Got snow? Not much of a snow pack and you'll still be waiting for that needed snow, according to Rufus at the WxCafe. I'm headed up to the Green Industry Conference in Washington. Looking forward to seeing some of my Washington subscribers. Have a nice weekend all! Robin
Friday January 23
Good morning patron! Thanks for setting down at The WxCafe (TM) for the latest update. Not a whole lot of change since the last cup, but enough to warrant mention.
The system today is a bit stronger than expected in the 'total precip' department, although the track of the system remains consistent: most of the rain will drop over Washington, Vancouver Is., scattered showers east into northern ID. A decent soaking, west side. Unfortunately, there won't be much snow in the mountains given the warm origin of the air aloft, reflecting on our 'need' around the west coast for a better snow pack. By Sunday, the rain will diminish over WA, with OR remaining dry.
Dry next week. A high pressure dome will be centered over ID & UT, which could aid in limiting valley fog given an offshore component to movement of mid-level air. This will also contribute to unseasonably WARM temperatures across the entire region. Warmer weather may push bud-swell on many crops, a development, if it develops, that could set up a potential for crop damage should a cold snap nail the area in February. History illustrates that possibility. Anyway, back to next week: a very weak surface disturbance could usher in clouds and a few warm showers on Tue/Wed, but a jump right back into DRY highly probable for the remainder of the week.
That wet Super Bowl weekend we spoke of earlier is now modeled to be DRY & mild until late Sunday. Bitterly COLD Arctic air mass will begin slamming into must of the eastern half of the nation later next week, making news for sure, and tormenting travels in the big cities of the Atlantic seaboard. Your host will be right dab in the middle of the event - Ohio - starting Super Bowl Sunday.
There are a few storms that will return RAIN to the PNW as February gets under way. The 'in need' tag line, posted in regards to a snow pack, will continue as these systems may be wet, but not cold. Their origins will be from the S to SW. High freezing level type systems. Drat. That said, anticipate on & off rain, from late Super Bowl Sunday Feb 1 through at least Sun Feb 8. Or so it shows today on the crystal ball.
"When two egotists meet it's a case of an I for an I."
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Want a little good news to start the year? Information today from APHIS-PPQ about the eradication of red palm weevil from California. Robin
January 20, 2015
Subject: Red Palm Weevil (Rhynchophorus ferrugineus) Eradicated from California
To: State and Territory Agricultural Regulatory Officials
Effective January 18, 2015, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is declaring eradication of red palm weevil (RPW)from the Laguna Beach area of Orange County, California.
On October 15, 2010, APHIS confirmed the first U.S. detection of this pest in a Canary Island date palm tree stump in a residential area of Laguna Beach, California. A local arborist reported the find, which was determined to be a dead adult RPW. APHIS, Orange County, and the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) initiated delimitation and visual surveys around the detection site and conducted targeted surveys in nearby nurseries.
APHIS worked closely with CDFA, Orange County, University of California Cooperative Extension, homeowners, local community officials, and arborists to remove several damaged palms and expand the surveys to nearby areas. APHIS provided technical expertise and coordinated outreach and support for the local community to eliminate this pest.
In accordance with European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization international standards, a three-year period free from any RPW detections is necessary to declare this area free from this pest. APHIS has met this standard as the last confirmed detection of RPW occurred on January 18, 2012.
RPW is one of three giant palm weevils of the genus Rhynchophorus that are native to Southeast Asia and known to occur in Africa, Europe, Oceania, North America, and the Caribbean. Giant palm weevils are a major economic pest of palms, including coconut, date, oil, and sago palms, though their host range can also include Arecaceae, Poeceae, and Agavaceae.
For additional information on RPW, you may call APHIS National Emergency Response Coordinator Eileen Smith at 301-851-2155.
Osama A. El-Lissy
Plant Protection and Quarantine
It has been a bit quiet on this end. My winter vacation in the Cascades turned into the flu with a view. I'm working to get back to full steam but wish all my subscribers a Happy and healthy New Year. Below you'll find the foggy forecast from Rufus at the WxCafe®. Robin
Monday January 19
The extended outlook for many patrons across much of the PNW can be spelled with three letters: DRY. FOG. For Twelve'ers it is WIN. WON. For the morning beverage, it is MUG. Got yours?
Wet, stormy weekend is yielding to a foggy morning week. Not much chance for precip all week except maybe, just maybe, a glancing shower or two over the far NW corner of the region in the Thu-Sat period. Not much wind to move the air around at the surface, so other than near the Columbia River Gorge outflow area (east Portland), lots of fog will settle in. Stagnant air watches may get posted by late week, esp in Medford, south Willamette Valley. Blah wx, actually. For patrons in NW WA, Vancouver Is., the shower threat should be gone by late Saturday. Expect Sunday to be dry.
Dry weather, with foggy bottoms galore, appears likely through much of the last week in January. The return of a wet period is now pushed back until Fri Jan 30. Models present a SW flow aloft moving into the PNW late Thur night, the 29th, with rain developing over CA, then moving into OR & WA hours later. Super Bowl weekend will be WET, with the number 12 showing up in more places as the weekend nears. Showers should prevail on Game Day, after a very wet Saturday. Much like the past weekend.
Now, early Feb has been progged both ways: dry, foggy; or quite chilly, wet with lots of mountain snow. The key issue is whether or not that pesky blocking ridge of high pressure re-establishes itself. Let's hope not, as the entire west coast needs a decent snow pack for summer water needs.
"A politician's words reveal less about what he thinks about his subject than what he thinks about his audience." - George Will, 1975
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A whole lotta rain followed by cold, according to Rufus at the WxCafe. I'm off with the family a bit and remind folks that you can generally find alerts from Rufus at the link on Mondays and Fridays with the occasional special notice in between. Keep safe and have a happy holiday. Robin
Friday December 19 << Yellow Alert for Flood Potential >> Too bad the last big weekend before Christmas will be trumped by a major rain event. Let's get right to it. The Joy of the Season will need to shine bright over the weekend, because dark clouds & buckets of rain are on tap. Portions of the west slopes of the Cascades could receive 4-8 inches in 24 hrs or less. Snow level will rise, so all the precip will rush downstream to a low spot near you. Be alert if your abode is near flood-prone waterways. Wind will be noticed, too, although not expected to hit dangerous levels like several days ago. It will begin to dry down by Monday afternoon. Rather mild temps, too. The next interesting system arrives on Christmas Eve. Models have played the usual "not all together" tune, but at least there is consistency in a wet, cool storm moving in as the holiday arrives. SNOW levels will most definitely drop as cold, dry air sweeps in behind the system on Christmas Day. If enough moisture remains, it may be cold enough for snow showers -- and smiles of Holiday Cheer -- for some white flakes at the surface, esp north of Salem/Olympia. Ground will be too warm for sticking stuff. Again, a very long shot, but not impossible this year. Skiers will delight in some fresh snow at the resorts, making up some of the melt from this weekend. Here's the other twisted Frosty the Snowman, after Christmas, some model runs have repeatedly progged for an Arctic Blast to move into the lower 48. We may be included, esp by the first few days of January. Depending on which model prog one adheres to, cold air blasting out of the Fraser & Columbia Gaps may start up - for the 3rd time this fall - between Dec 28 and Jan 1. Last night, one solution pointed to a notable snow event as the year ends. Sip on that one. Around our coffee mugs, we don't ignore these extended-range progs, as they do verify at times. Know that your WxCafe (TM) staff will be tipping some egg nog and keeping a smiling eye on the Wx outlook as the holiday gets going and Santa drops by for a cookie. Generally, it will be mostly dry and chilly the week after Christmas, turning either very COLD or back to rain by the New Year. There may be rain/snow mix showers around the 27-28th. You should be prepared for an Arctic event, just in case (meaning, you are not home and freeze protection readiness is needed before you go). Stop by again on Monday. -Rufus
Rufus at the WxCafe® grants us a preview of damp, cold weather.
Monday December 15
Another stretch of damp days ahead before a dry but potentially cold pattern arrives. Quite seasonal, actually. Shall we peek ahead?
California will receive the bulk of the rain/mountain snow during the first half of the week. Then, it's our turn. Kind of a back-to-back system will bring two rounds of rain to the entire state of California. Having personally experienced the monsoonal downpours in the state last week, it can be said that drought relief will be the biggest blessing this holiday season for the Golden State. Hollywood has its own problems.
In the PNW, it will be on-off showery type weather until mid-week. Some mountain snow. Thursday looks to be the driest day before another organized system arrives overnight Thur into Fri morning. This is not a strong storm, as the barometric center will be way up there south of Kodiak Island. However, colder air behind to storm will bring more snow to the Cascades. A stronger system will push into NW WA/Vancouver Is by Saturday evening. This one will kick-up some wind, esp over the Puget Sound. Short periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall are likely across the PNW late weekend.
All indications are for a rapidly moving storm to arrive on Christmas Eve. Cold air behind this one will drop snow level below the passes. In fact, some solutions have progged snow down to 1,500. Interesting. The key is that the system is modeled to be the last rain/snow producer for up to a week. High pressure ridge over Canada is on tap to deepen and drop south into the lower 48. Some runs hint at a clipper of modified Arctic air slipping into the eastern basins of the PNW, for the you-know-what cold wind situation. Right now, it does appear that an Arctic event will remain out of the picture, at least until the last few days of 2014. We'll watch this closely.
Just before New Year's Day, we do have the potential for very cold weather arriving, yet again, to start 2015. Between Christmas and New Year's, expect dry, chilly conditions, with areas of FOG. An inversion layer may set up post-Christmas. Skiers will drive up &out of the fog bank, to enjoy the little snow that fell just before Santa arrived.
Summary: damp, wet period between now and Christmas, with a dry day here & there. Turning chilly or even COLD after Christmas, but remaining dry.
"If you want to get along with people, pretend not to know whatever they tell you."
Lacking knowledge in all things, -Rufus
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