Rufus at the WxCafe® limits our dry time - cultivate a liking for wet if you want to be happy. Robin
Friday October 24
There will not be a lot of dry time over the next couple of weeks. And the wind? Well, it will be the main focus of the next two storms, although we may escape broad, damaging impact. So, how's the strength of your morning java?
Saturday & Tuesday are the days that present the potential for strong winds across the PNW. The first storm is beginning to deepen SW of the Oregon coast. The models always struggle with precision when it comes to both the track & actual center pressure of these type of storms, so don't be too critical of all us forecasters as we try to pin the tail on the sky donkey. Current indications are that the center of the low will be oblong in shape (interpret to mean less intense wind field) as it tracks closer to the OR/WA coast; also, that it will not be too deep (interpret barometric center pressure above 990 mb). If the low tracks across western WA, then the Willamette Valley will likely experience wind gust >45 mph; if it tracks into southern BC, the Puget Sound could get wind gust >40 mph. As you can tell, these are not particularly damaging wind speeds, although the foliage on trees will create the sail effect, which coupled with saturated soils, could cause trees/limbs to fall. The second storm, containing the 'wave' remnant of hurricane ANA, will arrive sometime Tuesday. Same outlook as just discussed: uncertainty as to track & depth of center pressure.
The WxCafe (TM) recommends simply being prepared for some power issues at your location, and protecting property from items that could get caught up in a gust of wind. These storms are not super cell events, rather our first potential blows of the season. Oh, and more rain will also be in play.
Earlier it appeared we'd get a break in the precipitation, along with chilly temperatures by the middle of next week. Now it looks like cooler temps (40s - 50s), continued on-off moderate rain & showers, mountain snow teasing skiers for the upcoming season. Halloween will probably be wet, chilly. California, from Pt Conception north, might get some precip around spook night, or a day or so later.
Still searching for a dry day? Try Monday, Oct 27 & Nov 3 and Saturday Nov 8. Yeah right.
"If you refrain from telling lies about the Republican party, I'll promise not to tell the truth about the Democrats." -NY Senator C. Depew, 1920s.
If you refrain from holding me to the accuracy of wx forecasts, I'll promise to keep writing them.
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Rufus at the WxCafe® sent out a head's up (or head's down) about wind in our future. Robin
A ONE TWO PUNCH OF WIND
Two potentially powerful storms are currently modeled to reach the coast of OR and/or WA between Friday night and mid-day Tuesday. These will not be in the super wind storm category (Columbus Day 1962, Nov 13, 1981, Dec 12, 1995 to name a few), however, they could easily generate the strongest wind fields in the past several months. Are you prepared? Here's the latest estimate from your WxCafe (TM).
Storm One: Saturday - a storm that will originally begin to tighten up its barometric center west of northern CA - is progged to deepen notably as it tracks "inside the 130" - the line of longitude just west of the OR/WA coast. Our stronger storms are usually those that track on an approach path to the NE on the east of that "line" of longitude. The isobars (not the ones where weather forecasters go to have a drink) modeled for Storm One are indicated to be tight enough to kick-up powerful winds along the coast, and even inland if all conditions set up just right. The storm center is modeled to come onshore between Astoria and the NW tip of WA with a center pressure in the 984-989 mb range before it fills in and weakens. The pressure difference from the CA border to the central WA coast could be significant.
Storm Two: Tuesday - the remnant of hurricane ANA is modeled to combine with another low pressure cell far to our west, then tighten up considerably as it makes a direct path towards the OR coast inside the 130. As with the first one, there remains a lot of variance as to the final track and barometric solution for the center of the storm. Either way, it is highly likely that the second event will be on par with the first, esp in Oregon.
More over coffee Friday morning. For now, use what may be a relatively dry day on Friday to double check anything outside that can get blown around and strike a structure or vehicle, secure those greenhouse covers, etc. Power outages are probable on Saturday; same goes for Tuesday, esp after all the precipitation ahead of each storm.
Of course, rain will be in play, too. Long-time patrons know that these heads-up special statements are merely to help you prepare - just in case. Keep alert!
Looking to lose a few pounds for the holidays? The Agricultural Waste Pesticide and Container Collection Event can help! You can bring your unwanted and waste agricultural pesticides and pesticide containers on Dec. 6th 8:00am- 2:00pm to Wilco Agronomy Center, 1400 S. HWY 99W in Whiteson, McMinnville, OR 97128. Preregistration is required.
Registration forms are available online at yamhillswcd.org or polkswcd.org or hard copies are available at our office at 2200 SW 2nd St in McMinnville and at the Polk SWCD office at 580 Main St Ste A. More information can be found at the link.
Rufus at the WxCafe® has us jumping puddles. Robin
Monday October 20
Lots of puddle jumping ahead for those daring to venture outdoors. At least the morning java is hot and ready. Are you?
A weak system is pushing across the PNW this morning, with a bit of a break in the steady rain possible now until later Tuesday. You may experience a shower or two, even a rumble of thunder, as well. A much stronger storm will arrive later on Tues, with moderate-to-heavy periods of rain arriving on-off through most of Thurs. Another system will dive further south off the Oregon coast on Friday, then tighten up, barometrically speaking, as it shifts northward along the OR/WA coast. Note: this is a new prog from the models, so if it develops, the potential for powerful winds - esp along the coast - to come into play overnight Fri into Sat morning. Also the storm will send decent rainfall into portions of northern CA.
The weekend looks to present showers after the front on Saturday, then actually yield a decent, mild, mostly dry day on Sunday the 26th. (Are some of you still placing bets?) Now, here's where it gets interesting: models suggest the remnants of hurricane ANA will combine with a storm to its east, resulting in a powerful 978 mb centered storm that could slam into northern Vancouver Island late Monday, Oct 27. This one will return HEAVY rain to the PNW, with a notable wind field. Following the front, the coldest air mass of the season, which will have been drawn down over the eastern Gulf of Alaska, will train into the PNW during the week of Oct 27-31. The result will be slowly diminishing showers throughout the week, with cooler temperatures and risk for FROST overnight late-week, should the sky clear in your area. Oh yeah, snow will arrive in the mountains, mostly above pass level.
As the spooks prepare to seek treats and run from the tricks, a chilly Halloween night should yield up a reasonably pleasant Saturday afternoon to start the new month. Sunday/Monday Nov 2,3 looks wet as modeled today.
Overall, the wettest run of several days in quite some time is on the way. Cooler, fall temps will also arrive later in the forecast period. Hope you were able to take advantage of the extra nice day - Saturday!
"Baseball is different from politics. You're always out in baseball when you get caught stealing."
Rufus at the WxCafe® moistensmuch of our near future. Robin
Friday October 17
Rain has arrive this week as expected, along with a few short breaks in the action. Much more on the way, so fill 'er up and read on.
The fairly even spacing between storm systems remains in play as we move into the second half of October. The storms on the way next week are currently modeled to be a bit closer together, so the week will present fewer breaks in the precipitation (day or night) and greater amounts. The wind will also be stronger, over all, although damaging winds remain off the table.
Late Sunday night, the first front in next week's series arrives. Moderate rain, breezy. Tuesday night the second front storms onshore, with stronger winds, heavier rainfall then the first. In fact, the Wed-Sat period could be one of those periods with little-to-no break at all in the precipitation. Streams/Rivers will be rising.
The weekend of Oct 25,26 - which looked dry in our last post - is now modeled to remain damp, although the heaviest precip should track into the southern OR & northern CA. Models diverge a bit on the solution heading out of the weekend, but still all solutions keep it wet.
Frost watchers should note that we could get our first regional frost night around the 29th or 30th. The last storm in the long series we have been discussing will be the coldest, with snow levels dropping BELOW the passes and colder air filling in behind for a night or two. Note that the next system may arrive so quickly that overnight cloud cover never clears away, holding the temps up above freezing.
As suggested above, another storm from the NW is likely to arrive over the first weekend of November, esp for WA patrons north of Chehalis.
For those that bet on dry days, Sunday the 19 still looks like a safe bet, but the weekend of Oct 25,26 is now wet. Therefore, try placing a bet on a dry Wed Oct 29. The rest of you can simply laugh at our gambling ways!
"I had few really definite ideas, and the reason for this was that, instead of obstinately seeking to control circumstances, I obeyed them, and they forced me to change my mind all the time." -Napoleon July 1816
Maybe Ebola management teams should read this. Just saying.