A near miss for getting a slap of winter, according to Rufus at the WxCafe®. Robin
Friday February 27
The hope & dream for improving the west coast snow pack will have to continue. We will have a near miss on the cold air next week, and thus, associated threat for valley snow & white stuff in the mountains. Get your mug refilled. Here's the latest.
Earlier expectation for a possible 'winter slap' across the PNW is now removed. It will be colder in portions of the eastern basins, but not an Arctic hit. The shift of the blocking ridge west did not develop as much as several model solutions hinted at earlier. Therefore, the coldest shot will move east of the Rockies. It will be frosty, when the cold, NE wind settles down on both sides of the Cascades. First shot arrives later today, with a brisk wind from the north turning on later Saturday. Fraser Gap outflow will be quite windy Fri into Sat. Not super cold. The Second shot (which we thought would have the most impact), will now track farther east, but still enough of a glance to bring brisk conditions after a few showers Mon/Tue. FROSTY overnight everywhere the wind ceases. Temps in the upper 20s; colder to the east. Patrons in eastern ID, MT, WY will get slammed, as will other states as the Arctic Blast moves east. Severe wx is likely along the leading edge of the cold front.
By Monday morning, the upper-air flow will begin to shift back to the northwest, calming the east winds and warming up the region for a day, then the north to northeast cold wind returns for another day, Tue. Unfortunately, it is likely to remain DRY until the weekend of Mar 7,8. Even then, it will not get super wet. Warm front from the SW will usher in some showers, but too warm a system for a decent additional to the snow pack.
For the week of Mar 9-13, expect a wet period, with - hopefully - lowering freezing levels and a decent shot of mountain snow (4,000 ft & higher).
Temperatures could cool down a bit by Thu or Fri, Mar 12,13. The Ides of March looks WET.
For all concerned about the potential winter slap next week and the impact on agriculture, the near miss will be gladly accepted. Still, we will miss the much needed snow in the mountains. A few inches will fall today into Saturday, but not a enough to matter. It will be colder than the past few weeks, east of the Cascades.
"There are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpation. -James Madison
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There may pay a price for this springlike weather warns Rufus at the WxCafe®. Robin
Monday February 23
Enjoy the next few days. Winter is likely to spread our direction soon. Coffee is ready, so let's go.
After a delightful weekend - one that mirrored some of the best spring days - we are heading towards an interesting change in the overall weather pattern. The eastern portion of the US has literally been in the deep freeze for weeks, with more to come. The west has found spring-fever early. Now, it seems, the upper-level pattern will shift, moving the blocking, mild temperature of high pressure (or drought, as noted last week) farther west over the pacific. The result will be for moisture-laden air to ride down along the eastern edge of the pacific high, drawing cold, continental air into the mix to play out across the entire west coast. Several aspects of this pattern are worth noting.
The PNW will be on the edge of a mix of possible wx events. Surface disturbances moving south along the Alaska panhandle/BC coast are to arrive over the next couple of weeks. Chilly rain west of the Cascades and, at times, the potential for snow at the surface is possible. In between systems it could be COLD, icy at night, esp east side of the Cascades. The systems will impact California, as well, with much needed rain & mountain snow. Cold for California too. There is a weak, cut-off low over the southern CA region right now, triggering chilly showers.
First in the series will be a weak cloud/shower producer arriving as early as late Wed, into Thu. Cooler, with lowering snow levels (3K - 4K ft) during the upcoming weekend. Somewhat colder air will fill in behind the front. Frosty Mon morning, Mar 2. The second system rapidly arrives Monday bringing a cold rain to start, and - if models are accurate - a modified Arctic Front on its heals. Rain could turn to SNOW overnight Monday for just about every location. If the snow doesn't hit the ground where you live, it will be close. The key will be position and height of the cold air mass. It will drop in from the Yukon, as we always warn, with a center pressure progged at 1035 - 1040 mb. Various solutions do, indeed, push this cold air right down over the PNW, both sides; some hold to the eastern basins, but strong east winds (you know the drill) will push into western valleys for the coldest wx since December. The cold front will slam into California right after hitting us, with all the usual rain/snow & 'oh my goodness' reaction.
Third system is progged two ways: 1) it arrives following the cold route like the previous two, bringing foothill / coast range snow and cold rain by the weekend of Mar 7,8; or 2) it arrives from a more westerly direction (think warmer), presenting decent rainfall over the lowlands, with snow where it belongs. Turning colder again with lowering snow levels by Tue Mar 11. A large area of cold air could set up afternoon hail activity late week, Mar 12,13.
Broadly, a damp, chilly-to-downright-cold pattern on the way. Mostly rain and mountain snow, with a few surprises possible. Even CA will get in on the action. Concern should be: if the Arctic air has a play early in March, will it get cold enough to damage early bud-swell or bud-break, given the spring-like conditions of the past few weeks. Too much uncertainty as of this posting, but know we will keep close eye on the potential and post as warranted here at The Weather Cafe®
Rufus at the WxCafe® has us chilling down the road. Robin
Friday February 20
General outlook is not too different from our last cup. A few adjustments, but the trend remains toward colder, damper weather to end the month. (Sorry for the travel delay posting.)
Protective ridge of high pressure remains in place, with an adjustment this weekend as a cold Arctic air mass (yes, yet another) descends into the US from Canada. The western edge of the next very large, cold 'dome' will clip the eastern basins of the PNW. The east wind will be turned back on, as the pressure difference east-to-west should shove some colder air through the Fraser & Columbia River Gaps, and a bit over the top of the Cascades. The center of high pressure to the northeast is progged to hit the 1020s to low 1030s mb range, so not an "outbreak" to threaten us with super cold overnight temps. While the coldest in several weeks, it will be short-lived, as dry ridge related warmer temps on tap for most of next week.
By early Friday the 27th, the ridge will breakdown enough to allow in a relatively weak cold to arrive from just off the coast of Vancouver Island. RAIN will begin during the day Friday, with the freezing level dropping by Saturday to set up fresh snow over the higher elevations of the Cascades. Even cooler on Sunday, with snow likely below pass level, and wet . A start. The weekend will be damp and cooler.
After a potentially frosty Monday morning, the week March 2-6 should present another wet system, moving in from a westerly/southwesterly position. So, temps will pop up a bit as the rain arrives. As the week progresses, colder air pooling over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will battle with warmer air to the south, sparking a few stronger storm systems which will move over the PNW & northern California. WINDY and quite WET. Depending on which model solution verifies, it could trend chilly but drier, or wet with the snow level by the end of the week dropping well below the passes. Coastal range, higher hills may get a dusting, esp by Sun Mar 8. It will be blustery & arthritic-joint aching cold. Dig out the winter coats!
As the second week in March gets under way, indications are for a continuance of cold rain at the surface, if not down-right snowy conditions at very low elevations. Lots of precip and added goodness to the snow pack. We can only hope this verifies.
"The best thing to do behind a person's back it to pat it."
Sadly, Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry officials reported on February 18th that emerald ash beetle has been confirmed in Webster Parrish in Louisiana. First detected by a visual survey, immature beetles were collected from trees in a two-acre area. See the link for more details. Robin
We're out of luck on the Friday the 13th if we're hoping for promising signs of drought relief in the short term, based on the future gazing of Rufus at the WxCafe®. I'll be home with the family on Monday so be sure to check the WxCafe® link for an update on that day. Have a great weekend when it comes, All! Robin
Friday February 13
Black Cats & Ladders Day. Good coffee is the vacation-morning focus here in Coos Bay, Oregon.
Excellent weekend ahead for coastal communities, esp on Sunday. An east wind will lend a helping hand to pull back the blanket of fog from interior valleys by Sunday. Temperatures will remain quite mild for February. There really isn't much chance for notable precipitation for the entire west coast until at least Feb 23 (although patrons up in the NW corner of WA could see a shower or two through Saturday).
What's with the 'Ridge of Drought' tag line? Well, a week ago, models consistently pointed to more rain, although cooler, for the PNW, plus a good soaking for much of California. In sharp contrast now, the crystal wx ball indications are that the ridge of high pressure - which has dominated the broad wx pattern across the west - will NOT yield. Meaning, increased probability that both the Golden State & the PNW will be dry, on balance, through the rest of February. Snow pack concerns will not be granted relief. We can only hope this scenario is in error, and the wx models trend back to earlier prognostications.
Details: ridge will strengthen over the weekend, setting up the east wind fog removal program. Temps will bump up into the 60s by early next week. DRY and mild is now progged through the weekend of Feb 21,22. While the dry pattern may hold into the following week, we continue to see indications of a colder air mass clipping the PNW, ushering in cooler temps, but little in the way of moisture. California may get blessed with a wandering low pressure cell bringing some precip to the Southland (LA, San Diego). Don't place bets on that, though. Freezing level will be quite high for February, so even though some morning fog may return by late next week, temps will be in the "melting range" for the snow pack.
Your host will continue to report from the beautiful Oregon Coast (Depot Bay) on Monday. Stay tuned and enjoy your Valentine's Day weekend.
Coffee IS good.