A whole lotta rain followed by cold, according to Rufus at the WxCafe. I'm off with the family a bit and remind folks that you can generally find alerts from Rufus at the link on Mondays and Fridays with the occasional special notice in between. Keep safe and have a happy holiday. Robin
Friday December 19 << Yellow Alert for Flood Potential >> Too bad the last big weekend before Christmas will be trumped by a major rain event. Let's get right to it. The Joy of the Season will need to shine bright over the weekend, because dark clouds & buckets of rain are on tap. Portions of the west slopes of the Cascades could receive 4-8 inches in 24 hrs or less. Snow level will rise, so all the precip will rush downstream to a low spot near you. Be alert if your abode is near flood-prone waterways. Wind will be noticed, too, although not expected to hit dangerous levels like several days ago. It will begin to dry down by Monday afternoon. Rather mild temps, too. The next interesting system arrives on Christmas Eve. Models have played the usual "not all together" tune, but at least there is consistency in a wet, cool storm moving in as the holiday arrives. SNOW levels will most definitely drop as cold, dry air sweeps in behind the system on Christmas Day. If enough moisture remains, it may be cold enough for snow showers -- and smiles of Holiday Cheer -- for some white flakes at the surface, esp north of Salem/Olympia. Ground will be too warm for sticking stuff. Again, a very long shot, but not impossible this year. Skiers will delight in some fresh snow at the resorts, making up some of the melt from this weekend. Here's the other twisted Frosty the Snowman, after Christmas, some model runs have repeatedly progged for an Arctic Blast to move into the lower 48. We may be included, esp by the first few days of January. Depending on which model prog one adheres to, cold air blasting out of the Fraser & Columbia Gaps may start up - for the 3rd time this fall - between Dec 28 and Jan 1. Last night, one solution pointed to a notable snow event as the year ends. Sip on that one. Around our coffee mugs, we don't ignore these extended-range progs, as they do verify at times. Know that your WxCafe (TM) staff will be tipping some egg nog and keeping a smiling eye on the Wx outlook as the holiday gets going and Santa drops by for a cookie. Generally, it will be mostly dry and chilly the week after Christmas, turning either very COLD or back to rain by the New Year. There may be rain/snow mix showers around the 27-28th. You should be prepared for an Arctic event, just in case (meaning, you are not home and freeze protection readiness is needed before you go). Stop by again on Monday. -Rufus
Rufus at the WxCafe® grants us a preview of damp, cold weather.
Monday December 15
Another stretch of damp days ahead before a dry but potentially cold pattern arrives. Quite seasonal, actually. Shall we peek ahead?
California will receive the bulk of the rain/mountain snow during the first half of the week. Then, it's our turn. Kind of a back-to-back system will bring two rounds of rain to the entire state of California. Having personally experienced the monsoonal downpours in the state last week, it can be said that drought relief will be the biggest blessing this holiday season for the Golden State. Hollywood has its own problems.
In the PNW, it will be on-off showery type weather until mid-week. Some mountain snow. Thursday looks to be the driest day before another organized system arrives overnight Thur into Fri morning. This is not a strong storm, as the barometric center will be way up there south of Kodiak Island. However, colder air behind to storm will bring more snow to the Cascades. A stronger system will push into NW WA/Vancouver Is by Saturday evening. This one will kick-up some wind, esp over the Puget Sound. Short periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall are likely across the PNW late weekend.
All indications are for a rapidly moving storm to arrive on Christmas Eve. Cold air behind this one will drop snow level below the passes. In fact, some solutions have progged snow down to 1,500. Interesting. The key is that the system is modeled to be the last rain/snow producer for up to a week. High pressure ridge over Canada is on tap to deepen and drop south into the lower 48. Some runs hint at a clipper of modified Arctic air slipping into the eastern basins of the PNW, for the you-know-what cold wind situation. Right now, it does appear that an Arctic event will remain out of the picture, at least until the last few days of 2014. We'll watch this closely.
Just before New Year's Day, we do have the potential for very cold weather arriving, yet again, to start 2015. Between Christmas and New Year's, expect dry, chilly conditions, with areas of FOG. An inversion layer may set up post-Christmas. Skiers will drive up &out of the fog bank, to enjoy the little snow that fell just before Santa arrived.
Summary: damp, wet period between now and Christmas, with a dry day here & there. Turning chilly or even COLD after Christmas, but remaining dry.
"If you want to get along with people, pretend not to know whatever they tell you."
Lacking knowledge in all things, -Rufus
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Rufus at the WxCafe has sent out a special weather statement. Robin
Oregon Wind Event? Special Statement Potential for very strong, damaging WINDS Thursday morning if recent model solutions are accurate. Deep low center (973-984 mob) is progged to move north inside the 130W line and come onshore as it "fills" somewhere north of Astoria. If this storm develops as modeled, wind gusts at the coast likely to exceed 85-100 mph; inland across the Willamette Valley gusts higher than 60 mph are possible. Power outages and numerous falling trees will be the rule. Be prepared, just in case. This is short notice because the event has only recently been verifying on the computers. Again, a potentially serious wind event may develop early Thursday over western Oregon. Please keep alert to Nat'l Wx Service notices. -Rufus
Rain + wind = the forecast according to Rufus at the WxCafe®. 'Bout sums it up for the upcoming week. Robin
Monday December 8
The sound of rain will be dominant over the next couple of weeks. True, a break of a day or two may be thrown in between systems to ensure all is not lost. Sounds like the coffee is ready, as well. Shall we?
A rather decent December weekend is now past. Back to the scramble of work, shopping, finishing school and all the joys of the holiday season. The series of storms we have been rambling on about for the past week is about to take center stage. Early in the period, the heaviest rain will storm into NW WA, Vancouver Is, as will the wind. Later this week, the pattern will shift south, sending steady rain into OR and, indeed, all of California (more on that coming up). Rather then trying to tie down precise timing of the systems, just be aware that several deep-centered storms are lining up back stage and are set for arrival at approx 24-36 hour spacing.
Why? A large, very cold upper-level trough of low pressure is now set up over the Gulf of Alaska. Atmospheric waves traveling the margin between of cold/warm cells of air will move rapidly from east of Japan & the Sea of Okhotsk (best to pronounce with food in your mouth) to the west coast of North America. The 'pacific beltway' that we mumbled about last week. Some surface centers, esp early in the period, will power into N Vancouver Is or Haida Gwaii - the Queen Charlotte Islands, kicking up wind over western WA and the OR coast. By Friday, the surface centers will storm right into S Oregon, bringing strong WIND to northern CA and precip to the entire west coast. Not to belabor the 'why' part of all the action, but the pattern is classic for December, and as such, it is reasonable to expect overall snow levels to begin dropping steadily over the next couple of weeks. Skiers are even waxing their morning beverage mugs in anticipation.
A couple model runs hint at the longest break between storms occurring the weekend before Christmas - good news for everyone's buzzing around. However, it is worth noting, that some solutions keep the rainfall coming in, with lower snow levels. In fact, hints are for the 'jet stream' to shift and favor the coldest series of storms arriving into the PNW just before Christmas, teasing the entire region with the white stuff above 1,500 ft. Oh the wonder.
Summary: lots of rain, periods of moderate-to-strong winds for the next 14 days. Lots of rain on tap for California. In fact, three systems are likely to bring notable rain to the entire state, starting this coming Thursday.
"Imagination is what makes you think you're having a wonderful time when you are only spending money."
Enjoy the sound of rain & the Ho Ho Ho of this joyous season.
Rufus at the WxCafe foretells of hydration in our future. Robin
Greetings Patrons. A period of seemingly unending pacific storm activity is nearing. The upper level winds are progged to stream almost directly into the PNW starting late this weekend. That translates into splash & blow for the entire west coast. Refill your morning beverage.
The Interim: Cold air remains trapped in the eastern basins, so some patrons on that side of the Cascades are likely to experience pockets of freezing rain during the next couple of days. For the rest of us, the weak front moving over the region today will have passed by sometime mid-day Saturday. Expect a short dry break until early Sunday. Temps will be mild west side; remain cold east as we need wind to scour out the low level cold air. While we are between systems, FOG could be serious overnight Saturday & Sunday morning.
The Action: The series of powerful pacific storms are already in the works to our west. As noted, the 'jet stream' will set up in a straight line pattern, streaming across the pacific and right over the PNW. A pacific beltway. There will be small atmospheric wiggles in the directing winds, but overall, expect the resulting surface action to be intense and consistent for the next couple of weeks. The storms are modeled to be spaced about 24-36 hrs apart.
For the first half of next week, the main area of heavy rain/wind will be Vancouver Island & the north half of western WA. California will also get in on the moderate rainfall, as the storm pattern will split energy just west of Oregon. By mid-week, the split will weaken and the focus of energy will be targeted at Oregon & northern California. Not much recovery time for soils & watersheds, however, because of the 'wiggles' in the jet stream, the heavy rain will shift around, helping mitigate flood issues. That said, the entire series will be quite wet, so keep alert if you are located in a flood-prone area.
The weekend of Dec 13,14 looks VERY WET and stormy. One difference could be lower freezing levels, which will help begin the Holiday Blanket of snow for ski resorts. Let's hope so.
Week of Dec 15 is expected to present lots of RAIN and WIND. The PNW may end up on the colder side of the pattern, since California will continue to receive rain. Again, this would favor snow at the ski resorts.
Generally, on-off rain, sometimes quite heavy, is on tap for Dec 7 through at least Dec 21. While it is not possible to pin-point the location for each storm center as it moves onshore, some of the systems will be structured with deep center pressures, meaning WIND FIELDS could approach damaging levels. This will be monitored by your WxCafe (TM).
Package Peek: The wx pattern we have been previewing may very well continue right on through the week of Christmas. Stormy, chilly, mountain snow, rain at the surface, windy. Too early for white Christmas speculation, but snow levels should be low enough for resort fun.
"The older I get, the faster I was." -Charles Barkley
It will be a pleasure meeting some patrons at the annual Seed League Conference in Salem on Monday.