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08-14-2017 10:39:06

2017 IR-4 Ornamental Horticulture Program Survey

Got an opinion and want someone to listen to it? Wish you could find more information relevant to your growing conditions and pests? Have I got an opportunity for you!

The 2017 IR-4 Ornamental Horticulture Program Survey is open and waiting for you to have your turn expressing your concerns and needs regarding pest management. This is your chance to tell the IR-4 Ornamental Horticulture Program what you think Oregon nursery and greenhouse producers need for priorities when they allocate research funds in the coming years. Don't miss this opportunity or you will see mostly pest trials focused on other regions. Bonus: for once you have the green light to complain and have it do some good. And who doesn't like a nice vent about pests once and awhile? Click the link for the survey. Robin


2017 IR-4 Ornamental Horticulture Program Survey

08-14-2017 09:43:11

Weather update

Rufus at The Weather Café ® is not yet ready to totally guarantee a clear view of the totality. Robin

Monday August 14

 

Heading up to the Metolius River area, an amazingly beautiful, relaxing environment.  Second cup ready.

 

The few hours of showers and precipitation this weekend really helped to rid the smoke and heat from the PNW.  R E L I E F.  The current week will present decent, summer-time weather for all of us.  Temperatures will warm gradually each day this week.  

 

Key Focus now is obvious: The Great Eclipse.  Sky conditions remain uncertain.  Plenty of meteorological discussion in the media concerning the potential for a clear view of the Moon Shadow.  For the past 2 weeks, models have trended toward cloudy, even damp, wx right before and potentially during the Event.   We will not toss out that probability because it remains high; however, the good news is that the most recent trending has been to either hold that cloud/shower threat north of Oregon, or to delay its arrival until later Monday or as late as Tuesday, Aug 22.  Follow @TheWxCafe for any major changes as the date nears.  Of course, you can simply wait until Fri for the update here, as well.  

 

Pre-Eclipse Weekend:  now looking mild and mostly sunny.  Morning marine deck cloudiness is possible, esp along the coast and over the northern portion of the Puget Sound.  

 

Aug 21: see above.

 

Post-Eclipse:  trending for a wet Tue; showers Wed & Thu before clearing out and another fine, sunny weekend.  Temps should rebound into summer style for Aug 25,26.  Yes, last report it looked to be another hot period.  That may pop back into the models, as you know.  Last few days of August continue to look warm, seasonal.  

 

Awhile back, we mentioned the potential for a named Tropical Storm to form (either FRANKLIN or GERT), east of the Atlantic Coast.  Well, a short-lived system did tighten up near Mexico, so it got the early call, snatching the name FRANKLIN.  Now, the Atlantic storm we discussed has garnered the name GERT.  Not a threat to the eastern seaboard, since the high pressure pattern will keep it off shore.  GERT will be a fish storm.  Another shot may develop later in August, as systems moving off the west coast of Africa continue.  However, dry Sahara air continues to tap down attributes that favor intensification of these circular patterns.

 

-Rufus

 

 

Copyright © 2017 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®

 


WeatherCafe

08-11-2017 10:21:09

Weather update

Rufus at The Weather Café ® harkens of precipitation this weekend for some parts of the valley. Good news for those long awaiting the pitter-patter of tiny drops. Robin

Friday August 11

 

T  R  O  U  G  H  

 

Yep, we were sick of troughs last winter/spring because of the ‘forever' rains; now we long for Relief from the Heat and smoke - a lovely, beautiful trough!  The pattern ahead will not be a perfect solution, since many will not get enough precipitation this weekend, if at all, to irrigate anything or put a fire out.  However the marine coolness that will work inland, combined with wind to direct the smoke elsewhere, will definitely be a weather spell of relief.  Details?  Mug up, Patron.

 

The much advertised cool-down arrives this weekend, with temps today dropping a little.  We will leave the ‘how much precip’ details to our Nat’l Wx Service teams, but models chart the bulk of the showers to fall from Salem north.  Eastern basins will continue to have thunderstorm or localized cells drop some precip until the trough adds its moisture when it passes over Sunday night.  The onshore flow will cool southern OR, as well.

 

Next week:  gradual warming during the early part of the week, with a weak disturbance possible over NW WA starting late Wed, which right now looks to be a cloud event more than moisture.  That weak disturbance is the lead in, if you will, to the Pre-Eclipse Weekend.  Oh my.

 

Murphy’s Law vs Nature’s Law.  Well now, the epigram about anything that can go wrong, will is timed amazingly well with Nature’s Law of a Solar Eclipse and independently acting weather.  Zillions of words are about to be penned in regards to weather conditions for The Great Eclipse in the PNW.  Around your WxCafe, prognostication was initiated a week ago.  The latest —

 

Pre-Eclipse Weekend:  models have been strangely consistent with presenting a trough and associated RAIN and/or SHOWERS for the PNW during the weekend of Aug 19,20.  Some model runs suggest moderate rain (for August) during the weekend, with a BREAK in the moisture and cloud cover possible on Monday Aug 21.  Hurray!  But wait, other solutions delay the arrival of the precipitation until later on Sunday and into Monday, Eclipse Day.  That would be so unfair, cry all the Viewers (including your host). Seriously, the probability for clouds - enough to shadow the shadow and partially block the direct line-of-sight for Lincoln City to Salem Viewing - is disappointingly high on today’s charts.  Eastern areas of Oregon may have clouds, as well, although viewing from near the eastern slopes of the Cascades should remain fair.

 

Post-Eclipse:  rest of that week, Aug 22-25 will trend warmer, with thunderstorm or shower action possible over SW Oregon and portion of the eastern basins.  There are indications of another notable HEAT UP arriving in time for the start of the Oregon State Fair, Fri Aug 25.  Early yet, but temps will rocket back up into the uncomfortable category during the last weekend of August for the entire western 1/3 of the Nation.

 

Tonight, if smoke clears, look to the N / NE area of the sky for Perseid Meteor Shower action.  It peaks tonight.  

 

2 Week Outlook:  cooler, cloudier, damper than the past several weeks over the coming weekend; turning warmer (80s) next week before precipitation returns (could be more than current weekend) as the Eclipse approaches.   Good news: cumulatively, fire suppressing coolness & shower possible over much of the PNW before Aug 22.  Heat may return by Aug 25.

 

“Statistics, like witnesses, will testify for either side.”

 

-Rufus

 

 

Copyright © 2017 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®

 


WeatherCafe

08-07-2017 10:43:01

Weather update

Rufus at The Weather Café ® is looking for a Guarantee. Me, I'm looking for yet more shade. Robin

Monday August 7

 

Precipitation - when will we get some?  Current outlook suggests that probability is higher now than during the past 50+ days; what about a Guarantee?   Mug up and let’s wander about looking for that Precip Guarantee.

 

This week will be on the warm side, with notably higher humidity.  Smoke from fires will also be in play, although wind direction and the altitude of the smoke should greatly aid in improving air quality vs last week.  Temps in the upper 80s to upper 90s likely, esp in the traditional PNW hot spots.  With Dew Points popping up and mid-level moisture rotating into the PNW from the S, SE, expect thunderstorms to be a factor along mountain slopes and east side.  Fire Teams will continue in August Mode, for sure.

 

Now, that Guarantee search: the up coming weekend will trend a little cooler each day, as a trough of low pressure moves down from the NW.  This pattern has been charting for some time now, so confidence is reasonable as to milder conditions.  Morning marine cloud deck likely, as well, for many west side locations by Sunday or Monday morning, Aug 13,14.  That trough will be close enough by Sunday to introduce SHOWERS across much of western WA, esp north of Seattle.  Unseasonably cool Mon & Tue for much of the PNW.  Back to the trough:  it will may stall out over eastern WA & ID - setting off storm cells, esp for our Patrons in potato & Yellowstone country.  

 

Wed-Sun, Aug 16-20:  whether or not we actually get a dust buster amount of precipitation early in the week, the few days of cooler temps will yield to warmer afternoons to end the week.  Some solutions keep is cloudy &  cool all week; but the trending is for warmer as the week progresses.  Models continue to show another system moving down from the NW as the pre-Eclipse weekend gets underway.  The reason is the Pacific Summer High shifts farther west, opening the door for cooler air to pool and shift SE down along the Alaska Panhandle and BC.    That said, expect clouds to increase sometime on Fri Aug 18, with showers probable during the weekend.  Yes, this could is throw a 'cloud-wrench' into the Viewers View on THE Monday.  

 

Totality Watch:  trending continues to indicated an increased chance for some cloudiness, esp along the coast, early morning Aug 21. There are some solutions that clear those clouds out Sunday afternoon and hold that clearing until Tue.  Please, remember that these are a prog charts we are discussing; putting trust in them may be slightly better than trusting politicians.  

 

Bottom Line:  rather toasty week ahead; cooler weekend with chance for showers dropping over western WA w/o a Guarantee; then mild afternoons and clouds & maybe a few showers just before The Great Eclipse.  Nature reserves the right to refuse cooperation with any weather forecaster.

 

Crickets began their Song of Summer here in Silverton on Aug 5.  Few days earlier in Salem area, per Patron reports.  

 

-Rufus

 

 

Copyright © 2017 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®

 


WeatherCafe

07-31-2017 10:05:36

Weather update

Looks like a little sizzle will be added to our lives this week, Rufus at The Weather Café ® searches for the cool. Robin

Monday July 31

 

Ah, remember the ice, snow, cold, winter 2017?  Yes, many others have called out the same question in contrast to wx conditions we all face this week.  We will seek ice, rather than slip on it this week.  Plenty of Agencies have been posting, speaking, sharing warnings & behavioral cautions concerning the excessive heat coming, and deservedly so.  We are simply not used to triple digits temperatures over such a large geographical area of the PNW.  ‘Nuf said.  What about afterward?  Ice ready.

 

End Point:  the latest runs suggest temps will remain in the high 90s Saturday, and for some, into Sunday before the onshore “fan” turns on high enough to cool west side locations.  A tad longer for the east side.  Thunderstorms and higher humidity probable by next weekend, esp southern OR and east side of the Cascade Range.  This will continue into Mon & Tue, Aug 7,8.  Temperatures will cool down for all areas during the week of Aug 7-11, with morning marine clouds beginning to start the day over interior valleys by late in the week.  

 

Yes, we had expected a trough to get introduced into the wx equation by the middle of next week, with a chance for showers.  Well, need to guess?  That has been delayed or subtracted from the long-range prog charts.  Let’s just go with notably cooler conditions heading into the weekend of Aug 12,13 and the slight chance for showers, esp over the far NW corner of WA by Sunday or Monday, Aug 13,14.   Mild across the PNW for the rest of that week, Tue-Fri, Aug 15-18.

 

Too early for a Great Eclipse wx forecast.  The overall position of the upper-level winds will have impact on the presence and extent of morning cloud cover that day.  (Trend right now: towards cloudiness - but way too far out to confirm).  We’ll begin posting Shadow Wx (Eclipse) frequently, once it comes into view on the charts.  Know that the outlook will have shifts, as is the nature of looking that far ahead.  

 

“Old age is when you get enough exercise just trying to stay out of the way.”

 

Off to making ice,

 

-Rufus

 

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