Hear ye, hear ye! News of the holiday weather predictions from Rufus at the WxCafe® are below. I'm off for some time off with my family. If you need weather updates in the meantime, check the WxCafe® link on Monday's and Fridays. Robin
Friday November 21
Looking ahead for the next few weeks, the wx appears to follow right with the season: cool-to-cold, damp & cloudy, breezy at times, chance to see the sun limited. That's it. Bye bye!
OK. The 'bye bye' is a misdirect, just like a political speak. Nature has her own misdirects. Last update it was the potential for a windy system to power in over the weekend. Well, the RAIN and breezy conditions will prevail, but that second front has all but fizzled into a weak system trailing across north Vancouver Is on Sunday morning. A slight misdirect by the ole' models, but around here, we still pay attention. That said, expect windy weather this evening and lots of rainfall, as the local forecasters have been saying. The steady rain will break into showers later tomorrow and more so for OR patrons by Sunday morning. Basically, nearly constant rain will likely continue north of Everett and for patrons in Abbotsford on through, geez, maybe Wednesday morning. Yikes. The rest of us should DRY OUT, with some foggy bottom mornings, seasonal temps.
For the Thanksgiving holiday period (Nov 26-30): First of all, PNW travel on Wednesday should not pose critical issues for patrons; routes over the passes should be decent for late November. On Thanksgiving Day there are a couple of trending solutions. Both scenarios prog a colder air mass that will again pool north of the WA/BC border, along the northeast side of them there hills. The high pressure dome this time is not progged to build over 1018 mb, so the threat for another shot of cold air remains minimal. The "line of confrontation" between mild and cold air should generally hold along the mountains. Scenario One: south of that line (western WA, OR), the models prog more rain, esp over NW WA, from a surface system that may 'stall out' just of the OR coast, and will draw out some winds from the Fraser Gap / Columbia Gorge (nothing severe, not bitterly cold). Wet on into Black Friday. Patrons in eastern WA, north ID, MT - wet/snowy?; in eastern OR - cloudy, snow or rain showers at worst. Stay with us on this. Scenario Two: cold air as noted, but the low off the coast remains far enough away to keep most of the precipitation out of the forecast for WA, OR, ID, MT, although this prog moves the precip into portions of northern CA north of Pt Conception). This would make a generally dry Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday, with showers returning by Sat/Sun. This may settle out one way or the other by Monday morning coffee. 'Tis the season.
The first week of December remains on the lots of rain and lowering snow level track. Latest runs suggest a strong storm arriving by Thur Dec 4, but that may be another misdirect. Still, wet & blustery, turning colder with snow levels dropping below the pass line.
"Constitutions are checks on the hasty action of the majority" -William Howard Taft
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The English and Spanish versions of this publication is now online. EM 9093, Best Practices for Christmas Tree Export/Buenas Prácticas de Manejo para la Exportación de Árboles de NavidadAuthors: Heather Stoven, Chal Landgren, Rogg Helmuth, LaBonte James and Luisa Santamaria. Print field guide was available in July 2014. To view online in Spanish, copy and paste the following link into a browser, http://pubs.extension.oregonstate.edu/es/em9093
Rufus at the WxCafe® returns the rain to our area and I return to the current infestation of entomologists attending the national meeting of the Entomology Society of America in Portland. Have a great week, All! Robin
Monday November 17
The holiday season is fast approaching, with travel and family gatherings becoming the primary focus. Keep your morning beverage full every Monday and Friday to sip your way through the latest info on just what the weather will be like. Shall we?
Not much change since the last cup. Dry, cold pattern will hold until Wednesday, then the cold air mass will be replaced with pacific storm systems ushering warmer conditions, periods of rain. The first in the series is beginning to form a few hundred miles west of Eureka. Timing on arrival is likely before sunrise Wed morning on the southern OR coast, Medford, Roseburg. Rain will move north from into the Willamette Valley and western WA during the day. Southerly breezes at the surface should provide enough warming to prevent pockets of freezing rain, but that will definitely be something to watch for while heading into work if you live south of Salem. The system is not very strong, so precip east of the Cascades may be limited - although cold enough there to be cautious about freezing precip. Showery and mild on Thur.
As the weekend arrives, the leading edge of the strongest storm of the series is modeled to power its way into the PNW beginning overnight Fri. This storm will have two waves, the first Fri night followed by a second significant low with a decent WIND FIELD Saturday night. In fact, potentially the weekend front could be the strongest pacific system yet this fall, if all things come together. Current progs indicate that a tightly packed center low will track diagonally across Astoria into eastern WA, which would set off strong winds OR. There have been a couple solutions holding the surface low off the coast of OR/WA, which would hold inland winds down considerably. For now, let's just keep ourselves prepared for possible power issues Saturday evening.
Very short break in the action, before another storm tracks over northern Vancouver Island on Monday night or Tuesday. Models indicate this system could pack a notable amount of rainfall, hitting WA first, then dragging across OR. Lingering showers for holiday travel on Wednesday. Right now, Thanksgiving Day is progged to be DRY. However, rain clouds will darken the sky on Black Friday. The second half of the long holiday weekend should present showers and a few sun breaks. Early December? Wet, cool.
"I was in search of a one-armed economist so that the guy could never make a statement and then say, 'On the other hand...'" - Harry Truman
Weather forecasters have more than two arms.
Rufus at the WxCafe® leaves us under the influence of a high pressure ridge. I'll be under the influence of my fellow entomologists this week as 3000+ of them descend on Portland. Just in case I cannot post during that time, check the WxCafe link on Monday for your forecast. Robin
Friday November 14
The PNW will remain under the influence of a high pressure ridge to our east, so expect the cold pattern to hold a few more days. Get under the influence of your second cup of morning wake-up and step up to the virtual WxCafe (TM) counter for more details.
Powerful wind issues this past week, as that cold dome of air arrived with a big blow. Another shot of cold Canadian air is on tap to arrive during the next 36 hours, for more cold air in the east and a return to gusty winds out of the Gaps. This time, though, the wind should not be damaging. The ridge will block pacific storm activity (and warmer wx) through at least mid-week. Freezing rain issues remain a concern south of Salem this morning. Again, dry and cold (frosty in wind sheltered areas) over the weekend into early next week.
Models generally point to a breakdown of the ridge by mid-week. Once that happens, the door will be open for a wet, blustery period of rain & mountain snow. The series of fronts will pack quite a punch, with the first impact of that lineup presenting over the weekend of Nov 22,23. Even California will get in on the precipitation.
Thanksgiving week looks classic: windy, moderate-to-heavy rain at times, snow levels dropping gradually during the week.
Under the influence of family vacation mode here at The WxCafe (TM),
There has been a detection of a new insect pest in Pennsylvania, the spotted lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula. This planthopper is from Asia and has the capacity to be a pest on a range of hosts including grapes, fruit trees, and pines. They can migrate onto Tree of Heaven to overwinter but can be found on other hosts such as grapes, even wood during the winter. There is more information on this new pest at the link. Robin