Micro Behavior and Macro Landcover Change: Simulating Deforestation and Reforestation in Indiana over Two Centuries
By Matt Hoffmann, Tom Evans,and Hugh Kelley
ABSTRACT
Prior to European colonization, Indiana was nearly entirely forested. By 1900, only 5-10% of the state was forested, but since this time forestland has rebounded to approximately 20% of the state's landcover. We present a dynamic model of landcover change that simulates this process of deforestation and reforestation in Indiana over time-with the expectation that the model will also lend insight into general dynamics of evolving land-use patterns. We approach this problem assuming that land-use patterns are produced by the interactions of landholders' micro-level economic choices with the biophysical and social systems in which they are embedded. As such we have constructed an agent-based model to explore these relationships. The model simulates socially and economically constrained decisions on a biologically active landscape and explores the feedback inherent between biological systems, socio-economic systems and micro decisions. With the model, we identify factors that produce specific spatial patterns of land-use. Model inputs include extensive commodity price data as well as input price data (dating back to the mid 1800's). The model is empirically validated against data on actual land-use in Indiana using aerial photography (1930's), satellite imagery (1972-present), and other spatial data from the last three decades. This paper presents the initial findings of our land-use model and points to where future research in this critical area is necessary.
KEYWORDS: Deforestation, Reforestation, Land Use, Agent-Based Modeling
 View Biological, Environmental, and Social Processes Session
|
