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Modelling Land Use with Multi-agent Systems - Perspectives for the Analysis of Agricultural and Environmental Policies

By Alfons Balmann and Kathrin Happe

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the adequacy and perspectives of multi-agent system (MAS) models in the context of policy support for agricultural and environmental policy makers. In line with the subsidiary priciple policies are increasingly implemented at a local, decentralized level. At this level it is not only interesting to study farms' abashment by policies, but to model and project their adaption behaviour to changing side conditions and policies. However, conventional econometric and farm-sample models are limited in achieving this task because of data availability problems for an econometric analysis on the local level, or the inability to model interdependencies between farms as well as feedback mechanisms markets, farms and the environment. MAS models propose a means for overcoming these problems.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: First, MAS are defined and examples for applications are given. Then, the relevance of MAS models in economics is discussed followed by the description of an examplary model in agricultural economcis. This model is simulated for two initially different farm sizes, with a scenario of sunk-costs for assests and labour and no sunk-costs scenario. The results are analyzed with regard to efficiency, structural and income considerations. Last, the behaviour of MAS are addressed (dynamics, path-dependence, self-organization etc.), as well as problems associated with the implementation of MAS and the analysis of simulation results.

KEYWORDS: multi-agent systems, policy analysis, structural change, path dependence


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