Rufus at the WxCafe® has us jumping puddles. Robin
Monday October 20
Lots of puddle jumping ahead for those daring to venture outdoors. At least the morning java is hot and ready. Are you?
A weak system is pushing across the PNW this morning, with a bit of a break in the steady rain possible now until later Tuesday. You may experience a shower or two, even a rumble of thunder, as well. A much stronger storm will arrive later on Tues, with moderate-to-heavy periods of rain arriving on-off through most of Thurs. Another system will dive further south off the Oregon coast on Friday, then tighten up, barometrically speaking, as it shifts northward along the OR/WA coast. Note: this is a new prog from the models, so if it develops, the potential for powerful winds - esp along the coast - to come into play overnight Fri into Sat morning. Also the storm will send decent rainfall into portions of northern CA.
The weekend looks to present showers after the front on Saturday, then actually yield a decent, mild, mostly dry day on Sunday the 26th. (Are some of you still placing bets?) Now, here's where it gets interesting: models suggest the remnants of hurricane ANA will combine with a storm to its east, resulting in a powerful 978 mb centered storm that could slam into northern Vancouver Island late Monday, Oct 27. This one will return HEAVY rain to the PNW, with a notable wind field. Following the front, the coldest air mass of the season, which will have been drawn down over the eastern Gulf of Alaska, will train into the PNW during the week of Oct 27-31. The result will be slowly diminishing showers throughout the week, with cooler temperatures and risk for FROST overnight late-week, should the sky clear in your area. Oh yeah, snow will arrive in the mountains, mostly above pass level.
As the spooks prepare to seek treats and run from the tricks, a chilly Halloween night should yield up a reasonably pleasant Saturday afternoon to start the new month. Sunday/Monday Nov 2,3 looks wet as modeled today.
Overall, the wettest run of several days in quite some time is on the way. Cooler, fall temps will also arrive later in the forecast period. Hope you were able to take advantage of the extra nice day - Saturday!
"Baseball is different from politics. You're always out in baseball when you get caught stealing."
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Rufus at the WxCafe® moistensmuch of our near future. Robin
Friday October 17
Rain has arrive this week as expected, along with a few short breaks in the action. Much more on the way, so fill 'er up and read on.
The fairly even spacing between storm systems remains in play as we move into the second half of October. The storms on the way next week are currently modeled to be a bit closer together, so the week will present fewer breaks in the precipitation (day or night) and greater amounts. The wind will also be stronger, over all, although damaging winds remain off the table.
Late Sunday night, the first front in next week's series arrives. Moderate rain, breezy. Tuesday night the second front storms onshore, with stronger winds, heavier rainfall then the first. In fact, the Wed-Sat period could be one of those periods with little-to-no break at all in the precipitation. Streams/Rivers will be rising.
The weekend of Oct 25,26 - which looked dry in our last post - is now modeled to remain damp, although the heaviest precip should track into the southern OR & northern CA. Models diverge a bit on the solution heading out of the weekend, but still all solutions keep it wet.
Frost watchers should note that we could get our first regional frost night around the 29th or 30th. The last storm in the long series we have been discussing will be the coldest, with snow levels dropping BELOW the passes and colder air filling in behind for a night or two. Note that the next system may arrive so quickly that overnight cloud cover never clears away, holding the temps up above freezing.
As suggested above, another storm from the NW is likely to arrive over the first weekend of November, esp for WA patrons north of Chehalis.
For those that bet on dry days, Sunday the 19 still looks like a safe bet, but the weekend of Oct 25,26 is now wet. Therefore, try placing a bet on a dry Wed Oct 29. The rest of you can simply laugh at our gambling ways!
"I had few really definite ideas, and the reason for this was that, instead of obstinately seeking to control circumstances, I obeyed them, and they forced me to change my mind all the time." -Napoleon July 1816
Maybe Ebola management teams should read this. Just saying.
Feeling the pressure? Trying to go cold turkey on the use of neonicotinoid insecticides? Come to our next OktoberPest workshop, Insect Management in a Post Neonic World, on Thursday, Oct. 23, from 9 am until noon at the North Willamette Research and Extension Center. During this session we will discuss conventional, “soft” chemistry, and augmented biological alternatives to neonicotinoid insecticides for sucking insects, thrips, beetles, and other key pests.
Always a bargain at $25 for the workshop. Three pesticide recertification credit hours are available. For more information on the workshop check the link. Robin
Rufus at the WxCafe® plays the numbers with only 4 mostly dry days showing up in his game. Get it done if you can before the deluge. Robin
Monday October 13
Today: Columbus Day in the US, Thanksgiving Day in Canada, and one of the few mostly dry days left over the next couple of weeks. Java ready, so here's the latest.
Much needed rainfall about to push onshore across the entire region, including portions of northern California this week. All your local wx geeks have noted the wet cycle of which we are about to partake. Key issue will be getting that last round of nut/grape harvest completed in between the frontal passages. Were one to bet on numbers, try these: 13, 19, 25, 26. Those are the days that should be mostly DRY around the PNW through October 27. Soils will not dry down much. Models are doing their usual dance of inconsistency, although there has been enough commonality on the dance floor to establish a long-awaited rain cycle. Timing & intensity of the storms is the main uncertainty.
The primary steady rain fronts that we expect are scheduled to arrive approximately 2 - 3 days apart, starting tonight on through the 28th. In between systems will be showers, some of which could be rather intense (thunder) under cold air aloft (mountain snow, above pass level). Yes, also expected will be the few dry days, as noted above. Long-time patrons of The WxCafe (TM) know that often frontal passage patterns shift 12-24 hrs either way, so keep that awareness and place your bets carefully.
WIND: most of the storms will generate windy conditions (20-30 mph), with no major, broad-area damaging winds anticipated. Coastal zones and various areas east of the Cascades will get clipped at times with 45-60 mph gusts, but western inland hoop/tunnel greenhouses should not be at risk (<35 mph), as of today's prog. Falling leaves & resulting clogged storm drains could contribute to localized minor flooding issues. As noted last Friday, the evenly spaced frontal passages should provide reasonable time for streams/rivers to handle runoff. Still, keep alert if you happen to be in a flood prone area.
TEMPS: generally cooler, fall-like thermometer readings will prevail. On/off high elevation mountain snowfall is probable. Right now, there are no indications of any hard frosts in the lowlands between systems.
California: Most areas north of Pt. Conception should get decent rainfall at times over the forecast period. The later storms in the cycle may develop into heavy rain producers for San Francisco / Sacramento areas north.
"The trouble with some men of few words is they use them over and over again."
Heading to south-central Kentucky this week.
Rufus at the WxCafe® predicts puddles ahead. Robin
Friday October 10
An extended period of blustery rain and cool, fall temperatures remains the key wx event to anticipate. Quick, get your morning beverage charged up and set back down here for a rundown of what to expect.
The Special Statement published on Wednesday remains fairly accurate as of this morning. Biggest change is that the first strong system discussed has been delayed approx. 24 hrs. Reports are that Vice Pres. Biden stopped out over the eastern Pacific for a political visit and that held up the storm. (Sorry, couldn't resist!) Anyway, a weak disturbance will glance the region overnight into Saturday, for a few showers around the area, esp north of Olympia. Instead of a damp Sunday, brief ridging of high pressure will yield a surprisingly delightful afternoon to end the weekend. Advantage patron! Get that yard & gutter work done, lawn furniture put away, nut harvest, grape harvest, etc. tasked for completion. Although we may also gain additional dry hours Monday morning (Oregon patrons mostly), the rain will arrive later in the day/evening. Northwest WA / Vancouver Is. will get it first, then the rest of us.
Rain will slack off later Tuesday, but enough cold air aloft to keep showers around just about everywhere. Cooler! Another STRONGER storm will deepen as it nears the Oregon coast early Thursday. This one could present a powerful WIND FIELD, as the center is modeled to peg down to 976-978 mb as it tracks to northern Vancouver Is. Thur night. Heavy rain will be associated with this storm, as well.
Conditions will settle down by Sunday, Oct 19, but it will still random showers could be in play east of the Cascades.
The atmospheric wave that is currently Super Typhoon VONGFONG, which will severely pound Japan, will eventually set up the next PNW storm that arrives on Monday the 20th. While most of the heavy rainfall from this storm will track into California & southern Oregon, it will be wet for all. Another wet system rides in directly behind the typhoon remnant for continuous rainfall over western WA through the week of Oct 20-24. The rest of us will not escape the dampness, just not as wet.
Bottom line: Lots of puddles ahead. Our normal wet, breezy October weather will begin soon. The flood issue should not be dismissed, although the spacing of the heaviest rainfall should allow for good drainage. That said, it will be prudent for patrons in the northwest area of WA to remain alert to localized flooding later in the forecast period. It will be wet more days than dry from the 13th through at least the 25th. Be prepared.
California patrons will also be receiving much needed precipitation. Mostly in areas north of Pt. Conception / Monterey Bay, and esp from the VONGFONG birthed storm.