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Friday May 18
Another excellent weather weekend on tap for the next 72 hrs. Cooler, damp weather will return and may linger far longer than expected earlier. Lo siento.
By late Sunday afternoon, cool upper level trough begin to arrive to usher in a return to rain, showers, cloudy days and notably cooler temperatures. Early on, it looked as though the pattern would be short-lived, departing by the long holiday weekend. That may not be the case. Models hold a high pressure ridge firmly in place too far to our west to block cooler air from the NW from sagging down across the region. The ole 'dirty ridge' type of scenario. Expect rain to increase on Monday, changing over to showers for Tues & Wed. Could dry out a bit Thursday. On the cool side.
Memorial Day weekend. Could be cool, damp. From looking warm, dry & spectacular a week or so ago, now models bring in another cold system late afternoon Friday to repeat a three day pattern like that which will kickoff next week. Drat. This system could skirt all the way down into California, bringing cooler damp conditions as far south as the Monterey Bay by mid-weekend. True, this pattern has only been in the model's sights for a couple of days, and experienced WxCafe (TM) patrons know models can return to earlier solutions. Let's hope so.
Back and forth solutions for May 29 through June 2. Current indications are for more showery, cool weather before turning dry and warm again by June 3.
Recall that although the La Nina conditions in the central tropical pacific have wained, sea surface temps across the entire northern pacific ocean remain much colder than normal. Therefore, any westerly or NW flow into the PNW will result in showery, cool patterns - much like that modeled for next week and beyond. See chart/explanations in The WxCafe Graffiti Box (TM) for a mug chat refill.
Off to New Orleans on Sunday, so expect slight adjustment as to when the updates will be posted next week. Will make the effort to keep you informed, esp with the holiday coming.
-Rufus
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