Rufus at the WxCafe calls it decent. I'd go for more hyperbole, and say gorgeous week ahead. Robin
Monday March 10
Brief, pre-Kansas update: decent run of dry days ahead, mild and warm this week. St. Patty's Day may be transition to cooler wx, with risk for sub-freezing overnight temps as Spring begins.
Details: dry Tue thru early Friday. Then, weak system may clip the NW corner of WA & OR with a short shot of showers Friday afternoon. The coming weekend looks mild and dry, before a shift towards colder temps, chilly rain begins after the Leprehchuns arrive next Monday. The wx models have been inconsistent (their norm, of late) on the extended outlook. Still, it does look notably colder, with snow the level below the passes and high probability for overnight frost, if the sky clears in your location in the March 20-26 period. Some solutions bring a glancing shot of cold showers on St. Patrick's Day, but that is iffy. All runs do indicate cooler, damp pattern starting by the 20th. How cold and how long is the iffy part.
Over the past 24 hrs, fewer model scenarios are showing a cold Yukon component, but it was consistently showing up for over 7 days, hence we must keep the possibility in the discussion. We often get cold showers in March, with some small hail and frosty temps east side, so should this develop later in the month, no big surprise. It will be more noticable, given the mild temps in the preceeding period. We will get some dry days in the later part of this cycle, so frost is the concern.
California looks to return to dry until later in the month.
Heading to Mahattan, Kansas, then San Jose this week. Fasten the seat belt. Zoom zoom.
Rufus at the WxCafe® ushers in a Spring forecast, giving us one more and maybe even one more again. So it goes. Robin
Friday March 7
Subject got you curious? Well, One More storm is ticketed to slam into the PNW and northern California before the weekend is over. Oh, and then One More? Load up your morning mug & get right back here before running off to work.
Today and most of Saturday still on tap to be pleasant, esp in regards to mild temps. The amount of hoped for sunshine on Saturday might be pushed out by the early arrival of clouds from an extensive warm front moving in a few hours earlier than anticipated last Monday. Saturday night through mid-day Monday will be dripping wet. Turning cooler early next week, but dry.
Some model scenarios suggest a very weak 'cut off' surface low moving in Thur/Fri next week for chance of showers. Whether or not this develops, it will turn dry and mild again quickly, setting up another pleasant run of dry, warm afternoons, the Ides of March weekend.
Now, the other 'One More': long-time Weather Cafe (R) patrons know to take this with their morning beverage as coffee chat material, but for the past few days, model solutions have progged for a cold - for late March! - winter-like weather cycle to arrive right on time for the official start of Spring 2014. Nature could very well present an "oh yeah, watch this" reminder of winter. Yep, a colder air mass may work its way down along the coast of BC/Alaska, with Yukon air support provided by the 'jet stream', setting the stage for a brisk, stormy, 'what in the world' late March winter slap to the PNW. We could have very low snow levels, thunderstorms, ice pellets, and FROSTY mornings as we exit the event. A few runs indicate the transition could start as the Green Beer runs out on the 17th, or later that week. Either way, expect the mild, spring-like conditions proceeding St Patty's Day to yield to cooler, wet or even wintery conditions. Risk for FROST may be the issue for agriculture. This will also set the stage for another major winter event across the Nation, including tornado activity in the deep south. Again, this is only a possibility, but worthy of mention.
So, we are on tap for additional rain, mountain snow, then overall dry period from Tue March 11 thru Mon March 17. After that, cooler, maybe even much colder, wet weather for a week or so.
Given lots of mid-terms completed recently, here's a real answer from a school exam: "What was the largest threat to world peace in the 1980s? Heavy metal, because it was very loud."
Disturbing Climate Peace here at The WxCafe (TM) center, -Rufus
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Rufus at the WxCafe hands us a seasonal mix with wet, wind, and few days of delightful dry. Robin
Monday March 3
Seasonal March weather ahead, with a few dry days scattered among the wet. Mild temperatures will dominate the next couple of weeks, although periods of snow in the mountains will continue to benefit the snowpack. Got your morning beverage? Let's start the week.
Of the next 15 days, the next four days should be the longest stretch without a break from the drips. WIND ALERT: Within that wet package, a strong surface system will tighten up and slam onshore Wednesday evening. A couple model solutions set up a 16-20 mb difference in surface pressure from Crescent City CA to Long Beach WA, which would really kick-up a wind event, esp along the coast. Keep a flashlight handy.
By Thur night, things calm down, dry out, and lead into a fine day on Saturday. Get 'er done that day, because your Sunday morning coffee will be enjoyed with rain falling outside. Nice weather will be paired Friday & Saturday. The consistency of the weather pattern will firm up heading into the week of March 10, so expect a couple wet days, with a few dry days to be had mid-week. Mild.
The Ides of March looks to be a mix of sun & showers; St Patrick's Day looks wet, cool. Northern Cal will get some precip early this week, and most likely a couple more times before the middle of March. All and all, not a bad outlook for the entire west coast.
Yep, our fellow citizens to the east will be tormented with continued slaps of cold temps & snow. The Great Lakes Ice Extent is nearing 90%, which has only happened twice in the last 40 years: 94.7% & 90.7% in 1979 & 1994, respectively. The images are impressive, so web-search for some.
"Diplomacy and defense are not substitutes for one another. Either alone would fail." -John F. Kennedy
Rufus at the WxCafe® offers up a potpourri of weather for the start of March. Is that a whiff of Spring around the corner? Robin
Friday February 28
Month two of twenty fourteen done. It was a month of added snowpack, rainfall and some low level snow surprises. March will start out with a chance for snow yet again in the Bellingham/Lynden area, Hood River area, portions of the eastern basins, then turn seasonal with pleasant breaks and, of course, more rain.
Complicated pattern developing over the next 3 days. Cold Arctic air mass nudging its way south out of Canada into the USA will, indeed, clip the PNW. The dome is not quite as deep as last week's event, so the impact will be more limited in duration, although definitely winter-like for patrons east of the Cascades, NW WA, and the usual Columbia River outflow area. Southern California will be hammered by a powerful pacific storm, with multiple inches of rainfall, strong thunderstorms, mudslides, funnel clouds, you name it. It is the Cal storm that will help set the scene for OR, WA, ID, BC.
The battle of cold vs warm air mass will be targeting the PNW, with the Cascades functioning as the referee holding the two apart. As you aware, the outflow zones a la Fraser & Columbia gaps will be allowing cold air to seep westward. Snow and freezing rain will be a part of the scene, esp Sat/Sun (maybe into early Mon in Lynden/Abbotsford). Will Seattle, or Salem get snow? The extent and amount of snow will depend on how much cold air sneaks by the referee. Let's just prog that patrons in Hood River, east and Bellingham, north are likely to get a slap of winter once again; snow or freezing rain anywhere else west side is less probable. By Monday, a warm air mass will nudge in fast, turning the precip all to rain, with milder temperatures heading into the new week for all. Still, it is a bit unusual for the PNW to get this kind of winter nudge the first couple days of March. Keep your mug full.
The balance of next week will be quite wet, esp early on, as a westerly flow aloft shapes the wx pattern. Calif will dry out in the south, but northern Cal will likely receive additional rainfall by Thurs. Conditions for all dry down by Friday. Ready for a couple of spectacular days?
Friday & Saturday, March 7,8 are on tap to be superp! Spring-like conditions, sunny, WARM, light breezes. Short-lived delight, as more rain, cloudy conditions return for Sunday through Friday, March 9-14. Models do throw in a dry day or two; yep, typical March weather as surface systems stream across the pacific for periodic arrival in the PNW. The eastern half of the nation will continue to be pounded by Arctic air supported winter weather. Relief may be in sight for the second half of March. Coffee bets anyone?
"A pessimist expects nothing on a silver platter except tarnish."
Could you use a shot right now? Rufus at the WxCafe mentions that a shot of arctic air this weekend might be possible. Heads up! Robin
Dear WxCafe (TM) Patron:
SPECIAL STATEMENTAnother shot of Arctic air possible this weekend.
Areas east of of the Cascades and the typically vulnerable locations impacted by Fraser & Columbia River outflows are likely to get SNOW and strong WINDS this weekend. The pattern may last into early next week. REPEAT snow event for patrons in Bellingham/Lynden looking more and more probable. Strong wind event possible in NW WA & Columbia Gorge. Portland, north Willamette Valley, SW WA may also get in on the action this time around. Update here on Friday.
Nat'l Wx Service teams are keeping a good eye on this event, as well. Heed their watches/warnings as the weekend approaches.