternoon period. Come Saturday afternoon (NW WA first), another wet & chilly system will drop in from the NW, adding to the gloom of this Spring. The southern half of OR is likely to miss getting wet with the weekend storm. Note: there's a chance for FROST this Fri morning, if sky clears in your area, esp east of the Cascades.Monday May 1 brings yet another fast moving, damp disturbance into the PNW along the same path as Saturday's system. Again, dry in southern OR. As the first week of the new month progresses, Oregon Patrons may actually benefit from a lack rainfall Tue-Wed, May 2,3; not so for NW WA - weak shower system on Wed. Not super warm, but at least a short break before all turns to mush yet again by the end of the day Thu. COLD mush, as the period from Fri thru the weekend of May 6,7 progs out as WET and turning much colder than normal. In fact, if this verifies, the pattern mirrors the type that brings low level snow into the PNW during winter months. Not the issue this time, but an illustration of just how chilly it will become. Snow in the mountains, for sure. That cold an air mass overhead typically results in intense showers and HAIL. California will also get hammered by the cold front. Note: some model solutions indicate NO RAIN, and much warmer temps for Tue afternoon May 2 thru Thu May 4) leading into that cold snap. Either way, wet & chilly weather will return.Looking for 4-6 days of dry conditions? Dah. Maybe that can happen in the May 9-13 period. There are hints of a shift in the upper level wind pattern that could yield such a positive change. Temps in the 70s to low 80s could arrive.From 10 years ago: "Logic is an organized procedure for going wrong with confidence and certainty." -attributed to C.F. Kettering-RufusCopyright © 2017 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
From Rufus at The Weather Café ®. Stay positive. Robin
Good Friday 2017Will we ever find some dry weather? On the Wx Crystal Ball, it comes and goes after next week. What is the latest? Fill up and sip on.Today into early Saturday will be cooler than normal, with a chance for more small hail over portions of NW WA. All areas will be unseasonably cool tonight, with chance for frost Sat morning in areas away from the usual foggy-bottoms. Afternoon temps Sat & Sun will warm nicely. Enjoy this break, because it will be oh so short-lived. By as early as Sunday evening in southern OR, a mild rain system will begin to spin northward. The next multiple-day of wet weather could hold off hitting NW WA until later Monday; the rest of us, well, keep the umbrella handy on Monday. Mild, wet on Tue. By Wed, cooler temps will return and the precip will continue. The break, whether a couple days or longer, will begin to arrive Thu afternoon, Apr 20. Fri looks dry and warmer. Other than the slight possibility for a stray shower over western WA late Saturday, the whole weekend is progged DRY and warmer. Not the 70s we have dreamed about, but hey, take it -- take it all. It should remain dry through Monday. Yep, highly likely for a 4 day run of dry conditions - Apr 21-24. For a few days, the models held onto a dry, warm ridge of high pressure remaining over the west coast, keeping the weekend joy of dry on through at least Tue or Wed, Apr 25,26. Well, as you have already guessed by now (not that hard this year, for sure!), now it looks like RAIN will return as early as late Monday night / Tue. A short break, if at all, may happen Wed, but more rain and cooler conditions will draw out the rest of the week. Weekend of April 29,30 could turn out dry, but this forecaster is recommending that Patrons avoid that level of hope right now. Time will tell.Bottom line: there are a few more DRY days popping into the picture over the second half of April. Still, other than the break on the way starting next Thu, we just don't see that long awaited 5-6 days or more of dry weather. Growers struggling to get those spring applications on for disease & weed management, or even fertilizer, had better 'tractor up' during the 4 day break mentioned above. The temperature range over the next couple of weeks will skirt from below-normal to touching-normal; both of which will not yield enough heat units to regain "lost time" for crop development thus far in 2017. "Those who can't forget are worse off than those who can't remember." -Anon.-RufusCopyright © 2017 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
This is a great way to lighten the load! There will be a FREE Agriculture Pesticide Collection Event for Clackamas County Producers. You must pre-register for the event by April 21st. Best to register early to make sure they have room. Details are at the link. Robin
I think there is moss growing on my optimisim. Rufus at The Weather Café ® tells us it is possible we might get two-three days in a row of dry weather in about two weeks. Robin
Monday April 10
Brief update before heading to Kansas for an Entomology Project.
Showers later today, esp over NW WA as a result of a small low pressure system west of the coast. Not super wet, with temperatures warming a bit ahead of the next storm system booked to arrive later on Tue. It will move up from the SW, so expect wind to pick-up some. No, not super windy like the Seven Storm. WET Wed and Thu, turning COOLER heading into a mixed-wx Easter weekend. Frost possible Fri and/or Sat morning.
Easter: cool, chance for showers but no organized rain event likely. The cool temps will hinder soil dry down, so growers will continue to be impatient in that eternal 2017 wait for a long stretch of dry wx. Mixed outlook for late Easter into the start of the new week. Some solutions bring up another warm system from the southwest; other runs slowly move more cool air in from the west, which with the 'higher Spring sun', makes the air unstable and tends to kick-up some afternoon showers. Let's prog for a on/off damp and cool start for the week, with a WET system moving in by Wed Apr 19 (a repeat of this week!).
Damp Wed, Thu and maybe Fri, Apr 19-21. Here's where the model outlooks split yet again. They have progged back-and-forth showing a high pressure ridge building over the west coast, setting up a WARM, dry run starting either Sat or Sun, Apr 22,23 and holding into the next week. We discussed this last week, only to have models tweak back to WET for several runs. Now, it is mixed. Sorry, the indecision is confusing, but that's what we have to forecast from.
The WxCafe (TM) will go with the following: in the Apr 22-25 period it is possible for 2 maybe 3 dry days in a row of dry conditions. However, models do return a very wet storm into the picture late the 25th or early the 26th. Wet the rest of that week. Update here on Good Friday.
"Nine out of ten people like chocolate. The tenth person always lies." -John Tullius
Copyright © 2017 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Rufus at the The Weather Café ® hands us brief breaks as we muddle through the puddles. Robin
Monday March 27
A couple short breaks in the series of cool damp systems that have continued in the PNW for months are coming soon. Mind you, not a super long breaks, but encourage Patrons to enjoy before it all falls apart once again. Refill your mug and read on.
This week will not present totally dry, as another increased threat for showers, cool pool of air moves in Tue & Wed esp north of Olympia. Not a whole lot of rain, but enough to keep soils damp and umbrellas opened periodically. OR & ID area will be about 12 hrs behind in when the showers arrive. The backside of the system will usher in cool air, so it will be CHILLY in the morning hours, with a chance for frost possible Thu/Fri mornings, mainly east of the Cascades in areas free of any fog.
As the weekend nears, warmer afternoons will prevail, with April Foul's Day turning out to be one of the warmer Spring days thus far. No joke. That said, by Sunday afternoon, the next cool, damp system may usher in more shower activity across the entire PNW and less sunshine.
As the first week of April gets underway, the second short-break in the wet wx will arrive. Most likely, Mon afternoon thru early Wed, Apr 3-5, should be dry. Enjoy because plenty of moderate-to-heavy rainfall will return by Wed night. Cold & intense showers (even thunderstorm / hail action) will follow a powerful April storm front that will end the week. California will also get hammered by this storm. Freezing levels will drop, so lots of fresh snow in the mountains is expected. That lower freezing level, combined with Spring sun uplift, will contribute to those potentially hail-producing Boomers. The stormy, wet cycle, with breezy conditions, will last about 7 days - Wed night Apr 5 thru Wed Apr 12.
We could get another 2-3 day rain break Thu Apr 13 leading into Sat, TAX DAY. What happened to that 3-4 days of 70+ degree wx we dreamed of in the last update? Gone. Maybe it will pop back into our dreams. Meanwhile, take advantage of the short breaks in The Great Wait for an extended dry period this Spring.
A repeat: "Finance is the art of passing currency from hand to hand until it finally disappears."
A Tip of the Mug to the Oregon Duck Men's Basketball team for reaching the Final Four.