Dust off the umbrellas, according to Rufus at the WxCafe. Robin
Friday September 19
Travel related delay in posting update, but all is well, as is the morning beverage. Still have some left?
Another warm-to-hot weekend in store, as expected. The turn for fall may, indeed, take place next week. We will experience lots of sunshine & an offshore flow during the weekend. Patrons in NW WA, Abbotsford, Vancouver Is will have a weak disturbance causing clouds and maybe a shower over 24 hrs, before return to sunshine. A weak system on Monday will turn the winds around, for onshore, cooler temps & even coastal drizzle as the new week begins.
The big change, relative to the seemingly forever storm-free zone of late, will come mid-week. Models have tightened up their progs for a consistent call for our first "true" storm of the season. This event will mark a possible shift in the overall pattern - the proverbial opening door - as the bottom third of September passes. A powerful storm currently NW of Japan will spin off a wave that models to cross the pacific and impact us next week. So, expect increasing clouds ahead of steady RAIN by as early as Tuesday night along the coast, then inland by Wed morning. WIND will also kick-up. The storm should be large enough to impact not only OR, WA, BC but also drought stricken northern California as the week ends. A secondary wave should form to add more steady rain Thursday, turning to showers on Friday. Breezy at times throughout the period. Right now, no concern about winds exceeding 35 mph (except along coastal headlands) so hoops/tunnel greenhouse systems should be OK.
Damp wx will likely hold on into next weekend, especially if models are correct, and a second storm centers on Vancouver Is - moderate rain possible north of Olympia overnight Saturday into Sunday; showers likely as far south as Eugene, as well. Patrons on the east side of the Cascades are also in for dampness, so be aware.
The outlook splits as the month of October begins. There have been solutions pointing to continued series of damp wx fronts, others simply dry us out and hold the next rainy period off until about Oct 4-6. We'll see. Point here today is get out that dusty umbrella and be prepared for any outdoor activities from Wednesday through Sunday to be wet at times. Yep, fall weather.
Your WxCafe would also like to point out that hurricane activity may pick up in the Gulf of Mexico, or at least tropical storm action that will spin the media into a frenzy. IF verified, there could be a significant storm impacting the Gulf coast states in the Oct 3-5 period. Coffee chat for now, but worth noting.
We've confirmed the line-up for our 2014 OktoberPest Workshop Series. We're excited about the new three-part Pesticide Applicatiors Training Series in Spanish as well as two workshops to help growers design pest management programs which include insectary plants and reduce the reliance on neonicotinoid insecticides. See the link for more information on our workshops and registration information. Robin
OSU to interview nursery research candidates- Sept. 23-25
Members of the nursery community are invited to meet the three finalists for Oregon State University’s Nursery Production Research and Extension Position. The meetings with each candidate will be held at the North Willamette Research and Extension Center (NWREC) over three days as follows:
• Tuesday, September 23 — Amanda Bayer
• Wednesday, September 24 — Alison O’Connor
• Thursday, September 25 — Matthew Chappell
Beginning at 10 a.m., each candidate will give an Extension presentation that will focus on some aspect of nursery production based on their expertise, such as automation, irrigation of container grown material, or nutrition management of field grown material. This will be followed by an open discussion at 11 a.m.
All growers are encouraged to attend. All meetings will be held in the large conference room at NWREC, 15210 NE Miley Road, Aurora, Oregon. For details, call Shelley Hughes, 971-533-8614.
Rufus at the WxCafe® only slightly interrupts the dry spell. Robin
Sunday September 14
Another early morning flight to Ohio tomorrow, so this forecast will be constructed using Sunday model runs. Actually, the outlook has not changed much since you last brought your mug into The WxCafe (TM).
A low spinning up from the SW will usher in the potential for clouds and even a stray thunderstorm, esp along the Cascades Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will cool down by Wednesday, with scattered showers not out of the picture for most west side locations through Thursday. Patrons on Vancouver Island & north of Everett may also get a second chance for showers, and extended cooler temps, during the weekend of Sept 20,21. The rest of the PNW will be dry, warm.
The week of Sept 22 should also continue the dry spell. Temps will pop up again into the almost hot category for much of the week. As we noted on Friday, there may be another chance for rain, even blustery winds in places, over the last weekend of the month. However, the way the pattern has held over the past several weeks, that rain may just drop off the forecast table leaving weather geeks with a blank stare.
Short discussion, but all that's needed at this time. Pick those grapes!
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Keep the umbrella's furled as the sun keeps shining for us based on the cast from Rufus at the WxCafe. Robin
Friday September 12
Finally back from snowy Calgary and into warmer conditions. As we look ahead to a successful grape harvest, both wine & concord, many are anticipating when our seasonal falls rainy period will begin. Ah, morning beverage pondering.
Pleasant, warm weekend ahead. The Mt Angel O'Fest will continue under perfect conditions, esp with the strong east winds subsiding. BTW, those winds were in association with pressure differences setup by the cold air mass that slammed Calgary and now torments portions of the Rocky Mtn states. As we enter next week, the wx will remain dry and warm through mid-week.
Our 'it's going to get wet, no it's not' model inconsistency continues. For several runs now, indications are for a weak system to spin into the PNW from the SW by Wednesday evening, Sept 17. It could track more into CA, leaving Portland, north dry, or it could track up across the region ushering some showers for a couple of days for everyone. This feature may end up being a cloud event, more than that of rain. After that, dry again by the weekend of Sept 20,21. We should also mention that models hint of two systems moving into north Vancouver Is on Saturday, and again Monday, which would then bring a few showers north of Everett, rain to our island patrons.
Oh, the pacific hurricane ODILE will track close enough to Baja to set up another round of high surf in southern California at the same time we may get those showers next week. The 5th named Atlantic tropical storm of the season, EDOUARD, will not pose a threat to the eastern seaboard aside from a few waves.
After a mild, warm weekend mentioned above, the last week of Sept will start out dry and under the protection of the east side of a continental high pressure ridge centered over the Rockies. By the end of the week, that slow approach to fall may speed up, with a rainy weekend in store during the last weekend of Sept. Don't place bets yet.
From the past, "A folk singer is a guy who sings through the nose by ear."