Issues in Modeling Fish to 2020 within a Global Food Model
By Christopher L. Delgado (IFPRI), Mark W. Rosegrant (IFPRI), Claude B. Courbois (IFPRI) and Mahfuzuddin Ahmed (ICLARM)
ABSTRACT
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the International Center for Living Aquatic Resources Management (ICLARM) are presently attempting to model supply and demand for highly aggregated fish categories within the context of IFPRI's IMPACT global food model (Rosegrant et al. 1995). The analytical purpose is to quantify insights on: (a) the increasingly important role of aquaculture in world food and trade, (b) trade-offs (if any) between low cost food from fish and fishmeal, and (c) trade-offs between the production of high-value fishery exports and food. The main methodological issues concern how to aggregate existing country data from hundreds of species into the maximum of 4 to 6 product categories for which it is feasible to specify supply, demand, and trade parameters for each of 36 countries or country groups. On the supply side, major technological differences need to be highlighted (such as aquaculture or capture), whereas on the demand side issues involve aggregating products with similar demand parameters, regardless of how produced. Problems then arise in deriving a market-clearing algorithm where more than one production technology (say aquaculture and capture) feed into a single consumer market (say high-end finfish). A degree of creativity is called for also in securing separate parameters for 36 country groups. Model structure, interactions with non-fishery food products, available data, practical choices made, and preliminary magnitudes obtained will be discussed.
 View Fish as a Contributor to Food and Income in Developed Countries: Issues and Practical Approaches Session
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