Late week, conditions will return to a dry pattern holding on through the weekend, under a cool NW flow aloft. This could bring on the FIRST FROST of the season to areas in the eastern basins Sat / Sun mornings. Definitely the coolest nights of the season for all PNW patrons.

Week of Oct 13 - 17 should start out dry, with gradually cooler, more cloudy days, increasing chance for scattered showers. Models hint at a return to steady rain by Oct 18 or 20. Could become one of those patterns with two days wet, two days dry for a week or so the later part of October. Stay tuned.

"Age is a case of mind over matter. If you don't mind then it really doesn't matter."

Heading out to the pool with assorted beverages in hand here in beautiful central Florida, -Rufus

http://www.ovs.com/weather_cafe.htm

While heavy rain and brisk winds are not exceptional for PNW patrons in the fall, the fact that we have not experienced such an intense storm since last winter warrants this special statement. The upcoming series of weather systems will give the PNW a "fall wake-up call"

Model solutions are now suggesting that the second in a series of fronts approaching from the west/southwest will carry quite a punch. WxCafe veterans know that just how close to the coast a storm's center arrives before 'filling in' barometrically is determinate as to potential wind strength. Current runs indicate a barometric center of 975 - 980 mb moving to the east side of 130W longitude, coming onshore in NW Washington or southern tip of Vancouver Is. Earlier solutions pointed to a northern Vanc. Is. spot, with fill-in before arrival. A western WA landfall could bring relatively strong winds inland.

Either way, this system will kick-up the strongest winds since last winter, so patrons need to be prepared, just in case. Estimate on wind gusts: 55 - 75 coast; 35 - 45 inland. Per usual: keep tabs on any Nat'l Wx Service notifications that may be issued. This storm is borderline for power issues, but don't be surprised if there are some localized outages. Food processing crates, bins, etc should be secured; lawn furniture, awnings, etc made wind-ready. A secondary front could kick-up breezes again late Saturday, although not as strong.

Precipitation totals between Thursday and Monday are likely to be measured in INCHES, esp for western Oregon locations. Subtropical moisture from the monster Typhoon Jangmi (winds 155 mph sustained; gust to 190!!) is modeled to carry into the PNW. With the very dry soils, be aware that localized runoff may be elevated during periods of heavy rain.

By early next week, things should calm down, with showery pattern, or even fairly dry for a few days.

[ Note: Your host will shift into R & R mode in Florida Oct 3 - 11. Every effort will be made to get updates posted on the Mon-Fri schedule, but sometimes Internet access is sporadic at the resort. Friday Oct 3 update will be delayed because of travel. ] -Rufus

http://www.ovs.com/weather_cafe.htm

Weak surface action possible on Thursday, with warm front pushing into the PNW. Clouds on the increase; light rain / showers probable by late day. The big "kick-off" to fall will arrive Friday. Models forecast a center low pressure with this VERY STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM of approx 972 mb when it comes onshore mid-Vancouver Island. NOTE: -> This storm has the potential for significant WINDS across the PNW. Given that trees are all still well foliated - mini sails if you will - there could be some POWER ISSUES as limbs break. As always, exact tracking of system is still unknown, so pin-pointing max winds remains uncertain, but it will be strong enough to wake-up the region, no matter where it comes onshore.

As your WxCafe has said earlier, ag folks with tunnel / hoop house systems must be prepared. There is a high likelihood that winds in many locations could exceed that 35 mph critical limit for coverings. BE PREPARED just in case. The storm will usher in HEAVY RAINS for many locations - 1 to 3 inches possible over 48 hrs, as a secondary wave of subtropical moisture should swing in on Saturday behind the winds. Ready?

Calmer, cool showery weather will follow for Sunday / Monday. Models have been inconsistent for next week's outlook. We'll lean toward mild, rather muggy conditions under a southwest flow aloft with increase chance for increasing showers on Tuesday, but iffy. Balance of next week and on into the weekend (Oct 9 - 13) may actually end up pleasant and dry. Return to wet pattern probable around Oct 14th.

Again, everyone get 'wind ready' - secure lawn furniture, awnings, etc. - it was last winter since we've seen wind potential like this storm. The WxCafe will issue a special statement on Wednesday, as warranted.

"No one can build a reputation on what he's going to do tomorrow."

Off to San Jose, -Rufus

http://www.ovs.com/weather_cafe.htm

Update on the Emerald Ash Borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) in Canada - Detection in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. Date posted: 09/22/2008

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has confirmed the presence of the Emerald ash borer (EAB) in the City of Sault Ste. Marie. The infestation is located in a residential area of the city near the intersection of MacDonald Avenue and Pim Street. This is the first find of the pest in northern Ontario.

The Government of Canada is working hard with provinces and municipalities to limit the spread of the emerald ash borer. The CFIA will be carrying out increased surveying of trees in these area to determine the extent of the infestation and affected property owners will be notified. Regulatory measures to control this pest will be taken based on information obtained through the surveys. The CFIA continues to work with its partners and stakeholders toward the goal of slowing the spread of this destructive pest.

Under IPPC Standards (e.g., ISPM No. 8), EAB is considered present (only in some areas of Ontario and 1 area of Quebec) and subject to official control in Canada. For more information on the EAB, please visit the CFIA website at www.inspection.gc.ca.

http://oregonstate.edu/dept/nurspest/emerald_ash_borer.htm

Unlike politics and stock markets, the wx models have settle down a bit the past few days yielding the following solutions. NICE warm weekend ahead (mild nights, too), with a few decent days early next week. A long, extended upper level trough will dig south in the Gulf of Alaska, but quite a distance to the west. This pushes high pressure northward, giving us dry warm wx ahead of the trough moving closer. A wet surface front will likely hit the PNW sometime late Tues or Wed. Strength of the system will be weak, as it will stretch from northern Calif to B.C.

A second, MUCH STRONGER STORM is modeled for Fri / Sat. -> Depending on model solution, we could see rather high winds with the Oct 3 storm. Update on this Monday, but ag folks with tunnel/hoop coverings take note!! Center of storm could measure in the mid 980s, so winds will really kick-up. WET system, as well, with cold air support.

Here's where the potential for a 3rd storm is this series is questionable. We may see a return to mild, dry wx around Oct 5 or 6, with basically dry conditions holding for a week or so. BUT, some solutions indicate another rather windy, wet system slamming into PNW around Oct 8 or 9. Afterward, dry wx should return for 4 - 6 days. Wx geek ponder point: one interesting 'driver' of the weather is the upper level 'jet stream' - which models continue to show remaining in an unusual 'parallel-to-latitude' pattern (Pelosi likes latitude) around the globe during the extended-range outlook. This translates into a fairly stable wx pattern for temperate zones. Does this mean a mild fall for the PNW and U.S. ?? Keep those morning beverages ready.

-> Viti Vantage: many in the wine industry are concerned about the wet cycle coming. Yes, wettest period in quite awhile, yet it does look to be rather short-lived. Some may 'pick ahead' of the first wet cycle, then take their chances on the third storm not arriving. Cumulative amount of precip should be anywhere from 3/4 - 2 inches, depending on location. Check in Monday for latest outlook.

First chance for frost, esp east side, may come Oct 10 - 12.

Politician's creed: "It's not a lie. It is a gift for fiction" Back from Chicago, -Rufus

http://www.ovs.com/weather_cafe.htm