Implications of Climate Change for Fisheries Management
By Gunnar Knapp
ABSTRACT
The effects of global climate change on fisheries in any given area are very difficult to predict. Scientific ability to predict how changed climate conditions will affect specific species is low. In any given area, changed climate conditions are likely to reduce potential harvests of some species while increasing potential harvests of other species-including potential harvests of species not presently being harvested. Also, as climate changes worldwide, market conditions for not only fish but other agricultural products are also likely to change-in ways that are almost impossible to predict.
Given this uncertainty about future harvests and markets, the more that we expect climate to change in the future, the greater the importance for fisheries management of flexibility: the ability to adapt to dramatic changes in resource and market conditions. This challenges many conventional goals of fishermen and managers, such as harvesting by local fleets and processing by shore-based plants. If we really expect global climate to change, pursuit of these and other conventional goals will make it more difficult to adjust to dramatic changes in resource conditions. Managers also need to plan for how to institute management for species not previously harvested by fishermen which may increase dramatically in abundance and provide new economic opportunities. The paper provides examples of how the incorporation of flexibility as a management goal might affect commercial fisheries management in Alaska.
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