Head's up! Rufus at the WxCafe sent out two weather messages yesterday evening. I lead with the Special Statement which indicates potentially hazardous weather conditions coming for Tuesday. I hope all of my friends and family back in Oregon will be safe as the storms come through. Robin
Sunday November 15
The wind potential for Tuesday across western WA, particularly the Puget Sound region, warrants a SPECIAL STATEMENT. The barometric pressure difference - as noted in The Weather Cafe ® discussion posted earlier - could reach 20 mb between Salem & Abbotsford. This translates into surface wind gusts exceeding 65-70 mph. Should this occur, there will be serious issues with falling trees, given the saturated soils. Also, some roof structures may be damaged with gust over 65 mph.
Power outages are probable across a large swath of western WA. PLEASE be prepared. For patrons on wells, remember to fill the bathtub as a water source to flush the toilet(s).
Again, dangerous wind potential coming Tuesday, Nov 17. Keep alert, be safe if driving.
Weather around the region will be chilly and damp at times for another several hours. Monday night & Tuesday, a 'double low' will track onshore north of Vancouver Is., setting up a very WINDY, stormy 24 hours. The barometric pressure difference between Salem OR and Abbotsford BC could reach 20-24 mb on Tuesday. If this verifies, southerly WIND will really blast a path across the Puget Sound. Hang on. That said, expect the week ahead to be wet and blustery, with snow in the mountains. Calming down by Friday.
The weekend of Nov 21,22 now has the dry trend leading in the model solutions. It will be greatly appreciated as everyone begins the sprint to the Thanksgiving holiday. While a few model runs hint at a wet system for the PNW on Saturday or Sunday, with cold air trailing down behind from the north, the trend for several days now continues to point to a DRY & relatively weekend. Patrons will recall that there has been an unusually long stretch of model uncertainty concerning conditions for the coming weekend. The WxCafe™ will lean towards the drier solution, with the coldest air remaining out of play for a few more days.
Nearly every model run points to a COLD system dropping down the BC coast on Tue Nov 24 turning conditions quite chilly & blustery for a couple of days. The snow level will drop notably behind the front. As Thanksgiving approaches some model solutions prog a surprisingly cold Thanksgiving holiday; other runs keep the region under a traditional westerly flow aloft, for seasonal temps and chance for showers early, then rain on Black Friday.
Rain should return, along with warmer conditions, by Monday Nov 30. We'll see.
Off to Alabama & Kentucky this week. Our weekend storm, which also brought decent rain and snow to California, will turn up quite a powerful mix of news-making weather across the nation this week. Hope to get home on time Thursday.
"Timely disbursements to prepare for danger frequently prevent much greater disbursements to repel it." -George Washington, 1796
Pull out the rain gear, as Rufus at the WxCafe® shifts the rain to the south for another round. I'll soon be hopping a plane for a big meeting of four scientific societies in Minneapolis. I'll be following that trip with home leave with the family the following week. Remember you can find the WxCafe® forecasts at the link on Monday and Fridays while I'm away. Stay safe, All! Robin
Friday the 13th
Black cats are hiding from the rain, so they're not likely to run under any ladders. Besides, all the ladders blew over. The next in our much anticipated Fall Classic storms has arrived. Reports of up to 10 inches of rain has drenched portions of the Olympic Range in WA. What's next?
The saga continues for western WA today. Rain will diminish somewhat over WA and increase over NW OR later today while another system is developing SW of the Oregon coast. Models have toyed with this one for days, with the key feature being a rapidly deepening, relatively small scale low pressure center moving 'inside the 130' (degree longitude line) by late Saturday night. Net effect is to pull warm air up into our region as the system begins to move onshore and shift the heaviest rain south of NW WA. Depending on location of that center, and its barometric depth, more WIND is likely along with another shot of moderate-to-heavy rainfall. Oregon is likely to get more precip from this system than the current one. It will cool back down rapidly after frontal passage.
By Sunday afternoon into Monday, the coldest air of the fall season will be well established over the PNW. Showers - some intense - along with snow down below pass levels. Jacket weather. The leading edge of the cold air will track additional moisture deep into CA, including mountain snow.
Weather for the week Nov 16 - 20 has not been as well defined by the models. The strong Tue storm is now progged to move onshore farther north into the Alaskan panhandle, given the PNW a bit of a break from the heavy rainfall. That's not to say it will be dry. Washington will get most of the rain, which could still tease out localized flood issues, esp in the Olympic range and northern Cascade watersheds. Keep alert to Nat'l Wx Service watches; they are attentive about this.
Late Wed into Thu colder air from the north may push into the region, with a cold front ahead adding to our rain gauge totals. As the weekend of Nov 21,22 arrives, we still lack a consistent forecast from the wx models: it could be relatively mild & wet, with a storm moving in from the west; or it could be colder with a frosty morning on Fri or Sat, if the sky clears and quite cold in ID, MT, WY. The split decision remains in the model outlook, so we'll just place a hold card on that outlook for now.
Thanksgiving week: stormy in the heartland, so travel plans could be impacted. The PNW may get more rain early, with colder conditions moving in from the north; mountain snow. A few outlier solutions bring very cold Yukon air into the eastern basins - interesting should this verify. Cold rain at the surface, snow dusting the foothills near you. CA gets rain; we get the chills. We'll keep a close eye on this here at The WxCafe™.
"The market will always do whatever it has to do to embarrass the maximum number of people." -Michael Murphy 1991
Some would add that the weather does the same to forecasters.
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It is time to chill, according to Rufus at the WxCafe®. Robin
Sunday November 8
Chilly start to a wet week ahead, so keep that morning beverage hot. No dramatic changes from earlier outlook discussions, except for the timing of the upcoming storms and a lesser chance for flooding.
The weekend cold front has moved into California and will then generate quite a Rocky Mountain storm system by mid-week before making news in Chicago. Another cold front will bring a return to rain for the PNW, starting in WA first. Cold air aloft, so decent shot of snowfall on tap for the Cascades.
The center low of our Friday the 13th storm is now progged to move onshore much farther north, but still, this system will pack quite a heavy rain field. Windy, too, although not as strong as original expectations. Western WA will get the most impact from the storm. Brief interlude during the weekend before the second strong storm arrives overnight Sunday. HEAVY rain in western WA, with OR also getting moderate rain, as well. Breezy. The second storm will track into CA, for much needed rain (another change from earlier forecasts). Chilly and damp in the PNW Tue/Wed Nov 17,18 with plenty of mountain snowfall. More rain with the third system due in Thu. Models toy with placement, but enough energy will move onshore for moderate-to-heavy rain over western WA, winds, and general wet fall conditions for all.
Uncertainty remains for the weekend of Nov 21,22. The trend has been for drier days, but with the potential for a northerly flow aloft to usher in the colder air mass of the season, esp over eastern basins. We'll see.
Easy to get an overall picture of the next couple of weeks: on and off rain, with great mountain snow. Borderline concern remains for localized flooding - mainly for the coastal streams/rivers in western WA. Even CA will get in on some of the precipitation.
First cave man to 2nd cave man: "I don't care what you say. We never had such unusual weather before they started using bows and arrows."
Heading to New Orleans,
Rufus® at the WxCafe suggests the tempest is on the way. Robin
Friday November 6
After a calm, mild week the PNW is set for a significant round of Fall Classics. Stormy weather is on the way, so refill your morning beverage mug and sit back down here for the latest details.
A few hours of sunshine added brilliance to fall colors as the month of November got underway this week. The weekend ahead will turn notably chilly by Sunday with the coldest air mass of the season setting up camp for a few days. Expect 1/2" - 1" of rain early on, followed by colder, intense showery conditions Sunday and Monday. Mountain snow will drop below pass level, as well. Welcome to November. Next week will present a short break in the rain, with chance for frost Tue morning, should sky clear over you. By Wed, another system will pop down from the coast of BC for a quick addition to the rain gauge. Next will come Friday the 13th.
A series of powerful storms continues to be on the charts starting Fri the 13th. Hours of moderate-to-heavy rain, along with gusty WINDS will dominate next weekend. The action will start first over Vancouver Is, hit western WA and then into OR. Although missed on a few of the charts, most of the model runs prog a 'double shot' - on the back of Friday's storm - arriving Sunday to continue the deluge & wind event into Mon, Nov 16. In our earlier discussion, we noted a third storm arriving Tue, compounding the heavy rain event. The latest solutions delay this action - thankfully for flooding concerns - until Tue night, with WA getting hit first, then OR. This storm will extend the rain event into late Thu or Fri, ending the 7 day string of back-to-back storms over the PNW.
Second Sip: the models have varied as to which state will collectively get the heaviest rainfall throughout the period. It would be best to advise all patrons to prep for an extended heavy rainfall event. The drifting north & south of the primary 'jet stream' which drives the heaviest rain band will be a blessing, since it allows rivers & streams a short 12-24 hour break. Still, we haven't seen this much precip within a 7 day period in a long time. There will be plenty of leaves to plug storm drains, super-saturated soils and, potentially, strong winds. All that will be noticed.
California will get in on the action when this weekend's storm drops down into the Bay Area, and east toward Sacramento on Sunday night. The big event the following weekend of Nov 14,15 should remain over the PNW and not provide much needed rain in the Golden State. For travelers heading east the week of Nov 16, our major PNW storm event will translate across the U.S., setting up what could potentially be a severe wx event for the eastern half of the nation. Primarily a WIND event, along with possible tornado action in the SE; air travel could be impacted.
The weekend of Nov 21,22 has been progged both wet or dry. By then, a rain check on the rain will be appreciated, so let's hope the trend holds for a dry spell. Update on that as we head farther into November. Keep your mug handy.
Special note: the Oregon State Beekeepers Association has invited your host to open their annual conference tonight with a presentation. It will be an honor to speak before nearly 300 folks that know how to manage a buzz!
"No man is good enough to govern another man, without that other's consent." -Abraham Lincoln, 1854
Early departure for New Orleans on Monday, so update will be posted here Sunday evening. See ya!
Rufus at the WxCafe® portends the upcoming weather in bold and caps. Head's up. Robin
Monday November 2
Interesting weather month ahead, should we accept the wx model crystal ball view. The accepted morning beverage is ready here. Shall we?
California is getting much needed rain from the leading edge of our Halloween weekend storm. The system dumped an amazing volume of water in a short period in many areas of the PNW, causing localized flooding including INSIDE a Portland light-rail train. For most of the days this week in the PNW, showers will pop up here and there, although diminishing on a daily basis. There remains the potential for FROST in your area, should the sky clear overnight Tue or Wed.
The next onshore move of moisture is possible early Thu, with a westerly flow aloft kicking back in. This could end up being a cloudy warm front that lacks rain. However, there is enough risk for showers to play the precip card here. What will follow over a week long period has the potential for making all of us "remember the dry daze" of summer. Let's peak ahead on this stormy November period.
With some variation between model solutions since last week, a consistent trend carries through: LOTS OF RAIN and mountain SNOW is coming. In fact, flood issues may very well be a key attribute of the upcoming wx pattern. The door opens this coming weekend. The WET system following behind Thursday's 'maybe rain' disturbance will arrive by Fri night. Colder air behind the storm will usher in a good amount of snowfall in the mountains, along with rain & progressively heavier showers in the lowlands on both sides of the Cascades. This is modeled for late Fri on through Monday night, Nov 9. Southern and eastern OR could be slow to experience this particular storm serious, but by Sunday, everyone should be in on the action. Current charts do NOT indicate the weekend storm to be as wet as our Halloween Day storm.
Next will be a stronger front, timed to drop down from the NW Tue/Wed Nov 10,11. WINDY with heavy rain. A lot more SNOW in the mountains. It will turn notably colder at the surface for everyone. By Friday the 13th, a strong, windy, VERY WET "double punch" storm surge will arrive. With moisture training (or being 'fetched' by the upper-level winds) from Japan all the way across the pacific directly into the PNW, moderate-to-heavy rain bands will repeatedly slam into the region. The winds will be moderately strong, as well. Depending on which model run we accept, winds could approach damaging levels Sat/Sun, Nov 14,15 esp given what will be saturated soils by that time. The WxCafe™ will monitor this closely.
Although there will be periods of cold air support for mountain snow, some of these fronts will have enough warm air ahead and during passage, that, when combined with multiple days of heavy rainfall, impact flooding could be a major story in the PNW. This could be one of those combined wx events, if models are correct, that makes book (think November 2006). Start planning.
California will not get much precipitation out of this series of storms, although models do drop the Nov 14,15 storm into the Golden State, by Mon Nov 16 (like today's event).
"One of the surest marks of good character is the ability to accept personal criticism without feeling malice toward the one who gives it."
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