I get back just in time for things to stand still. Rufus at the WxCafe cooks up a "stationary" forecast. Robin
Monday July 28
As the month nears an end, the wx pattern will remain rather stationary. In fact, you could use your own stationary to write family & friends about Oregon sunshine and it will be here when they arrive. Well, maybe.
The high pressure ridge is in favorable position to maintain a repetitive warm-to-hot afternoon pattern for the next couple of weeks. There will be increased thunderstorm potential over the Cascades and portions of the eastern WA, OR areas as the end of this week nears. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side, as noted. Expect afternoons to top out in the upper 80s to mid-90s in many locations; the usual hot spots will tease triple digits, especially the next 3 days. Coastal zones may have a brief morning cloud deck. By the coming weekend, humidity may jump to a notable level, as a southern flow aloft increases. So too will the risk for thunderstorm activity (and fire risk) over the higher terrain.
In general, though, absolutely great summer conditions for just about everyone from now through August 7. Yes, a tad too warm for blueberries, but it beats the rain of last week!
Continued indication for a cooler, stronger marine push of 'air conditioning' by August 7 or 8, as a weak trough approaches from the NW. No frontal precipitation is expected, along coastal drizzle will be likely. Cooler, mild conditions should hold from Aug 8 until the 15th.
"Money can't buy happiness, but it helps you be unhappy in comfort."
Heading to the heat of Chico this week, -Rufus
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We will have a demonstration of the Smart Sprayer that is part of the research of a multi-state team from the USDA/ARS Application Technology Research Unit in Ohio, Ohio State University, Oregon State University, and the University of Tennessee to evaluate the use of intelligent spray systems in nursery production. The demonstrations will give people a chance to see how these sprayers "sense" the targeted plants and turn on or off spray nozzles based on that information.
We will hold a demonstration on Thursday, Aug. 14 starting at 10 am at Hans Nelson and Sons Nursery in Boring, Oregon. There will be field demonstrations and a short intro to several spray application technology applications developed by the USDA/ARS Application Technology Research Unit in Ohio. Both events are free and open to the public.
I hope you will take the opportunity to see this sprayer in action. Smart sprayers have the potential to greatly reduce the volume of pesticides applied to crops while maintaining the same level of pest control. More information about the Smart Sprayer Demonstration is at link. Robin
Rufus at the WxCafe® calls it the "Noisy Toaster", that combination of humidity and thunderstorms, with heat inserted, that will come our way. Grease on the sunscreen, quench before you thirst, and dream of your favorite oasis. Robin
Phriday July 11
Yes, the title is a bit corny for a forecast, but hey, it's descriptive of what the next few days will be like, esp in Oregon. Fill 'er up and read on.
The peak of this current summer heat wave will likely occur on Monday/Tuesday, although it will be quite hot between now and then. We all know that it is not typical for the west side of the Cascades to experience a heat wave of duration longer than 3 days. The current forecast will be an exception. The other attribute of this event over the weekend will be higher HUMIDITY and THUNDERSTORMS, both sides of the Cascades. While this whole pattern is now modeled to start a couple days earlier than our last update, so too will the relief package. Here are the details.
Models bring up moisture-rich mid-level air from the south starting today on into Sunday evening. This will trigger muggy conditions at the surface and the potential for thunderstorm activity over a large area of the PNW. Patrons in Oregon on both sides of the Cascades will be in the noisy-zone of storm cells. As the Nat'l Wx Service scientists are noting, a few of these cells could develop into rather intense storms, with localized gusty winds & hail. Friday evening and Sunday are the periods of the most likely activity. For patrons in WA state, most of the activity, should it develop, will remain along eastern slopes of Cascades, more in the southern zone than north.
Coupled with the humid conditions will be heat. Temperatures will climb into the 90s for just about all areas, a few temps teasing the triple digit mark on Sunday. While the thunderstorm activity will diminish by Monday, the heat wave will actually intensify, given the position of the high pressure ridge and drier air moving in following the noisy weekend. Monday & Tuesday will nail temps in the upper 90s to lower 100s across the entire PNW, even up into southern BC. Berry growers will be glad that harvest started on the early side this year, as the conditions will not be on the favorable side. Lo siento.
Relief on the way next Thursday. Upper level trough modeled to spin in from the NW, increasing the marine push of cooler, air-conditioning. This will bring the region back down to seasonal norms for the weekend of July 19,20. Boomers & showers possible over NE Washington moving out of BC into the eastern basin and slopes of the northern WA Cascades on the 19th. What about Wednesday July 16? Well, right now, it should not be as toasty as the previous two days. Still, it may go into the books as the 6th consecutive day of temps above 90 for many locations.
Warming up a bit Mon-Sat July 21-26, but not nearly as hot as our current event. Seasonal norms, in fact.
"A fine quotation is a diamond on the finger of a man of wit, and a pebble in the hand of a fool." -Joseph Roux (Hey, I like this guy!)
Do you want to save money, reduce pesticide use, and improve the results of pesticide applications? Come to the Covering Your Assets workshop on Wednesday, August 13, from 3:00 pm until 9:00 pm at Hans Nelson Nursery in Boring, Oregon. This hands-on workshop on Sprayer Calibration and Application Assessment will help you learn what you need to know about sprayer care, manual and electronic calibration, optimizing application for improved control and reduced spray drift, and techniques to evaluate applications.
Cost for the workshop is only $20 and includes dinner with registration!
Don’t miss this opportunity! Check the link for more information and registration materials for the workshop. Robin
This workshop is presented by Oregon State University, The Ohio State University, and USDA/ARS with additional support of the Clackamas Basin Pesticide Stewardship Partnership.
Some like it hot. They will be happy with the forecast from Rufus at the WxCafe®. Robin
Monday July 7
Warm week to start, with a couple of days mid-week that will be cooler. Then, model solutions have changed direction toward a pattern that has the potential to kick-up some heat issues. Ice Tea time for the ole coffee mug.
Barometric ridging over the area will favor another couple of rather warm days for much of the PNW. The NW corner of WA, Vancouver Is., escaped the mild heat experienced in Oregon after the 4th. Marine influence will be getting more action as the week unfolds, because the high pressure ridge offshore will spin off cooling, onshore breezes, so everyone will feel a bit more comfortable under cooler conditions. Wednesday may bring on some thunderstorms over our eastern basin patrons, and those in ID, MT.
Now, let's review the potential for the first significant HEAT WAVE of the season. Recall that one of the predominant definitions of a heat wave is 3 consecutive days of temps 90 or above in the shade. The favorable 'center position' of the high pressure ridge just west of the coast is now being progged by the wx models to shift farther west & north over the Gulf of Alaska. If that verifies, temperatures will rocket up into the miserable 'heat wave' level by next week. The shift west will diminish the onshore air conditioning, opening the door for a notable run of hot days. Current progs are suggesting that this pattern will develop starting Sunday the 13th. Yes, as always, there are some model runs holding all this heat at bay - keeping the pattern of next week in place, for seasonal to slightly warmer temps. But, the heat wave potential is worthy of mention, as ag interest will need to seriously consider 'watering up' before transpiration rates jump; so, too, will homeowners about to head out on vacation.
SO, how hot? Triple digits probable in southern OR, even up into the Willamette Valley; mid-90s in the Puget Sound - even upper 90s teasing 100-102 by July 18-19. The key point, should this pattern develop, is that for the entire week of July 14-18, temperatures may top out above 90 degrees in nearly all the PNW. Relief in the heat wave should arrive by the 20th. Still dry and warm, just a return to some onshore air conditioning, esp west of the Cascades during July 20-25.
Heading to Lynden for most of the week, -Rufus