Deja vu? Another arctic blast? Maybe so, according to Rufus® at the WxCafe. Heads up - Special Weather Statement. Robin
Wednesday December 11
Long time patrons know The WxCafe (TM) strives to provide a 'heads-up' whenever nature may bring on weather patterns that can have impact. The current Arctic Event was "seen" early by wx models with a frequency that warranted prognosticating by your WxCafe (TM). "So," you ask, "What's up now?"
Well, for the past couple of days, models have hinted at yet another ARCTIC type wx episode. (Gee, we haven't even cleared out the current cold air yet). If this event takes place, the transition back into the freezer will be Wed or Thur NEXT WEEK. The air will be an Arctic shot & sub-freezing again, and will either last until Sun Dec 22 or beyond. The most recent model run progged wintery conditions all the way through Christmas, with periodic snow showers dropping in from the northwest. Interesting, indeed.
For now, simply be aware of the possibility for another round of cold weather starting later next week. By Friday morning's WxCafe(TM), we will have more definitive information as to whether or not this scenario verifies.
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Rufus at the WxCafe® gives us the low down on the snow down on the valley floor. Robin
Monday December 9
From below zero temps in Eugene (with 8" snow) to 7F here at The WxCafe (TM), it was a bitterly cold weekend. Conditions this morning aren't much better, with single digits up to 16 common around the Willamette Valley. Cloud cover held temps up a bit in western WA (mostly low 20s). So, when will summer arrive?
Here's where the wx models keep pushing back. You'll recall expectations last week were for warmer, wet systems to knock on the freezer door as early as Tues. Well, that has now been pushed back to sometime Thur, or with the latest run, into Fri. Drat. Many of us want warmer temps, as already the heating bill for December will cut into disposable income in January. Anyway, the Arctic event will hold for most - with incremental bumps up in daytime temps - through Wed or Thur at least. There is a chance for FREEZING DRIZZLE or SNOW from Salem north through early Wed, so the slip & slide factor on roadways will really pose a risk. The first afternoon with temps above freezing since last week will likely be Wed for many.
As the precip, if it ever arrives, moves in later this week, the usual icy conditions may come into play near the Fraser and Columbia outflows; a familiar attribute of the transition from freezer to mild.
The weekend will be damp, with temps in the 40s and mostly cloudy. The moderate-to-heavy rain modeled for next week now looks less and less likely. What's happening is that model scenarios place a blocking ridge of high pressure close enough to the PNW to push much of the normal, fall/early winter rains into BC. Some may clip NW WA, portions of NW OR, but right now, every day the models hint of less chance for 'catch up' rainfall. (Yes, that would also mean less mountain snowpack in December.) It's early yet, but we'll make a note on a cafe napkin of a drier cycle becoming possible. Double drat.
That said, here's the rundown for the next 14 days, subject to nature's tweak, of course: snowy or icy conditions early this week, turning warmer, wetter by Friday. Damp weekend, esp Eugene north. Periodic showers, or easy rain in NW WA down to Portland area - on and off - week of Dec 16; drier east side. Split decision on the Dec 19-24 period, as most solutions hint of wet cycle, latest runs point to DRY. As Christmas approaches, look cool, damp, seasonal.
Many folks will find out late this week if their plumbing protection program worked, as the great thaw of December 2013 begins. All the best!
From the school exam answer book: "What happens when your body starts to age? When you get old your organs work less effectively and you become intercontinental."
Yep, less and less. -Rufus
Rufus at the WxCafe® heralds an eventual thaw but not quite yet . . . Robin
Friday December 6
The freezer door will be closed soon. Until then, another, even colder Arctic air mass will arrived over the weekend. Low temperature records tied or broken around the entire west coast yesterday morning (lots of those were established in 1972). More will fall by Monday. Is your hot morning beverage ready? Let's get that door closed.
Spotty light snow falling from Astoria to Portland to Eugene as coffee is poured here at The WxCafe (TM) this morning. Much of the southern Willamette Valley, Medford, northern CA should get notable snow by Saturday. The leading edge of the next Arctic Blast is now pushing south. Fraser Gap outflow picking up again, with gusts in Lynden/Bellingham nearing 40 mph, temps 20-22, dew point minus 1. That defines COLD! As many wx forecasters have noted, mornings lows by Sunday & Monday will crash to some of the coldest temps in many years. Single digit readings probable where snow has fallen in portions of Willamette Valley, etc. Sub-zero temps east of the Cascades will be numerous. The end is in sight.
Warmer, westerly flow will slowly arrive in the Tues night to Thur morning timeframe. As the warm front approaches, our usual pattern of snow turning to freezing rain, then rain will take place. If the overriding precip arrives slow enough, w/o surface breezes from the south, then many west side locations could, indeed, have a round of snow. Freezing rain will also challenge travel until all this melts away. Be alert for the "spotties" - patches of ice on roads that warm up last.
The main feature mid-week will be a return to moderate-to-heavy rainfall (lots of mountain snow, too), esp west of the Cascades. If the models are correct (some have vacilated back 'n forth on a threat for colder air again by Dec 19-22), an extended series of wet systems will stream into the PNW from mid-week on through at least Dec 23. Many will be pleased with that return to our normal, relatively mild rainy weather. Oh, conditions will favor a good snowpack period.
So, the unusually long period of very cold weather will end soon. Patience patrons!
OSU Plant Clinic December Hightlights - Things to look for in December. Robin