Designing And Operating Fish And Wildlife Programs In An Environment Of Uncertainty
By Myron B. Katz, Patricia Koss, Jennifer Shawcross
ABSTRACT
Abstract. This paper explores the policy efforts dealing with the problem of declining Pacific Northwest fish runs. Results have
been disappointing. Decades of expensive efforts costing billion of dollars have been relatively ineffective in increasing salmon
runs. Many species of wild fish continue to decline or remain significantly below target levels of recovery. The issue of scientific
and economic uncertainties is examined. Past and current policies have failed to adequately account for these uncertainties. One
overall recommendation of this paper is that policymakers and their advisors should explicitly identify any decision criteria upon
which they base their judgments or conclusions. A second recommendation is that policy analysis should be explicit about
uncertainties. We offer the eighteen decision rules for fashioning fish recovery decisions in an environment of uncertainty.
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